It's been awhile since I discussed Al Shabaab, the Al Qaida-linked, Somalia-based organization. Several times on this blog I mentioned that I assessed the organization to be all but dead. Al Shabaab has been losing territory and towns in Somalia to the African Union and has been unable to really mount any offensive action, although they still control a chunk of southern Somalia. From what I've seen all the group has been able to do is conduct a few terrorist/insurgent type attacks in Mogadishu such as this grenade attack in the Bakara Market.
Well it appears Al Shabaab has upped the ante, so to speak, and launched a Mumbai style attack in Nairobi, Kenya. The attack/standoff in the mall is still on-going as I type this but so far 39 people have been killed and the gunmen apparently are holding hostages.
Does this signal a shift in location and tactics by Al Shabaab? It would be an interesting move by the organization if they have decided to abandon Somalia and focus their attention on Kenya which has contributed greatly to the African Union mission in Somalia against Al Shabaab. However, what is most likely occuring is not a shift entirely of the group per se, but merely an attack designed to shift Kenyan popular opinion against the government's operations in Somalia. If Al Shabaab can force Kenya to re-allocate resources to protecting itself and have less focus on Somalia, then it just might be possible for Al Shabaab to go back on the offensive in Somalia.
It's an ugly world out there.
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