I've got some interesting stories/articles to share for you to peruse at your leisure this weekend and/or while you are trying to avoid interacting with family during Thanksgiving. Some of this news is good, some is neutral, and some is bad. Spoiler alert: it's all going to end up bad in the long term. There I go being pessimistic again.
News out of Afghanistan is that the leader of the Taliban, Mullah Omar, is dead. The information is coming from the Afghan National Directorate of Security (NDS) so I'm going to take it with a grain of salt. Having said that, I tend to believe NDS reporting over some of the crap the US puts out concerning the Taliban. The NDS also claim that due to Mullah Omar's death, Taliban leadership has split into three groups and "differences" have arisen.
Here's my perspective: Mullah Omar hasn't been credibly seen since fleeing Kandahar on a motorbike back when the US invaded Afghanistan. There have been many reports saying he's dead and many reports saying he's alive. On occasion Mullah Omar has issued written statements but those statements could just be some senior Taliban leader claiming to be Mullah Omar. As for Taliban infighting, that's probably pretty likely. During my brief time in Kabul there was information out there about senior Taliban members splintering off or creating discord due to difference of opinions. It's a slight glimmer of hope I have for Afghanistan that the Taliban can't/won't be organized enough to completely over-run the country again.
For some actual optimism, the Somali president claimed that by the end of the year Al Shabaab fighters would be pushed out of all the remaining territory the group holds. For awhile on this blog I was predicting every few months that Al Shabaab only had about 6 months left until it was defeated. Well screw it, I'm saying it again: by the middle of next year Al Shabaab will hold no territory and be nothing but a small terrorist group that is merely a thorn in the side of the Somali government and the African Union.
Feel free to call me out on that in June.
ISIS just captured the Syrian town of Derna...wait did I write Syrian? I meant Libyan. THE FUCK IS ISIS DOING IN LIBYA??!! Calm down, no need to panic. Apparently some punks called the Islamic Youth Council changed their name and flag and pledged their allegiance to ISIS. It helps that members of that particular militia just returned from Syria after fighting for ISIS; so it's not so much as ISIS suddenly expanding and more like ISIS attempting to set up a colony. Eastern Libya was already pretty extremist to begin with (think Alabama/Mississippi of Libya) and the whole country is just a mess so I'm not overly concerned.
I'll become concerned when ISIS can actually make some real friends.
Showing posts with label Somalia. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Somalia. Show all posts
Friday, November 21, 2014
Wednesday, September 10, 2014
Back With Airstrikes and New Al Qaeda Franchises
Okay loyal readers, I'm back. Croatia was excellent, my apartment in Virginia has been packed up, and I have a new place and job in Maryland. It's been an insane few weeks. So what's been going on since I've been gone?
Hezbollah Brigades in Iraq were successful in taking back a town in Salah al Din Province from ISIS. That's good I suppose. Oh they did it with help from US airstrikes? Hmm, a State Department listed terrorist group being supported in its actions against another State Department listed terrorist group. I knew this new chapter in Iraq was going to make for some very strange bedfellows.
In other airstrike news the US targeted the al Shabaab emir in Somalia. Apparently we killed him, good. I'm experienced and cynical enough to know that this strike won't be the end of Shabaab, which like the metaphorical cockroach just won't die, but I do hope Ahmed Abdi Godane's death disrupts Shabaab's operations enough that African Union and Somali forces can gain some more momentum in defeating the group.
Holy crap a new acronym! Al Qaeda has claimed to have formed a new franchise in the Indian Subcontinent called Qaedat al-Jihad in the Indian Subcontinent. In usual Western fashion we're shortening that to Al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent, or AQIS. The group was formed from several groups already operating in the region and brings them all under one banner. I'm interested in seeing how this plays out.
That's all for now. Maybe more in a few days.
Hezbollah Brigades in Iraq were successful in taking back a town in Salah al Din Province from ISIS. That's good I suppose. Oh they did it with help from US airstrikes? Hmm, a State Department listed terrorist group being supported in its actions against another State Department listed terrorist group. I knew this new chapter in Iraq was going to make for some very strange bedfellows.
In other airstrike news the US targeted the al Shabaab emir in Somalia. Apparently we killed him, good. I'm experienced and cynical enough to know that this strike won't be the end of Shabaab, which like the metaphorical cockroach just won't die, but I do hope Ahmed Abdi Godane's death disrupts Shabaab's operations enough that African Union and Somali forces can gain some more momentum in defeating the group.
Holy crap a new acronym! Al Qaeda has claimed to have formed a new franchise in the Indian Subcontinent called Qaedat al-Jihad in the Indian Subcontinent. In usual Western fashion we're shortening that to Al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent, or AQIS. The group was formed from several groups already operating in the region and brings them all under one banner. I'm interested in seeing how this plays out.
That's all for now. Maybe more in a few days.
Wednesday, July 23, 2014
Top 10 "Global Concerns" 2014 Edition
This year's Warhorse Global Concerns is coming a few days early because I'm leaving shortly to go on a quick vacation and I don't want to have to think about it while sitting in a hotel room. As mentioned in last year's Top 10 I compile this list based on what I've read and my own personal analysis...and by analysis I mean bias. This is what the list looked like last year:
10. Nigeria
9. Iran
8. Tunisia
7. Somalia
6. Mali
5. North Korea
4. Iraq
3. Egypt
2. Syria
1. Afghanistan/Pakistan
Loyal readers of this blog likely recall that my Top 10 doesn't change all that much from year to year. There are some fluctuations and some countries fall off or are added, but for the most part conflicts continue to simmer. For this year, Iran, Tunisia, and Mali fell off. I also combined Iraq and Syria because, well, duh. Iran was removed due to my belief that they are way too distracted with Syria/Iraq to really try anything silly in the near term, but we shall see. Tunisia and Mali also fell off because while I don't think those particular conflicts (Tunisia's being residual leftovers from Arab Spring and Mali's being the Tuareg/AQIM uprising) are over, I do believe they are contained...for the most part. Enough blabbering! Here's the list for 2014:
10. South Sudan
Conflict between the government and rebels forced various African countries to send military forces into South Sudan. A peace deal was signed in May, but I don't think peace will last.
9. North Korea
I'm dropping Best Korea from 5th to 9th but I just can't take them off the list entirely. There is just too much tension between North and South and I'm not convinced of Kim Jong-un's sanity. If I were China, I would attempt regime change.
8. Xinjiang, China
Speaking of China...something is afoot in the western region of Xinjiang. Is there a red line for the Muslim Uighur population and how long before they attempt a full on revolt?
7. Somalia
African nations contributing peacekeeping/counter insurgency forces to Somalia continue to find themselves stretched thin by other conflicts. Al Shabaab has taken advantage and brought the fight to Kenya on a few occasions.
6. Nigeria
Hashtag activism isn't going to stop Boko Haram. Especially when I suspect they may be winning.
5. Egypt
There's a war in the Sinai but nobody seems to care. Things aren't exactly peachy in the west either.
4. Libya
I haven't been paying much attention here. From what I can gather there are lots of militia groups claiming territory and fighting over neighborhoods in Tripoli and Benghazi. The government is pretty much ineffective. What happens when you only help with one half of regime change? The situation in Libya happens.
3. Ukraine
This potential WWIII flash point certainly came out of nowhere.
2. Afghanistan/Pakistan
The Taliban made a "fighting season" push in Helmand but were not all that successful thanks to the Afghan security forces. The country also managed to pull off presidential elections. A glimmer of hope?
1. Iraq/Syria
A clusterfuck. That is all.
Edit: I did not include Israel-Palestine/Gaza on this list because conflict between those two is essentially "same shit, different day".
10. Nigeria
9. Iran
8. Tunisia
7. Somalia
6. Mali
5. North Korea
4. Iraq
3. Egypt
2. Syria
1. Afghanistan/Pakistan
Loyal readers of this blog likely recall that my Top 10 doesn't change all that much from year to year. There are some fluctuations and some countries fall off or are added, but for the most part conflicts continue to simmer. For this year, Iran, Tunisia, and Mali fell off. I also combined Iraq and Syria because, well, duh. Iran was removed due to my belief that they are way too distracted with Syria/Iraq to really try anything silly in the near term, but we shall see. Tunisia and Mali also fell off because while I don't think those particular conflicts (Tunisia's being residual leftovers from Arab Spring and Mali's being the Tuareg/AQIM uprising) are over, I do believe they are contained...for the most part. Enough blabbering! Here's the list for 2014:
10. South Sudan
Conflict between the government and rebels forced various African countries to send military forces into South Sudan. A peace deal was signed in May, but I don't think peace will last.
9. North Korea
I'm dropping Best Korea from 5th to 9th but I just can't take them off the list entirely. There is just too much tension between North and South and I'm not convinced of Kim Jong-un's sanity. If I were China, I would attempt regime change.
8. Xinjiang, China
Speaking of China...something is afoot in the western region of Xinjiang. Is there a red line for the Muslim Uighur population and how long before they attempt a full on revolt?
7. Somalia
African nations contributing peacekeeping/counter insurgency forces to Somalia continue to find themselves stretched thin by other conflicts. Al Shabaab has taken advantage and brought the fight to Kenya on a few occasions.
6. Nigeria
Hashtag activism isn't going to stop Boko Haram. Especially when I suspect they may be winning.
5. Egypt
There's a war in the Sinai but nobody seems to care. Things aren't exactly peachy in the west either.
4. Libya
I haven't been paying much attention here. From what I can gather there are lots of militia groups claiming territory and fighting over neighborhoods in Tripoli and Benghazi. The government is pretty much ineffective. What happens when you only help with one half of regime change? The situation in Libya happens.
3. Ukraine
This potential WWIII flash point certainly came out of nowhere.
2. Afghanistan/Pakistan
The Taliban made a "fighting season" push in Helmand but were not all that successful thanks to the Afghan security forces. The country also managed to pull off presidential elections. A glimmer of hope?
1. Iraq/Syria
A clusterfuck. That is all.
Edit: I did not include Israel-Palestine/Gaza on this list because conflict between those two is essentially "same shit, different day".
Sunday, September 22, 2013
Al Shabaab Back From The Dead?
It's been awhile since I discussed Al Shabaab, the Al Qaida-linked, Somalia-based organization. Several times on this blog I mentioned that I assessed the organization to be all but dead. Al Shabaab has been losing territory and towns in Somalia to the African Union and has been unable to really mount any offensive action, although they still control a chunk of southern Somalia. From what I've seen all the group has been able to do is conduct a few terrorist/insurgent type attacks in Mogadishu such as this grenade attack in the Bakara Market.
Well it appears Al Shabaab has upped the ante, so to speak, and launched a Mumbai style attack in Nairobi, Kenya. The attack/standoff in the mall is still on-going as I type this but so far 39 people have been killed and the gunmen apparently are holding hostages.
Does this signal a shift in location and tactics by Al Shabaab? It would be an interesting move by the organization if they have decided to abandon Somalia and focus their attention on Kenya which has contributed greatly to the African Union mission in Somalia against Al Shabaab. However, what is most likely occuring is not a shift entirely of the group per se, but merely an attack designed to shift Kenyan popular opinion against the government's operations in Somalia. If Al Shabaab can force Kenya to re-allocate resources to protecting itself and have less focus on Somalia, then it just might be possible for Al Shabaab to go back on the offensive in Somalia.
It's an ugly world out there.
Well it appears Al Shabaab has upped the ante, so to speak, and launched a Mumbai style attack in Nairobi, Kenya. The attack/standoff in the mall is still on-going as I type this but so far 39 people have been killed and the gunmen apparently are holding hostages.
Does this signal a shift in location and tactics by Al Shabaab? It would be an interesting move by the organization if they have decided to abandon Somalia and focus their attention on Kenya which has contributed greatly to the African Union mission in Somalia against Al Shabaab. However, what is most likely occuring is not a shift entirely of the group per se, but merely an attack designed to shift Kenyan popular opinion against the government's operations in Somalia. If Al Shabaab can force Kenya to re-allocate resources to protecting itself and have less focus on Somalia, then it just might be possible for Al Shabaab to go back on the offensive in Somalia.
It's an ugly world out there.
Sunday, July 28, 2013
Top 10 "Global Concerns" 2013 Edition
It's that time of the year again (why I originally started this in late July I will never remember) for Warhorse Intel's Top 10 "Global Concerns". I compile this list based on the reading I do throughout the year and is entirely my own biased assessment. 2012's list is here. Here's what it looked like:
10. Greece
9. Iran
8. Mexico
7. Kurd/Arab line Iraq
6. Somalia
5. North Korea
4. Yemen
3. Mali
2. Syria
1. Afghanistan/Pakistan
Once again the list between this year and last year are very similar. I'm not going to go in depth as much with each of these or provide links to back up my statements because 1) I don't have a whole lot of time and 2) I'm feeling especially lazy and 3) I'm in Afghanistan, what do you want from me? You're lucky you get a list at all. Anyway, as for the changes...Greece fell off because I think their economic issues are not going to lead to much violence beyond rioting. Mexico also came off as it appears from my little corner of the world that the narco gangs may be losing influence and power, but we'll see. Yemen was also dropped because Al Qaida In the Arabic Peninsula (AQAP) does not appear to be gaining strength and that conflict may be more tribal than anything else and is unlikely to spread. Now, on to the 2013 list!
10. Nigeria
Violence caused by Boko Haram led to a goverment crackdown in the north. That crackdown has led to more violence. My question is, when will Al Qaida officially jump into the fray and openly support Boko Haram?
9. Iran
Maintaining the spot at #9 only because at any time they could announce that they have a nuclear weapon which would lead to an Israeli airstrike which would then lead to...well...chaos. Will a new president lead to any significant change? This analyst says no.
8. Tunisia
Arab Spring woke up some demons in Tunisia. Extremists are becoming increasingly vocal and political assassinations are on the rise. Al Qaida In the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) is also likely looking for a spot to cause some havoc after being routed in Mali.
7. Somalia
Will Shabaab ever quit? I keep saying they are 6 months from being dead but they keep refusing to die.
6. Mali
The Tuareg tribe took over the north with the help of AQIM and friends. The Tauregs immediately regretted this decision and worked with the French to boot AQIM. Tentative peace has followed. I don't think it's going to last.
5. North Korea
For awhile there I thought war really was going to break out but then cooler heads prevailed. I keep them on this list because one day Best Korea may just actually do it and invade again.
4. Iraq
It's no longer just the Kurd/Arab line that's a problem. Violence has reached 2008 levels throughout the country. Everything Prime Minister Maliki does just creates more tension. At what point do the Sunnis revolt? At what point do the Kurds declare independence? At what point does the US return?
3. Egypt
Holy hell this place escalated quickly. Fallen regimes, Muslim Brotherhood in charge, coups, violence, and a growing extremist threat in the Sinai.
2. Syria
A clusterfuck.
1. Afghanistan/Pakistan
I've spent nearly 9 months here in Afghanistan and now have the hands on experience to repeat what I have said in my previous Top 10s...fuck this place.
10. Greece
9. Iran
8. Mexico
7. Kurd/Arab line Iraq
6. Somalia
5. North Korea
4. Yemen
3. Mali
2. Syria
1. Afghanistan/Pakistan
Once again the list between this year and last year are very similar. I'm not going to go in depth as much with each of these or provide links to back up my statements because 1) I don't have a whole lot of time and 2) I'm feeling especially lazy and 3) I'm in Afghanistan, what do you want from me? You're lucky you get a list at all. Anyway, as for the changes...Greece fell off because I think their economic issues are not going to lead to much violence beyond rioting. Mexico also came off as it appears from my little corner of the world that the narco gangs may be losing influence and power, but we'll see. Yemen was also dropped because Al Qaida In the Arabic Peninsula (AQAP) does not appear to be gaining strength and that conflict may be more tribal than anything else and is unlikely to spread. Now, on to the 2013 list!
10. Nigeria
Violence caused by Boko Haram led to a goverment crackdown in the north. That crackdown has led to more violence. My question is, when will Al Qaida officially jump into the fray and openly support Boko Haram?
9. Iran
Maintaining the spot at #9 only because at any time they could announce that they have a nuclear weapon which would lead to an Israeli airstrike which would then lead to...well...chaos. Will a new president lead to any significant change? This analyst says no.
8. Tunisia
Arab Spring woke up some demons in Tunisia. Extremists are becoming increasingly vocal and political assassinations are on the rise. Al Qaida In the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) is also likely looking for a spot to cause some havoc after being routed in Mali.
7. Somalia
Will Shabaab ever quit? I keep saying they are 6 months from being dead but they keep refusing to die.
6. Mali
The Tuareg tribe took over the north with the help of AQIM and friends. The Tauregs immediately regretted this decision and worked with the French to boot AQIM. Tentative peace has followed. I don't think it's going to last.
5. North Korea
For awhile there I thought war really was going to break out but then cooler heads prevailed. I keep them on this list because one day Best Korea may just actually do it and invade again.
4. Iraq
It's no longer just the Kurd/Arab line that's a problem. Violence has reached 2008 levels throughout the country. Everything Prime Minister Maliki does just creates more tension. At what point do the Sunnis revolt? At what point do the Kurds declare independence? At what point does the US return?
3. Egypt
Holy hell this place escalated quickly. Fallen regimes, Muslim Brotherhood in charge, coups, violence, and a growing extremist threat in the Sinai.
2. Syria
A clusterfuck.
1. Afghanistan/Pakistan
I've spent nearly 9 months here in Afghanistan and now have the hands on experience to repeat what I have said in my previous Top 10s...fuck this place.
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