ISIS and Boko Haram Now BFFs

Well I certainly didn't see Nigeria's Boko Haram declaring allegiance with The Islamic State©, although I probably should have seen it as a possibility. Overall this doesn't exactly change anything but the announcement, which apparently is legit, does show a shifting in power from the global jihadist dominance of Al Qaeda to the upstart ISIS/ISIL/IS. Due to my lack of knowledge in the nuances of African and Nigerian Islamic insurgency I would have assumed Boko Haram would have aligned itself with AQIM over ISIS, but apparently an offshoot of Boko Haram, Ansaru, has already done that. Boko Haram's brutal tactics are more similar to ISIS' than AQ's anyway.

ISIS is really building up that street cred.

To add to the fun, ISIS has apparently gotten a foothold in Afghanistan. An Afghan army general is claiming there are ISIS elements recruiting in some of the southern provinces, which is very interesting since the southern Afghan provinces are the Taliban's home turf. Could this be a sign that the Afghan population is turning against the Taliban and that the Taliban don't have the control that they claim? Possibly, but it concerns me that instead of fighting the Taliban with the government, or at least not supporting the Taliban, there are individuals who choose to join ISIS instead. At least the Taliban was the legit (sort of and not really in any internationally acknowledged way) government of Afghanistan at one point.

Where will ISIS pop up next?

ISIS Threats, Italy Mocks

Back in November I wrote a post mentioning ISIS had (sort of) expanded into Libya. Since then, the organization, or at least those individuals claiming allegiance to ISIS, has captured some towns and a little bit of territory in the country. That's not particularly noteworthy; Libya is a bloody mess right now and I'm pretty sure I could get on a flight to north Africa, recruit twenty people, and capture my own little corner of Libya.

I'd call it Bani Warhorse or بني حصان الحرب. Somebody design me a flag.

Anyway...those little ISIS-alligned rapscallions like to use Twitter, and after the group captured the town of Sirte some ISIS-linked accounts threatened to conquer Rome. Good initiative there buddy, but maybe you should keep your focus on Tripoli or Benghazi before taking on a European capital. As for a response from Italy? Italians showed a bit of their humor and warned ISIS of Rome's horrible traffic and public transportation issues.

Good for them. Now I feel like a cannoli.

Another Coup In Yemen

When I last posted about Yemen, that country appeared to be potentially collapsing towards civil war. Or was already in a civil war. Depends how pessimistic you want to be. The Shia Houthi rebels from the north had taken the capital of Sana'a, booted out the prime minister, made a peace agreement with the president, and then started fighting with AQAP who were already assisting an insurgency in the south.

Well, things haven't exactly gone well for Yemen since then (no surprise). Two days ago, the Houthis stormed the presidential palace and shelled the residence of the president (who wasn't staying in the palace) in what was essentially a coup. A cease-fire was declared, but it appears the president, who I assumed was merely a puppet of the Houthis, has resigned along with his cabinet.

So the Houthis now have complete control over the capital and likely the government of Yemen. This certainly does not please the Sunnis in the south of Yemen, who are also still dealing with AQAP and are in no position to help establish a new government or demand representation in a new government. I see a split in the near future for Yemen.

Oh, ISIS is popping up there too. Hooray!

Taliban, Shabaab, and ISIS...Oh My

I've got some interesting stories/articles to share for you to peruse at your leisure this weekend and/or while you are trying to avoid interacting with family during Thanksgiving. Some of this news is good, some is neutral, and some is bad. Spoiler alert: it's all going to end up bad in the long term. There I go being pessimistic again.

News out of Afghanistan is that the leader of the Taliban, Mullah Omar, is dead. The information is coming from the Afghan National Directorate of Security (NDS) so I'm going to take it with a grain of salt. Having said that, I tend to believe NDS reporting over some of the crap the US puts out concerning the Taliban. The NDS also claim that due to Mullah Omar's death, Taliban leadership has split into three groups and "differences" have arisen.

Here's my perspective: Mullah Omar hasn't been credibly seen since fleeing Kandahar on a motorbike back when the US invaded Afghanistan. There have been many reports saying he's dead and many reports saying he's alive. On occasion Mullah Omar has issued written statements but those statements could just be some senior Taliban leader claiming to be Mullah Omar. As for Taliban infighting, that's probably pretty likely. During my brief time in Kabul there was information out there about senior Taliban members splintering off or creating discord due to difference of opinions. It's a slight glimmer of hope I have for Afghanistan that the Taliban can't/won't be organized enough to completely over-run the country again.

For some actual optimism, the Somali president claimed that by the end of the year Al Shabaab fighters would be pushed out of all the remaining territory the group holds. For awhile on this blog I was predicting every few months that Al Shabaab only had about 6 months left until it was defeated. Well screw it, I'm saying it again: by the middle of next year Al Shabaab will hold no territory and be nothing but a small terrorist group that is merely a thorn in the side of the Somali government and the African Union.

Feel free to call me out on that in June.

ISIS just captured the Syrian town of Derna...wait did I write Syrian? I meant Libyan. THE FUCK IS ISIS DOING IN LIBYA??!! Calm down, no need to panic. Apparently some punks called the Islamic Youth Council changed their name and flag and pledged their allegiance to ISIS. It helps that members of that particular militia just returned from Syria after fighting for ISIS; so it's not so much as ISIS suddenly expanding and more like ISIS attempting to set up a colony. Eastern Libya was already pretty extremist to begin with (think Alabama/Mississippi of Libya) and the whole country is just a mess so I'm not overly concerned.

I'll become concerned when ISIS can actually make some real friends.

Introducing the YPG!

I've written here and there about the Kurdish security forces in Iraq, namely the Kurdistan Regional Government's Peshmerga militia and their "secret" police, the Asayish. Long time readers will understand why: I was deployed to northeast Diyala Province, Iraq in 2009-10 in an area disputed between Arabs and Kurds and dealt quite a bit with both the Peshmerga and the Asayish. The "Pesh" have been engaging AQI/ISI/ISIS/ISIL/IS as well as various other Iraqi insurgent groups (namely Jaysh Rijal al-Tariq Naqshabandi and Ansar al Sunna) for years now; primarily in defense of the Iraqi Kurdish people, but also to reclaim "lost" territory. They've had success in some areas, failures in others, and stalemates pretty much everywhere.

But what about the Syrian Kurds? Who is defending them?

A Kurdish militia known as the Yekineyen Parastina Gel (acronym time again: YPG); or the Kurdish People's Protection Units for those who prefer English. The group is tied with Syria's Kurdish Democratic Union Party and Turkey's Kurdistan Worker's Party (PKK). YPG denies links to the PKK which is a designated terrorist organization by Turkey and is currently waging an insurgency against that country.

I'm going to need a flow chart soon.

The YPG militia, along with their cousins the Peshmerga, utilize female soldiers which is extremely useful for propaganda purposes when you're fighting an extremist group whose fighters reportedly fear being killed by a woman (NY Post article, take it with a grain of salt). However, ISIS is known for it's brutality against women which has led to at least one fighter killing herself to avoid being captured.

Or this female fighter utilizing a terrorist tactic against terrorists. That's one hell of a symbol.

Turkey On Board

As you are likely well aware, this whole Iraq/Syria/ISIS/ISIL thing is a tad complicated. ISIS is gaining ground in Syria near the Turkish border and in the Anbar Province of Iraq. However, they are losing ground to Iraqi and Kurdish forces in the Iraqi provinces of Ninewa and Diyala. The province of Salah al-Din appears to be in a stalemate, especially in and around Tikrit. US airstrikes are helping Iraqi and Kurdish forces, but only in those areas where those forces are going on the offensive.

Some more good (?) news may be on the way. Turkey's Parliament voted to allow the Turkish military to conduct operations in Iraq and Syria. I'm glad they are finally on board, but what was the catalyst for pushing Turkey into this fight?

It may be a little known Turkish enclave (technically an exclave, but who the hell cares) in Syria.

The enclave is the tomb of Suleyman Shah, who was the grandfather of Osman I, founder of the Ottoman Empire. In 1921 a treaty was signed between France and Turkey, the tomb and some surrounding land was allowed to remain Turkish territory and Turkey is allowed to raise the Turkish flag and have troops guarding the shrine. Turkish commanders have stated they will defend the enclave and come to the aid of the guards there should ISIS attack.

I read about this enclave a few months ago when Turkey was concerned about an ISIS threat to the shrine, but the story never gained much traction. However, wherever ISIS goes they tend to destroy shrines, tombs, and anything else of cultural value; and now ISIS is just a few miles to the north, in Kobani. Will we see a Turkish invasion of Syria in the coming weeks/months? My gut instinct says not...maybe some airstrikes, but no ground troops. Unless ISIS takes the shrine. Then all bets are off.

Edit: I originally stated that Suleyman Shah was the father of Osman I. He is actually the grandfather.