When I last posted about Yemen, that country appeared to be potentially collapsing towards civil war. Or was already in a civil war. Depends how pessimistic you want to be. The Shia Houthi rebels from the north had taken the capital of Sana'a, booted out the prime minister, made a peace agreement with the president, and then started fighting with AQAP who were already assisting an insurgency in the south.
Well, things haven't exactly gone well for Yemen since then (no surprise). Two days ago, the Houthis stormed the presidential palace and shelled the residence of the president (who wasn't staying in the palace) in what was essentially a coup. A cease-fire was declared, but it appears the president, who I assumed was merely a puppet of the Houthis, has resigned along with his cabinet.
So the Houthis now have complete control over the capital and likely the government of Yemen. This certainly does not please the Sunnis in the south of Yemen, who are also still dealing with AQAP and are in no position to help establish a new government or demand representation in a new government. I see a split in the near future for Yemen.
Oh, ISIS is popping up there too. Hooray!
Showing posts with label AQAP. Show all posts
Showing posts with label AQAP. Show all posts
Thursday, January 22, 2015
Thursday, January 8, 2015
AQAP Flexing Muscle?
I've held off for over a day now from discussing the events in Paris.The reason is due to my typical response of wanting to do some kind of analysis, and then usually being wrong, examples being the 2011 terrorist attack in Norway (I figured Islamic terrorism) and the Boston Bombings (I guessed domestic white supremacists). My gut instinct for this attack was Chechnyans due to the tactics and apparent professionalism of the attackers. This may be some bias of mine since the Boston bombers were of Chechnyan descent. I didn't think (and still don't) they were "lone wolves" and assessed they were trained, funded, and ordered by either Al Qaeda In the Arabian Peninsula or Al Qaeda In the Indian Subcontinent.
I wasn't completely pulling this out of my ass. Witnesses state the attackers shouted "Allah Akbar" and said they were "Al Qaeda". AQAP from my perspective is the AQ franchise most likely to export terrorism at this time, however the attacks are similar to attacks in Pakistan and India, hence my thoughts pulling towards AQIS.
Authorities are now saying that two of the suspects are brothers, born in France of Algerian descent. One of the brothers had been previously arrested for sending fighters to Iraq and Abu Musab al Zarqawi's insurgent cells; those cells and networks would become Al Qaida in Iraq and eventually ISIS.
So was this ISIS attacking France for air strikes in Iraq and Syria? No. Remember, ISIS and Al Qaeda have had a falling out. Also, ISIS is a tad busy right now and probably doesn't have the funding or the resources to carry out an overseas attack at the moment. The attackers also are reported to have said they were "Al Qaeda from Yemen", interesting thing to say when you're of Algerian heritage. But if the attackers are of Algerian descent, is Al Qaeda In the Islamic Magreb to blame? I'm not ruling them out. AQAP hasn't done much since fighting for Tuareg independence in Mali and then turning on the Tuaregs turning what should have been an easy win into a clusterfuck with French troops occupying Tuareg territory in Mali. Wait...French troops? Hmm.
So long story short, I'm blaming AQAP. I foresee more drone strikes in Yemen's future.
I wasn't completely pulling this out of my ass. Witnesses state the attackers shouted "Allah Akbar" and said they were "Al Qaeda". AQAP from my perspective is the AQ franchise most likely to export terrorism at this time, however the attacks are similar to attacks in Pakistan and India, hence my thoughts pulling towards AQIS.
Authorities are now saying that two of the suspects are brothers, born in France of Algerian descent. One of the brothers had been previously arrested for sending fighters to Iraq and Abu Musab al Zarqawi's insurgent cells; those cells and networks would become Al Qaida in Iraq and eventually ISIS.
So was this ISIS attacking France for air strikes in Iraq and Syria? No. Remember, ISIS and Al Qaeda have had a falling out. Also, ISIS is a tad busy right now and probably doesn't have the funding or the resources to carry out an overseas attack at the moment. The attackers also are reported to have said they were "Al Qaeda from Yemen", interesting thing to say when you're of Algerian heritage. But if the attackers are of Algerian descent, is Al Qaeda In the Islamic Magreb to blame? I'm not ruling them out. AQAP hasn't done much since fighting for Tuareg independence in Mali and then turning on the Tuaregs turning what should have been an easy win into a clusterfuck with French troops occupying Tuareg territory in Mali. Wait...French troops? Hmm.
So long story short, I'm blaming AQAP. I foresee more drone strikes in Yemen's future.
Tuesday, October 28, 2014
Yemen Being Yemen
While I was distracted with tiny little inconveniences such as living my life, Yemen has become quite the busy place. A quick summary: Houthi rebels from the north went on the offensive (much like ISIS did in Iraq), captured the capital of Sana'a, forced the prime minister to step down, occupied multiple government buildings, signed a political deal with the Yemenis president, and then started battling Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula fighters when their offensive collided with AQAP's offensive. At least that's how I'm interpreting all of what I'm reading.
Pause for breath.
First off, who the fuck are the Houthis? I'm showing my Yemen ignorance because apparently they've been around for awhile. Read the BBC article on them but in a nutshell they are a political movement/rebel group that follow a minority brand of Shia Islam. The Houthis did not particularly like the prime minister and after a military offensive in the north along with protests in the capital, they captured Sana'a. Of course, once you have the capital people start paying attention to what you want and President Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi quickly signed a deal with the Houthis giving them what they wanted, mostly a new government under a new prime minister.
The Houthis aren't done, however. After taking Sana'a they've continued their offensive momentum and pushed into central and western Yemen capturing the port of al-Hudaydah which is Yemen's second largest port next to Aden. By moving into central Yemen, the Houthis have now come into conflict with fighters and tribal members loyal to our old friends Al Qaeda who have blunted the Houthi advance.
For a short while, Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula was seen as the AQ franchise most likely to cause trouble for The West and there were rumors Yemen may become the next Afghanistan. If you recall, The Underwear Bomber was part of a plot by AQAP to conduct attacks against the United States. Then AQAP fell out of the news and we all became distracted by ISIS, Ebola, The Bachelor, and whatever else we in The West (America) tend to get distracted by.
Of course I realize that I'm over-simplifying this conflict. The Houthis didn't just come out of nowhere and AQAP hasn't become entrenched in southern and eastern Yemen by accident. Yemen is a complicated place full of tribal grievances and political strife that goes back to the civil war in 1994. Well, more likely the conflict can be traced to when Yemen was actually two separate countries, or possibly when it was under British colonial rule. Or maybe the Ottomans are the blame? No no no, this must go back to the Ayyubid Dynasty.
But what can solve this everlasting tribal/political/cultural crisis? Airstrikes...duh.
Update: I'm aware that U.S. airstrikes are not meant to solve the conflict in Yemen. They are for killing AQAP douchewaffles.
Pause for breath.
First off, who the fuck are the Houthis? I'm showing my Yemen ignorance because apparently they've been around for awhile. Read the BBC article on them but in a nutshell they are a political movement/rebel group that follow a minority brand of Shia Islam. The Houthis did not particularly like the prime minister and after a military offensive in the north along with protests in the capital, they captured Sana'a. Of course, once you have the capital people start paying attention to what you want and President Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi quickly signed a deal with the Houthis giving them what they wanted, mostly a new government under a new prime minister.
The Houthis aren't done, however. After taking Sana'a they've continued their offensive momentum and pushed into central and western Yemen capturing the port of al-Hudaydah which is Yemen's second largest port next to Aden. By moving into central Yemen, the Houthis have now come into conflict with fighters and tribal members loyal to our old friends Al Qaeda who have blunted the Houthi advance.
For a short while, Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula was seen as the AQ franchise most likely to cause trouble for The West and there were rumors Yemen may become the next Afghanistan. If you recall, The Underwear Bomber was part of a plot by AQAP to conduct attacks against the United States. Then AQAP fell out of the news and we all became distracted by ISIS, Ebola, The Bachelor, and whatever else we in The West (America) tend to get distracted by.
Of course I realize that I'm over-simplifying this conflict. The Houthis didn't just come out of nowhere and AQAP hasn't become entrenched in southern and eastern Yemen by accident. Yemen is a complicated place full of tribal grievances and political strife that goes back to the civil war in 1994. Well, more likely the conflict can be traced to when Yemen was actually two separate countries, or possibly when it was under British colonial rule. Or maybe the Ottomans are the blame? No no no, this must go back to the Ayyubid Dynasty.
But what can solve this everlasting tribal/political/cultural crisis? Airstrikes...duh.
Update: I'm aware that U.S. airstrikes are not meant to solve the conflict in Yemen. They are for killing AQAP douchewaffles.
Sunday, July 28, 2013
Top 10 "Global Concerns" 2013 Edition
It's that time of the year again (why I originally started this in late July I will never remember) for Warhorse Intel's Top 10 "Global Concerns". I compile this list based on the reading I do throughout the year and is entirely my own biased assessment. 2012's list is here. Here's what it looked like:
10. Greece
9. Iran
8. Mexico
7. Kurd/Arab line Iraq
6. Somalia
5. North Korea
4. Yemen
3. Mali
2. Syria
1. Afghanistan/Pakistan
Once again the list between this year and last year are very similar. I'm not going to go in depth as much with each of these or provide links to back up my statements because 1) I don't have a whole lot of time and 2) I'm feeling especially lazy and 3) I'm in Afghanistan, what do you want from me? You're lucky you get a list at all. Anyway, as for the changes...Greece fell off because I think their economic issues are not going to lead to much violence beyond rioting. Mexico also came off as it appears from my little corner of the world that the narco gangs may be losing influence and power, but we'll see. Yemen was also dropped because Al Qaida In the Arabic Peninsula (AQAP) does not appear to be gaining strength and that conflict may be more tribal than anything else and is unlikely to spread. Now, on to the 2013 list!
10. Nigeria
Violence caused by Boko Haram led to a goverment crackdown in the north. That crackdown has led to more violence. My question is, when will Al Qaida officially jump into the fray and openly support Boko Haram?
9. Iran
Maintaining the spot at #9 only because at any time they could announce that they have a nuclear weapon which would lead to an Israeli airstrike which would then lead to...well...chaos. Will a new president lead to any significant change? This analyst says no.
8. Tunisia
Arab Spring woke up some demons in Tunisia. Extremists are becoming increasingly vocal and political assassinations are on the rise. Al Qaida In the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) is also likely looking for a spot to cause some havoc after being routed in Mali.
7. Somalia
Will Shabaab ever quit? I keep saying they are 6 months from being dead but they keep refusing to die.
6. Mali
The Tuareg tribe took over the north with the help of AQIM and friends. The Tauregs immediately regretted this decision and worked with the French to boot AQIM. Tentative peace has followed. I don't think it's going to last.
5. North Korea
For awhile there I thought war really was going to break out but then cooler heads prevailed. I keep them on this list because one day Best Korea may just actually do it and invade again.
4. Iraq
It's no longer just the Kurd/Arab line that's a problem. Violence has reached 2008 levels throughout the country. Everything Prime Minister Maliki does just creates more tension. At what point do the Sunnis revolt? At what point do the Kurds declare independence? At what point does the US return?
3. Egypt
Holy hell this place escalated quickly. Fallen regimes, Muslim Brotherhood in charge, coups, violence, and a growing extremist threat in the Sinai.
2. Syria
A clusterfuck.
1. Afghanistan/Pakistan
I've spent nearly 9 months here in Afghanistan and now have the hands on experience to repeat what I have said in my previous Top 10s...fuck this place.
10. Greece
9. Iran
8. Mexico
7. Kurd/Arab line Iraq
6. Somalia
5. North Korea
4. Yemen
3. Mali
2. Syria
1. Afghanistan/Pakistan
Once again the list between this year and last year are very similar. I'm not going to go in depth as much with each of these or provide links to back up my statements because 1) I don't have a whole lot of time and 2) I'm feeling especially lazy and 3) I'm in Afghanistan, what do you want from me? You're lucky you get a list at all. Anyway, as for the changes...Greece fell off because I think their economic issues are not going to lead to much violence beyond rioting. Mexico also came off as it appears from my little corner of the world that the narco gangs may be losing influence and power, but we'll see. Yemen was also dropped because Al Qaida In the Arabic Peninsula (AQAP) does not appear to be gaining strength and that conflict may be more tribal than anything else and is unlikely to spread. Now, on to the 2013 list!
10. Nigeria
Violence caused by Boko Haram led to a goverment crackdown in the north. That crackdown has led to more violence. My question is, when will Al Qaida officially jump into the fray and openly support Boko Haram?
9. Iran
Maintaining the spot at #9 only because at any time they could announce that they have a nuclear weapon which would lead to an Israeli airstrike which would then lead to...well...chaos. Will a new president lead to any significant change? This analyst says no.
8. Tunisia
Arab Spring woke up some demons in Tunisia. Extremists are becoming increasingly vocal and political assassinations are on the rise. Al Qaida In the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) is also likely looking for a spot to cause some havoc after being routed in Mali.
7. Somalia
Will Shabaab ever quit? I keep saying they are 6 months from being dead but they keep refusing to die.
6. Mali
The Tuareg tribe took over the north with the help of AQIM and friends. The Tauregs immediately regretted this decision and worked with the French to boot AQIM. Tentative peace has followed. I don't think it's going to last.
5. North Korea
For awhile there I thought war really was going to break out but then cooler heads prevailed. I keep them on this list because one day Best Korea may just actually do it and invade again.
4. Iraq
It's no longer just the Kurd/Arab line that's a problem. Violence has reached 2008 levels throughout the country. Everything Prime Minister Maliki does just creates more tension. At what point do the Sunnis revolt? At what point do the Kurds declare independence? At what point does the US return?
3. Egypt
Holy hell this place escalated quickly. Fallen regimes, Muslim Brotherhood in charge, coups, violence, and a growing extremist threat in the Sinai.
2. Syria
A clusterfuck.
1. Afghanistan/Pakistan
I've spent nearly 9 months here in Afghanistan and now have the hands on experience to repeat what I have said in my previous Top 10s...fuck this place.
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