Well I certainly didn't see Nigeria's Boko Haram declaring allegiance with The Islamic State©, although I probably should have seen it as a possibility. Overall this doesn't exactly change anything but the announcement, which apparently is legit, does show a shifting in power from the global jihadist dominance of Al Qaeda to the upstart ISIS/ISIL/IS. Due to my lack of knowledge in the nuances of African and Nigerian Islamic insurgency I would have assumed Boko Haram would have aligned itself with AQIM over ISIS, but apparently an offshoot of Boko Haram, Ansaru, has already done that. Boko Haram's brutal tactics are more similar to ISIS' than AQ's anyway.
ISIS is really building up that street cred.
To add to the fun, ISIS has apparently gotten a foothold in Afghanistan. An Afghan army general is claiming there are ISIS elements recruiting in some of the southern provinces, which is very interesting since the southern Afghan provinces are the Taliban's home turf. Could this be a sign that the Afghan population is turning against the Taliban and that the Taliban don't have the control that they claim? Possibly, but it concerns me that instead of fighting the Taliban with the government, or at least not supporting the Taliban, there are individuals who choose to join ISIS instead. At least the Taliban was the legit (sort of and not really in any internationally acknowledged way) government of Afghanistan at one point.
Where will ISIS pop up next?
Insurgents, counter-insurgents, and my frustrations in dealing with both. Puppies on occasion.
Showing posts with label Afghanistan. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Afghanistan. Show all posts
Sunday, March 8, 2015
Wednesday, December 31, 2014
Another Mission Ends...Sort Of
As 2014 comes to a close I would be remiss if I didn't remind my readers that ISAF mission in Afghanistan is officially over. The conflict, of course, is far from over; but the combat mission for NATO and the US has come to an end. I still have some colleagues and friends over there at the moment and I doubt they see Afghanistan as anything close to over.
The Taliban, to no one's surprise, is claiming victory. However, I don't believe true victory will come for them very easily, or at all, in the near future.
My thoughts on this official ending to the United States' longest conflict: meh. Iraq was much more important to my life, and during my time in the Army Afghanistan was always "that other thing happening". Even though I did a year in the Stan, it felt much more like a job than anything else. I never felt a true part of it. The best way to describe my feelings are those of an individual who shows up late to a movie and asks those around him to catch him up. I had a better understanding of Iraq, and likely always will.
The Taliban, to no one's surprise, is claiming victory. However, I don't believe true victory will come for them very easily, or at all, in the near future.
My thoughts on this official ending to the United States' longest conflict: meh. Iraq was much more important to my life, and during my time in the Army Afghanistan was always "that other thing happening". Even though I did a year in the Stan, it felt much more like a job than anything else. I never felt a true part of it. The best way to describe my feelings are those of an individual who shows up late to a movie and asks those around him to catch him up. I had a better understanding of Iraq, and likely always will.
Wednesday, December 3, 2014
Is Helmand Falling To the Taliban Already?
It may no longer be the fighting season in Afghanistan due to the onset of winter but someone forgot to tell that to the Taliban operating in Helmand Province. Late last month, Taliban forces attacked Camp Bastion which was turned over to Afghanistan by U.S. Marines and the British Army in October. According to Afghan press, the fighting lasted a couple of days and the Taliban were able to breach the base perimeter and occupy some buildings.
You may remember, Camp Bastion was attacked in September 2012 and the Taliban were able to destroy several Marine aircraft in that assault.
Taliban forces have also attacked Afghan Army bases in the Sangin and Shorabak areas of Helmand Province. These guys aren't messing around.
Next Spring is going to be very very interesting.
You may remember, Camp Bastion was attacked in September 2012 and the Taliban were able to destroy several Marine aircraft in that assault.
Taliban forces have also attacked Afghan Army bases in the Sangin and Shorabak areas of Helmand Province. These guys aren't messing around.
Next Spring is going to be very very interesting.
Friday, November 21, 2014
Taliban, Shabaab, and ISIS...Oh My
I've got some interesting stories/articles to share for you to peruse at your leisure this weekend and/or while you are trying to avoid interacting with family during Thanksgiving. Some of this news is good, some is neutral, and some is bad. Spoiler alert: it's all going to end up bad in the long term. There I go being pessimistic again.
News out of Afghanistan is that the leader of the Taliban, Mullah Omar, is dead. The information is coming from the Afghan National Directorate of Security (NDS) so I'm going to take it with a grain of salt. Having said that, I tend to believe NDS reporting over some of the crap the US puts out concerning the Taliban. The NDS also claim that due to Mullah Omar's death, Taliban leadership has split into three groups and "differences" have arisen.
Here's my perspective: Mullah Omar hasn't been credibly seen since fleeing Kandahar on a motorbike back when the US invaded Afghanistan. There have been many reports saying he's dead and many reports saying he's alive. On occasion Mullah Omar has issued written statements but those statements could just be some senior Taliban leader claiming to be Mullah Omar. As for Taliban infighting, that's probably pretty likely. During my brief time in Kabul there was information out there about senior Taliban members splintering off or creating discord due to difference of opinions. It's a slight glimmer of hope I have for Afghanistan that the Taliban can't/won't be organized enough to completely over-run the country again.
For some actual optimism, the Somali president claimed that by the end of the year Al Shabaab fighters would be pushed out of all the remaining territory the group holds. For awhile on this blog I was predicting every few months that Al Shabaab only had about 6 months left until it was defeated. Well screw it, I'm saying it again: by the middle of next year Al Shabaab will hold no territory and be nothing but a small terrorist group that is merely a thorn in the side of the Somali government and the African Union.
Feel free to call me out on that in June.
ISIS just captured the Syrian town of Derna...wait did I write Syrian? I meant Libyan. THE FUCK IS ISIS DOING IN LIBYA??!! Calm down, no need to panic. Apparently some punks called the Islamic Youth Council changed their name and flag and pledged their allegiance to ISIS. It helps that members of that particular militia just returned from Syria after fighting for ISIS; so it's not so much as ISIS suddenly expanding and more like ISIS attempting to set up a colony. Eastern Libya was already pretty extremist to begin with (think Alabama/Mississippi of Libya) and the whole country is just a mess so I'm not overly concerned.
I'll become concerned when ISIS can actually make some real friends.
News out of Afghanistan is that the leader of the Taliban, Mullah Omar, is dead. The information is coming from the Afghan National Directorate of Security (NDS) so I'm going to take it with a grain of salt. Having said that, I tend to believe NDS reporting over some of the crap the US puts out concerning the Taliban. The NDS also claim that due to Mullah Omar's death, Taliban leadership has split into three groups and "differences" have arisen.
Here's my perspective: Mullah Omar hasn't been credibly seen since fleeing Kandahar on a motorbike back when the US invaded Afghanistan. There have been many reports saying he's dead and many reports saying he's alive. On occasion Mullah Omar has issued written statements but those statements could just be some senior Taliban leader claiming to be Mullah Omar. As for Taliban infighting, that's probably pretty likely. During my brief time in Kabul there was information out there about senior Taliban members splintering off or creating discord due to difference of opinions. It's a slight glimmer of hope I have for Afghanistan that the Taliban can't/won't be organized enough to completely over-run the country again.
For some actual optimism, the Somali president claimed that by the end of the year Al Shabaab fighters would be pushed out of all the remaining territory the group holds. For awhile on this blog I was predicting every few months that Al Shabaab only had about 6 months left until it was defeated. Well screw it, I'm saying it again: by the middle of next year Al Shabaab will hold no territory and be nothing but a small terrorist group that is merely a thorn in the side of the Somali government and the African Union.
Feel free to call me out on that in June.
ISIS just captured the Syrian town of Derna...wait did I write Syrian? I meant Libyan. THE FUCK IS ISIS DOING IN LIBYA??!! Calm down, no need to panic. Apparently some punks called the Islamic Youth Council changed their name and flag and pledged their allegiance to ISIS. It helps that members of that particular militia just returned from Syria after fighting for ISIS; so it's not so much as ISIS suddenly expanding and more like ISIS attempting to set up a colony. Eastern Libya was already pretty extremist to begin with (think Alabama/Mississippi of Libya) and the whole country is just a mess so I'm not overly concerned.
I'll become concerned when ISIS can actually make some real friends.
Wednesday, July 23, 2014
Top 10 "Global Concerns" 2014 Edition
This year's Warhorse Global Concerns is coming a few days early because I'm leaving shortly to go on a quick vacation and I don't want to have to think about it while sitting in a hotel room. As mentioned in last year's Top 10 I compile this list based on what I've read and my own personal analysis...and by analysis I mean bias. This is what the list looked like last year:
10. Nigeria
9. Iran
8. Tunisia
7. Somalia
6. Mali
5. North Korea
4. Iraq
3. Egypt
2. Syria
1. Afghanistan/Pakistan
Loyal readers of this blog likely recall that my Top 10 doesn't change all that much from year to year. There are some fluctuations and some countries fall off or are added, but for the most part conflicts continue to simmer. For this year, Iran, Tunisia, and Mali fell off. I also combined Iraq and Syria because, well, duh. Iran was removed due to my belief that they are way too distracted with Syria/Iraq to really try anything silly in the near term, but we shall see. Tunisia and Mali also fell off because while I don't think those particular conflicts (Tunisia's being residual leftovers from Arab Spring and Mali's being the Tuareg/AQIM uprising) are over, I do believe they are contained...for the most part. Enough blabbering! Here's the list for 2014:
10. South Sudan
Conflict between the government and rebels forced various African countries to send military forces into South Sudan. A peace deal was signed in May, but I don't think peace will last.
9. North Korea
I'm dropping Best Korea from 5th to 9th but I just can't take them off the list entirely. There is just too much tension between North and South and I'm not convinced of Kim Jong-un's sanity. If I were China, I would attempt regime change.
8. Xinjiang, China
Speaking of China...something is afoot in the western region of Xinjiang. Is there a red line for the Muslim Uighur population and how long before they attempt a full on revolt?
7. Somalia
African nations contributing peacekeeping/counter insurgency forces to Somalia continue to find themselves stretched thin by other conflicts. Al Shabaab has taken advantage and brought the fight to Kenya on a few occasions.
6. Nigeria
Hashtag activism isn't going to stop Boko Haram. Especially when I suspect they may be winning.
5. Egypt
There's a war in the Sinai but nobody seems to care. Things aren't exactly peachy in the west either.
4. Libya
I haven't been paying much attention here. From what I can gather there are lots of militia groups claiming territory and fighting over neighborhoods in Tripoli and Benghazi. The government is pretty much ineffective. What happens when you only help with one half of regime change? The situation in Libya happens.
3. Ukraine
This potential WWIII flash point certainly came out of nowhere.
2. Afghanistan/Pakistan
The Taliban made a "fighting season" push in Helmand but were not all that successful thanks to the Afghan security forces. The country also managed to pull off presidential elections. A glimmer of hope?
1. Iraq/Syria
A clusterfuck. That is all.
Edit: I did not include Israel-Palestine/Gaza on this list because conflict between those two is essentially "same shit, different day".
10. Nigeria
9. Iran
8. Tunisia
7. Somalia
6. Mali
5. North Korea
4. Iraq
3. Egypt
2. Syria
1. Afghanistan/Pakistan
Loyal readers of this blog likely recall that my Top 10 doesn't change all that much from year to year. There are some fluctuations and some countries fall off or are added, but for the most part conflicts continue to simmer. For this year, Iran, Tunisia, and Mali fell off. I also combined Iraq and Syria because, well, duh. Iran was removed due to my belief that they are way too distracted with Syria/Iraq to really try anything silly in the near term, but we shall see. Tunisia and Mali also fell off because while I don't think those particular conflicts (Tunisia's being residual leftovers from Arab Spring and Mali's being the Tuareg/AQIM uprising) are over, I do believe they are contained...for the most part. Enough blabbering! Here's the list for 2014:
10. South Sudan
Conflict between the government and rebels forced various African countries to send military forces into South Sudan. A peace deal was signed in May, but I don't think peace will last.
9. North Korea
I'm dropping Best Korea from 5th to 9th but I just can't take them off the list entirely. There is just too much tension between North and South and I'm not convinced of Kim Jong-un's sanity. If I were China, I would attempt regime change.
8. Xinjiang, China
Speaking of China...something is afoot in the western region of Xinjiang. Is there a red line for the Muslim Uighur population and how long before they attempt a full on revolt?
7. Somalia
African nations contributing peacekeeping/counter insurgency forces to Somalia continue to find themselves stretched thin by other conflicts. Al Shabaab has taken advantage and brought the fight to Kenya on a few occasions.
6. Nigeria
Hashtag activism isn't going to stop Boko Haram. Especially when I suspect they may be winning.
5. Egypt
There's a war in the Sinai but nobody seems to care. Things aren't exactly peachy in the west either.
4. Libya
I haven't been paying much attention here. From what I can gather there are lots of militia groups claiming territory and fighting over neighborhoods in Tripoli and Benghazi. The government is pretty much ineffective. What happens when you only help with one half of regime change? The situation in Libya happens.
3. Ukraine
This potential WWIII flash point certainly came out of nowhere.
2. Afghanistan/Pakistan
The Taliban made a "fighting season" push in Helmand but were not all that successful thanks to the Afghan security forces. The country also managed to pull off presidential elections. A glimmer of hope?
1. Iraq/Syria
A clusterfuck. That is all.
Edit: I did not include Israel-Palestine/Gaza on this list because conflict between those two is essentially "same shit, different day".
Labels:
Afghanistan,
Boko Haram,
Egypt,
Iraq,
Libya,
North Korea,
Shabaab,
Somalia,
South Sudan,
Syria,
Uighur,
Ukraine,
Xinjiang
Monday, June 2, 2014
Please, No More Wandering Off the Base
Popping in from my self imposed break due to an event that occurred over the weekend. If you weren't paying attention to the news, Bowe Bergdahl was released by the Haqqani Network in exchange for five Taliban prisoners. Bergdahl was a soldier who was captured by insurgents back in 2009 and has been held by Haqqani/Taliban since then. He is the last remaining missing/captured soldier from the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and I'm quite glad that he has been released.
However, having said that, there are numerous questions that I...as well as many others...have about the situation leading up to Bergdahl's capture and what transpired while he was detained.
First of all, it's likely he went AWOL.
Now I wasn't there, during this time I was dealing with Iraq and quite happily ignoring Afghanistan. I was not paying attention to the situation and currently I am no where near having all of the facts. But just for fun...and because this is my blog...here are the various rumors I have heard come down the grapevine from multiple individuals who were either in Afghanistan at the time, or were there later and assisted in trying to hunt down Bergdahl's location:
- He walked off his patrol base because he was drunk. (Official Army line at the time was that he was captured when he fell behind during a combat patrol.)
- He walked off his patrol base because he was high on drugs.
- He walked off his patrol base because he was drunk AND high.
- He walked off his patrol base to get alcohol or drugs.
- Bergdahl left the base and actively sought out the Taliban in order to defect.
- Bergdahl was actively helping the Taliban in conducting attacks against American forces to include getting on the radio and assisting the Taliban with directing mortar fire.
There's also some concern that the US gave up some high level Taliban guys for just one soldier. I don't exactly have a lot of issues with this because 1) the US should do everything it can to bring back everyone...including assholes; and 2) those Taliban detainees have been out of the fight since the beginning of the war. They lack what we in Iraq would call "wasta" and honestly I don't think they'll have much impact on US operations in Afghanistan or the tactical fight there.
I hope one day the true story of events comes out, but that may take awhile.
However, having said that, there are numerous questions that I...as well as many others...have about the situation leading up to Bergdahl's capture and what transpired while he was detained.
First of all, it's likely he went AWOL.
Now I wasn't there, during this time I was dealing with Iraq and quite happily ignoring Afghanistan. I was not paying attention to the situation and currently I am no where near having all of the facts. But just for fun...and because this is my blog...here are the various rumors I have heard come down the grapevine from multiple individuals who were either in Afghanistan at the time, or were there later and assisted in trying to hunt down Bergdahl's location:
- He walked off his patrol base because he was drunk. (Official Army line at the time was that he was captured when he fell behind during a combat patrol.)
- He walked off his patrol base because he was high on drugs.
- He walked off his patrol base because he was drunk AND high.
- He walked off his patrol base to get alcohol or drugs.
- Bergdahl left the base and actively sought out the Taliban in order to defect.
- Bergdahl was actively helping the Taliban in conducting attacks against American forces to include getting on the radio and assisting the Taliban with directing mortar fire.
There's also some concern that the US gave up some high level Taliban guys for just one soldier. I don't exactly have a lot of issues with this because 1) the US should do everything it can to bring back everyone...including assholes; and 2) those Taliban detainees have been out of the fight since the beginning of the war. They lack what we in Iraq would call "wasta" and honestly I don't think they'll have much impact on US operations in Afghanistan or the tactical fight there.
I hope one day the true story of events comes out, but that may take awhile.
Labels:
Afghanistan,
Bowe Bergdahl,
Haqqani,
Taliban
Tuesday, April 8, 2014
Afghan Elections: 2014 Edition
Credit: Reuters/Mohammad Ismail
Last Saturday, Afghanistan held presidential elections to determine who will next lead the country...or at least determine who would be on the ballot for the inevitable run-off elections. I had my concerns about violence and voter turnout. In the last elections voter turnout was reportedly low. There was also plenty of reporting leading up to April 5th that indicated that the Taliban was doing everything it could to prevent people from voting and to de-legitimize the elections.
Happily, election day saw a relatively low level of violence and about a 58% voter turnout. Not great, but also not bad for a country where ballots have to be brought in by donkey in many areas.
The day wasn't perfect, however, as more remote districts and districts heavily influenced by the Taliban saw an extremely low turnout. But to be perfectly honest, this was expected and I'll take what I can get in Afghanistan. The government had even closed about 1,000 polling centers, or approximately 1/8 of the places people could vote due to insecurity in those areas.
But as I said, this isn't a developed nation free of violence and 58% turnout is pretty damn good. This good news was improved when I learned two key Taliban leaders in the area that my section is focused on blew themselves up attempting to attack a polling center.
So now that April 5th is done and in the history books, I wait patiently for a few weeks for the official count to be announced...which as I stated above, will likely just lead to a run-off between two or three of the candidates; and who knows how that will go.
Monday, February 24, 2014
We Should Send Them Some Hellfires In Exchange
I'm going to break for a moment from my delving into one of the darker periods of my Army career to post a bit about some more current news, SGT Bowe Bergdahl.
Bergdahl, for those who don't know, was captured by insurgents in Afghanistan when he decided to wander off his unit's observation post in 2009. Bergdahl's sobriety and motivations at the time are up for debate and not clearly known. There are rumors that he was either drunk or high at the time and other rumors say he was attempting to defect. I'm not convinced of the latter since all the videos that have been released appear to show him awfully scared.
In the past week it's been reported that US officials are attempting to secure Bergdahl's release by swapping 5 prisoners held at Guantanamo. This has been attempted before and there is probably multiple reasons for why the US is currently trying to swap Taliban prisoners for our one soldiers. First of all, we're likely closing up shop in Afghanistan come the end of the year and as time goes by it will become increasingly difficult to get Bergdahl back, obviously. Second, the Obama administration has always said it wants to close the detention facility at Guantanamo, but has faced many obstacles to doing that, one of them being the prisoners themselves who we can't seem to move or get rid of. Releasing a few of these guys (in Qatar, not Afghanistan/Pakistan, not sure how the Qataris feel about that) would go a long way to reducing the current population of the facility. Thirdly, he's a damn POW and we need to get his ass back.
However, just days after the US announced the renewal of talks, the Taliban suspended them, stating that the current political situation in Afghanistan is complex...well no shit. Election posturing? Likely. Buying time until it gets closer to the US pulling out and we get desperate? Definitely.
Just one minor detail...
The Taliban doesn't have Bergdahl. The Haqqani Network does. The Haqqani are a family run insurgent network that go back to the mujahedeen days of fighting the Soviet invasion. They are allied with the Taliban. Many even say they are a part of the Taliban. A few senior Haqqani members have even said they are part of the Taliban. But even if the Haqqani are a part of the Taliban, they are still their own masters and may not take kindly to the Taliban telling them what they can and can't do with Bergdahl. It wouldn't shock me to learn that even if we released these 5 prisoners the Haqqani decide that's just not good enough and keep Bergdahl for themselves.
Such a complicated mess.
Bergdahl, for those who don't know, was captured by insurgents in Afghanistan when he decided to wander off his unit's observation post in 2009. Bergdahl's sobriety and motivations at the time are up for debate and not clearly known. There are rumors that he was either drunk or high at the time and other rumors say he was attempting to defect. I'm not convinced of the latter since all the videos that have been released appear to show him awfully scared.
In the past week it's been reported that US officials are attempting to secure Bergdahl's release by swapping 5 prisoners held at Guantanamo. This has been attempted before and there is probably multiple reasons for why the US is currently trying to swap Taliban prisoners for our one soldiers. First of all, we're likely closing up shop in Afghanistan come the end of the year and as time goes by it will become increasingly difficult to get Bergdahl back, obviously. Second, the Obama administration has always said it wants to close the detention facility at Guantanamo, but has faced many obstacles to doing that, one of them being the prisoners themselves who we can't seem to move or get rid of. Releasing a few of these guys (in Qatar, not Afghanistan/Pakistan, not sure how the Qataris feel about that) would go a long way to reducing the current population of the facility. Thirdly, he's a damn POW and we need to get his ass back.
However, just days after the US announced the renewal of talks, the Taliban suspended them, stating that the current political situation in Afghanistan is complex...well no shit. Election posturing? Likely. Buying time until it gets closer to the US pulling out and we get desperate? Definitely.
Just one minor detail...
The Taliban doesn't have Bergdahl. The Haqqani Network does. The Haqqani are a family run insurgent network that go back to the mujahedeen days of fighting the Soviet invasion. They are allied with the Taliban. Many even say they are a part of the Taliban. A few senior Haqqani members have even said they are part of the Taliban. But even if the Haqqani are a part of the Taliban, they are still their own masters and may not take kindly to the Taliban telling them what they can and can't do with Bergdahl. It wouldn't shock me to learn that even if we released these 5 prisoners the Haqqani decide that's just not good enough and keep Bergdahl for themselves.
Such a complicated mess.
Labels:
Afghanistan,
Bowe Bergdahl,
Haqqani,
Taliban
Saturday, January 25, 2014
Reflections On Targeting
I've been dwelling a bit recently on my third deployment and 1-14 Cav's operations in Diyala Province, Iraq. As I was leaving the country I wrote a post about my thoughts at the time. I stated I felt like the mission was incomplete and that there was so much more to do and individuals we should have removed from the battlespace. Part of the reason for those feelings came from the high standards I set for myself, especially since 1-14 had some pretty good initial success at targeting our high value individuals. However, a lot of my frustrations came from the pressures I felt on a daily basis coming from our operations officer and the troop commanders.
There's a saying in the military, "intelligence drives operations". The general meaning of that is information and intelligence gathered should be telling a unit where to send patrols, who to talk to, what areas to conduct clearances, who to detain, etc. Essentially, intel needs to be ahead of ops, not the other way around.
Sounds good on paper, but is often difficult to practice in reality. In my case, intel was hard to come by due to multiple hurdles, one of which was a lack of sources/informants to provide information. This lead to our technical means of collecting information to be weak. Often we were forced to defer to the Iraqis on where operations should occur...which honestly isn't all that bad and in a counter insurgency deferring to the native security forces is usually the best practice.
Unfortunately, the operations officer was not pleased with this and I heard several times from him (both ops officers in fact since the original went up to brigade and was replaced) that my section was failing. The troop commanders also seemed frustrated that I wasn't coming to them daily with compounds and villages that needed to be searched or the exact location of a wanted individual. Multiple times I was told to start targeting like the special ops guys target or to demand from SOF the intel they were getting.
Flash forward to my time in Afghanistan, both at the detention facility and at IJC. In both positions I had daily knowledge of who was being detained or killed and what type of organizations were doing the targeting. Since Afghanistan in 2012-13 was similar to Iraq in 2009-10 (in terms of how spread out units were and their mission) this was a good way to compare 1-14 Cav's time in Iraq to other conventional units and their targeting abilities.
I found that conventional units are doing very little capturing of individuals, it's almost all special forces. SOF have more assets and analysts that have specialized training/experience in conducting the type of targeting that is often required in fighting an insurgency. Conventional units are busy doing the necessary, but somewhat mundane, tasks such as partnership, route clearance, or in the specific case of 1-14's time in Iraq, maintaining checkpoints. They don't have the bodies on the ground and rarely get the intel that leads to something actionable, and when they do they often pass it off to the SOF guys who can further develop and action a target more quickly and efficiently.
This revelation has made me feel better about 1-14's time in Diyala Province. We did what we could and did pretty damn well, especially due to the fact that for a good chunk of our time we were tied to checkpoints and had a very limited number of platoons that could operate to gather information that could then be integrated into our targeting efforts. I have enough demons on my back from that deployment that I don't need to add to them.
There's a saying in the military, "intelligence drives operations". The general meaning of that is information and intelligence gathered should be telling a unit where to send patrols, who to talk to, what areas to conduct clearances, who to detain, etc. Essentially, intel needs to be ahead of ops, not the other way around.
Sounds good on paper, but is often difficult to practice in reality. In my case, intel was hard to come by due to multiple hurdles, one of which was a lack of sources/informants to provide information. This lead to our technical means of collecting information to be weak. Often we were forced to defer to the Iraqis on where operations should occur...which honestly isn't all that bad and in a counter insurgency deferring to the native security forces is usually the best practice.
Unfortunately, the operations officer was not pleased with this and I heard several times from him (both ops officers in fact since the original went up to brigade and was replaced) that my section was failing. The troop commanders also seemed frustrated that I wasn't coming to them daily with compounds and villages that needed to be searched or the exact location of a wanted individual. Multiple times I was told to start targeting like the special ops guys target or to demand from SOF the intel they were getting.
Flash forward to my time in Afghanistan, both at the detention facility and at IJC. In both positions I had daily knowledge of who was being detained or killed and what type of organizations were doing the targeting. Since Afghanistan in 2012-13 was similar to Iraq in 2009-10 (in terms of how spread out units were and their mission) this was a good way to compare 1-14 Cav's time in Iraq to other conventional units and their targeting abilities.
I found that conventional units are doing very little capturing of individuals, it's almost all special forces. SOF have more assets and analysts that have specialized training/experience in conducting the type of targeting that is often required in fighting an insurgency. Conventional units are busy doing the necessary, but somewhat mundane, tasks such as partnership, route clearance, or in the specific case of 1-14's time in Iraq, maintaining checkpoints. They don't have the bodies on the ground and rarely get the intel that leads to something actionable, and when they do they often pass it off to the SOF guys who can further develop and action a target more quickly and efficiently.
This revelation has made me feel better about 1-14's time in Diyala Province. We did what we could and did pretty damn well, especially due to the fact that for a good chunk of our time we were tied to checkpoints and had a very limited number of platoons that could operate to gather information that could then be integrated into our targeting efforts. I have enough demons on my back from that deployment that I don't need to add to them.
Labels:
1-14 Cav,
Afghanistan,
IJC,
Iraq,
Special Forces
Thursday, October 17, 2013
What Is the Security Situation In Afghanistan? Here's Why I Wouldn't Know...
With only a couple of weeks left here in Afghanistan I looked back at my blog posts and realized that I haven't really discussed what is going on here in this wonderful corner of the world. I've posted a bit about some minor happenings around the base (indirect fire, random attacks, etc) but have avoided discussing what is going on overall in Afghanistan.
I have multiple reasons/excuses for this. The first is that despite being at IJC/Corps headquarters, I really don't know what is going on most of the time. I am aware of major events but I have avoided trying to have knowledge of the day to day occurences in the province or even district level. Why? Well, primarily it's not my job to know. The beauty of being a contractor is that I get to stay in my lane; gone are the days where I was expected to not only have complete understanding of my battalion's area of operations, but also have an understanding of the entirety of the brigade battlespace as well as know what was going on two or three provinces over.
Staying in my lane is essentially the second reason. It's not my lane to be a subject matter expert on all of Afghanistan. It's my job to be an intelligence subject matter expert and review target packets, not terribly exciting to blog or read about so I don't really discuss it.
Thirdly, as I mentioned prior to coming out here, if I cross a line and inadvertantly discuss something that someone feels is classified or violates operational security I could be fired and have my clearance revoked. As long time readers will be aware, during my previous deployment somebody up at brigade stumbled upon this absurd little blog and gave me a warning about releasing too much information. I would probably get no such courtesy as a contractor.
I'm not conceited enough to think that my blog is all that important in the scheme of things or that all that many people read it. As far as I'm aware my readers primarily consist of some friends and family sprinkled with a handful of folks who somehow found this mess of thoughts and decided to keep reading. But I also didn't think Brigade (Hi Brigade!) would ever find this either so it would not shock me to learn that someone at my company or even here at IJC is keeping an eye on Warhorse Intel just to make sure I don't slip up.
Upon my return I will likely write a couple of posts about the daily happenings at IJC as well as my thoughts on how we operate here in Afghanistan, what I think the future holds for this country, and the future of counterinsurgency...so please bookmark and keep reading. I'll do my best to keep you entertained.
I have multiple reasons/excuses for this. The first is that despite being at IJC/Corps headquarters, I really don't know what is going on most of the time. I am aware of major events but I have avoided trying to have knowledge of the day to day occurences in the province or even district level. Why? Well, primarily it's not my job to know. The beauty of being a contractor is that I get to stay in my lane; gone are the days where I was expected to not only have complete understanding of my battalion's area of operations, but also have an understanding of the entirety of the brigade battlespace as well as know what was going on two or three provinces over.
Staying in my lane is essentially the second reason. It's not my lane to be a subject matter expert on all of Afghanistan. It's my job to be an intelligence subject matter expert and review target packets, not terribly exciting to blog or read about so I don't really discuss it.
Thirdly, as I mentioned prior to coming out here, if I cross a line and inadvertantly discuss something that someone feels is classified or violates operational security I could be fired and have my clearance revoked. As long time readers will be aware, during my previous deployment somebody up at brigade stumbled upon this absurd little blog and gave me a warning about releasing too much information. I would probably get no such courtesy as a contractor.
I'm not conceited enough to think that my blog is all that important in the scheme of things or that all that many people read it. As far as I'm aware my readers primarily consist of some friends and family sprinkled with a handful of folks who somehow found this mess of thoughts and decided to keep reading. But I also didn't think Brigade (Hi Brigade!) would ever find this either so it would not shock me to learn that someone at my company or even here at IJC is keeping an eye on Warhorse Intel just to make sure I don't slip up.
Upon my return I will likely write a couple of posts about the daily happenings at IJC as well as my thoughts on how we operate here in Afghanistan, what I think the future holds for this country, and the future of counterinsurgency...so please bookmark and keep reading. I'll do my best to keep you entertained.
Sunday, July 28, 2013
Top 10 "Global Concerns" 2013 Edition
It's that time of the year again (why I originally started this in late July I will never remember) for Warhorse Intel's Top 10 "Global Concerns". I compile this list based on the reading I do throughout the year and is entirely my own biased assessment. 2012's list is here. Here's what it looked like:
10. Greece
9. Iran
8. Mexico
7. Kurd/Arab line Iraq
6. Somalia
5. North Korea
4. Yemen
3. Mali
2. Syria
1. Afghanistan/Pakistan
Once again the list between this year and last year are very similar. I'm not going to go in depth as much with each of these or provide links to back up my statements because 1) I don't have a whole lot of time and 2) I'm feeling especially lazy and 3) I'm in Afghanistan, what do you want from me? You're lucky you get a list at all. Anyway, as for the changes...Greece fell off because I think their economic issues are not going to lead to much violence beyond rioting. Mexico also came off as it appears from my little corner of the world that the narco gangs may be losing influence and power, but we'll see. Yemen was also dropped because Al Qaida In the Arabic Peninsula (AQAP) does not appear to be gaining strength and that conflict may be more tribal than anything else and is unlikely to spread. Now, on to the 2013 list!
10. Nigeria
Violence caused by Boko Haram led to a goverment crackdown in the north. That crackdown has led to more violence. My question is, when will Al Qaida officially jump into the fray and openly support Boko Haram?
9. Iran
Maintaining the spot at #9 only because at any time they could announce that they have a nuclear weapon which would lead to an Israeli airstrike which would then lead to...well...chaos. Will a new president lead to any significant change? This analyst says no.
8. Tunisia
Arab Spring woke up some demons in Tunisia. Extremists are becoming increasingly vocal and political assassinations are on the rise. Al Qaida In the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) is also likely looking for a spot to cause some havoc after being routed in Mali.
7. Somalia
Will Shabaab ever quit? I keep saying they are 6 months from being dead but they keep refusing to die.
6. Mali
The Tuareg tribe took over the north with the help of AQIM and friends. The Tauregs immediately regretted this decision and worked with the French to boot AQIM. Tentative peace has followed. I don't think it's going to last.
5. North Korea
For awhile there I thought war really was going to break out but then cooler heads prevailed. I keep them on this list because one day Best Korea may just actually do it and invade again.
4. Iraq
It's no longer just the Kurd/Arab line that's a problem. Violence has reached 2008 levels throughout the country. Everything Prime Minister Maliki does just creates more tension. At what point do the Sunnis revolt? At what point do the Kurds declare independence? At what point does the US return?
3. Egypt
Holy hell this place escalated quickly. Fallen regimes, Muslim Brotherhood in charge, coups, violence, and a growing extremist threat in the Sinai.
2. Syria
A clusterfuck.
1. Afghanistan/Pakistan
I've spent nearly 9 months here in Afghanistan and now have the hands on experience to repeat what I have said in my previous Top 10s...fuck this place.
10. Greece
9. Iran
8. Mexico
7. Kurd/Arab line Iraq
6. Somalia
5. North Korea
4. Yemen
3. Mali
2. Syria
1. Afghanistan/Pakistan
Once again the list between this year and last year are very similar. I'm not going to go in depth as much with each of these or provide links to back up my statements because 1) I don't have a whole lot of time and 2) I'm feeling especially lazy and 3) I'm in Afghanistan, what do you want from me? You're lucky you get a list at all. Anyway, as for the changes...Greece fell off because I think their economic issues are not going to lead to much violence beyond rioting. Mexico also came off as it appears from my little corner of the world that the narco gangs may be losing influence and power, but we'll see. Yemen was also dropped because Al Qaida In the Arabic Peninsula (AQAP) does not appear to be gaining strength and that conflict may be more tribal than anything else and is unlikely to spread. Now, on to the 2013 list!
10. Nigeria
Violence caused by Boko Haram led to a goverment crackdown in the north. That crackdown has led to more violence. My question is, when will Al Qaida officially jump into the fray and openly support Boko Haram?
9. Iran
Maintaining the spot at #9 only because at any time they could announce that they have a nuclear weapon which would lead to an Israeli airstrike which would then lead to...well...chaos. Will a new president lead to any significant change? This analyst says no.
8. Tunisia
Arab Spring woke up some demons in Tunisia. Extremists are becoming increasingly vocal and political assassinations are on the rise. Al Qaida In the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) is also likely looking for a spot to cause some havoc after being routed in Mali.
7. Somalia
Will Shabaab ever quit? I keep saying they are 6 months from being dead but they keep refusing to die.
6. Mali
The Tuareg tribe took over the north with the help of AQIM and friends. The Tauregs immediately regretted this decision and worked with the French to boot AQIM. Tentative peace has followed. I don't think it's going to last.
5. North Korea
For awhile there I thought war really was going to break out but then cooler heads prevailed. I keep them on this list because one day Best Korea may just actually do it and invade again.
4. Iraq
It's no longer just the Kurd/Arab line that's a problem. Violence has reached 2008 levels throughout the country. Everything Prime Minister Maliki does just creates more tension. At what point do the Sunnis revolt? At what point do the Kurds declare independence? At what point does the US return?
3. Egypt
Holy hell this place escalated quickly. Fallen regimes, Muslim Brotherhood in charge, coups, violence, and a growing extremist threat in the Sinai.
2. Syria
A clusterfuck.
1. Afghanistan/Pakistan
I've spent nearly 9 months here in Afghanistan and now have the hands on experience to repeat what I have said in my previous Top 10s...fuck this place.
Thursday, May 16, 2013
Graveyard of Emprires? Not So Much
Afghanistan has the nickname "Graveyard of Empires" because of some silly notion that no conquering state can seem to control the place. However, if you actually look closely at history other than the British getting trounced a couple of times and the Soviet Union collapsing a few short years after leaving the country, Afghanistan has actually been the "highway of conquest" for many civilizations who were quite capable of conquering and controlling the region now known as Afghanistan, at least until 1842 or so.
Darius I and his Persians controlled the region until the upstart Alexander showed up and took it. Alexander's successors then held Afghanistan for 200 years. There was some back and forth control for awhile between various Indo-Greek nations until the Sassanids/Persians claimed the territory. Those pesky Mongols eventually showed up and had very little to no trouble until Tamerlane arrived. The Timur Empire would eventually move its capital from Samarkand to Herat. Doesn't exactly appear that Afghanistan is the graveyard for any empire.
But what about those Brits? They never actually wanted to absorb Afghanistan into the Empire. Afghanistan was a buffer state between British India and Imperial Russia. London only sent troops into Afghanistan in order to ensure the king in Kabul remained "pro-England" and did not become "pro-Russia". Yeah, I'm simplifying things a bit.
The Soviet Union? They were probably winning against the Mujahideen in Afghanistan up until 1984 or so when the US decided to arm the insurgents with Stinger missiles. Did Russia try and fail in Afghanistan? Yes, of course. But there were numerous factors at play.
Which brings me to now. I just completed reading Ahmed Rashid's Taliban (add that to the long list of books I should have read a long time ago) which describes the Taliban's rise and impact in Afghanistan. It's pretty obvious that the West, and specifically the US, bungled Afghanistan after the Soviets left, mostly because the West chose to ignore Afghanistan and let Pakistan handle things. It continued to be ignored even after 9/11 and the US invasion, mostly because the US focused its attention on Iraq. The challenges ISAF is facing here in Afghanistan can be traced back to the complete lack of security forces and troops from 2002 until about 2008/2009 which allowed for the Taliban to regroup and re-arm. Keeping our head in the sand about Pakistan didn't help either. Don't even get me started on Pakistan.
All of this got me thinking last night, which in itself is always dangerous and makes my head hurt. One question popped into my brain that I will attempt to tackle in my next post and kind of goes against my entire thought process above...
Is Afghanistan the graveyard of NATO?
Darius I and his Persians controlled the region until the upstart Alexander showed up and took it. Alexander's successors then held Afghanistan for 200 years. There was some back and forth control for awhile between various Indo-Greek nations until the Sassanids/Persians claimed the territory. Those pesky Mongols eventually showed up and had very little to no trouble until Tamerlane arrived. The Timur Empire would eventually move its capital from Samarkand to Herat. Doesn't exactly appear that Afghanistan is the graveyard for any empire.
But what about those Brits? They never actually wanted to absorb Afghanistan into the Empire. Afghanistan was a buffer state between British India and Imperial Russia. London only sent troops into Afghanistan in order to ensure the king in Kabul remained "pro-England" and did not become "pro-Russia". Yeah, I'm simplifying things a bit.
The Soviet Union? They were probably winning against the Mujahideen in Afghanistan up until 1984 or so when the US decided to arm the insurgents with Stinger missiles. Did Russia try and fail in Afghanistan? Yes, of course. But there were numerous factors at play.
Which brings me to now. I just completed reading Ahmed Rashid's Taliban (add that to the long list of books I should have read a long time ago) which describes the Taliban's rise and impact in Afghanistan. It's pretty obvious that the West, and specifically the US, bungled Afghanistan after the Soviets left, mostly because the West chose to ignore Afghanistan and let Pakistan handle things. It continued to be ignored even after 9/11 and the US invasion, mostly because the US focused its attention on Iraq. The challenges ISAF is facing here in Afghanistan can be traced back to the complete lack of security forces and troops from 2002 until about 2008/2009 which allowed for the Taliban to regroup and re-arm. Keeping our head in the sand about Pakistan didn't help either. Don't even get me started on Pakistan.
All of this got me thinking last night, which in itself is always dangerous and makes my head hurt. One question popped into my brain that I will attempt to tackle in my next post and kind of goes against my entire thought process above...
Is Afghanistan the graveyard of NATO?
Labels:
Afghanistan,
Graveyard of Empires,
Pakistan,
Taliban
Saturday, April 27, 2013
Fighting Season, Woot!
The Taliban has finally bothered to announce the beginning of 2013's Fighting Season/Spring Offensive. About time guys, I was getting worried; and as I mentioned, many a staff officer at ISAF Joint Command were getting all stressed about it.
Fighting Season officially begins tomorrow (Sunday) on April 28th, which corresponds to Afghanistan's "Mujahideen Victory Day" which is also observed on Sunday.
In other amusing Afghanistan news, today at lunch one of my colleagues was discussing how he doesn't want Afghanistan to change its culture, "Afghanistan is fine for Afghans. We shouldn't be trying to change anything. That's like walking into someone's house and stating, 'you should really change the color of those walls.'"
I responded with, "so we're somebody's annoying mother in law?"
Fighting Season officially begins tomorrow (Sunday) on April 28th, which corresponds to Afghanistan's "Mujahideen Victory Day" which is also observed on Sunday.
In other amusing Afghanistan news, today at lunch one of my colleagues was discussing how he doesn't want Afghanistan to change its culture, "Afghanistan is fine for Afghans. We shouldn't be trying to change anything. That's like walking into someone's house and stating, 'you should really change the color of those walls.'"
I responded with, "so we're somebody's annoying mother in law?"
Labels:
Afghanistan,
Fighting Season,
ISAF Joint Command,
Taliban
Wednesday, February 20, 2013
Ready For A Bit Of The Old Ultra-Violence
So other than defeating lawyers with nonsense words what has been going on in Afghanistan during the Winter lull prior to the start of the fighting season?
Well, ISAF/Coalition/US forces are methodically pulling out of all those smaller bases we (and by "we" I mean all those folks who were here when I was chilling in Iraq) had slowly and painstakingly established over the years. In most cases ISAF is handing the bases and outposts over to Afghan forces who hopefully are willing and able to continue the counter-insurgency operations ISAF troops were doing before. So what occurs when ISAF begins pulling troops out of these bases?
Violence of course. Those Taliban/Haqqanni forces still operating during the winter are attacking the retrograding troops as they pull out of those bases. As there are less and less ISAF troops the Taliban increases its attacks in order to attempt to retake territory previously lost. The article linked just discusses US forces but believe me, it's happening to other coalition partners as well.
We're also removing threats as they pop up. The author of the article makes it sound like the Special Forces shot the individual in cold blood on a base but that really wasn't the situation at all. Shocking, a news article that isn't accurate. Two quotes from the article I'd like to bring up:
.
Well, ISAF/Coalition/US forces are methodically pulling out of all those smaller bases we (and by "we" I mean all those folks who were here when I was chilling in Iraq) had slowly and painstakingly established over the years. In most cases ISAF is handing the bases and outposts over to Afghan forces who hopefully are willing and able to continue the counter-insurgency operations ISAF troops were doing before. So what occurs when ISAF begins pulling troops out of these bases?
Violence of course. Those Taliban/Haqqanni forces still operating during the winter are attacking the retrograding troops as they pull out of those bases. As there are less and less ISAF troops the Taliban increases its attacks in order to attempt to retake territory previously lost. The article linked just discusses US forces but believe me, it's happening to other coalition partners as well.
We're also removing threats as they pop up. The author of the article makes it sound like the Special Forces shot the individual in cold blood on a base but that really wasn't the situation at all. Shocking, a news article that isn't accurate. Two quotes from the article I'd like to bring up:
“Even if he was supporting the Taliban, did the Americans have the right to kill him?” said Wali Khan, a Parliament member from Helmand...Yes, yes we did. Why? Because of this other quote:
Mr. Khan was on the American military’s list of people to be killed or captured, known as the Joint Prioritized Effects List, according to officialsDon't get on my list people. It probably won't end well.
.
Labels:
Afghanistan,
Haqqani,
ISAF,
JPEL,
nonsense words,
retrograde,
Taliban,
US forces
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