Well I certainly didn't see Nigeria's Boko Haram declaring allegiance with The Islamic State©, although I probably should have seen it as a possibility. Overall this doesn't exactly change anything but the announcement, which apparently is legit, does show a shifting in power from the global jihadist dominance of Al Qaeda to the upstart ISIS/ISIL/IS. Due to my lack of knowledge in the nuances of African and Nigerian Islamic insurgency I would have assumed Boko Haram would have aligned itself with AQIM over ISIS, but apparently an offshoot of Boko Haram, Ansaru, has already done that. Boko Haram's brutal tactics are more similar to ISIS' than AQ's anyway.
ISIS is really building up that street cred.
To add to the fun, ISIS has apparently gotten a foothold in Afghanistan. An Afghan army general is claiming there are ISIS elements recruiting in some of the southern provinces, which is very interesting since the southern Afghan provinces are the Taliban's home turf. Could this be a sign that the Afghan population is turning against the Taliban and that the Taliban don't have the control that they claim? Possibly, but it concerns me that instead of fighting the Taliban with the government, or at least not supporting the Taliban, there are individuals who choose to join ISIS instead. At least the Taliban was the legit (sort of and not really in any internationally acknowledged way) government of Afghanistan at one point.
Where will ISIS pop up next?
Showing posts with label Boko Haram. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Boko Haram. Show all posts
Sunday, March 8, 2015
Thursday, January 15, 2015
UPDATE: Nigeria, ISIS, and AQAP
Ugh, Nigeria continues to be a hot mess thanks to Boko Haram and that group's apparent desire to be blood thirsty assholes, although I'm quite convinced the government of Nigeria has its share of the blame for the chaos.
On Saturday a suicide bomber struck a market killing 16 and wounding more than 20. The bomber? A 10 year old girl. The explosives were likely detonated remotely. It would not surprise me at all if this girl was one of the 300 or so school girls kidnapped by Boko Haram last April.
Boko Haram is also continuing offensive operations and recently attacked the town of Baga near the border with Chad. Amnesty International claims 2000 people were killed in that attack. However, the Nigerian government states the death toll was more like 150. I don't know who to believe on this one. Amnesty International is likely getting their reports second hand, which may be exaggerated by locals, but Nigerian authorities are probably trying to downplay the death toll to prevent the government from looking incompetent and keep panic from spreading. Like I said, a hot mess.
Moving on to Islamic State news...because they are such fun group of lovable scamps. Oh look, the Da'ish-bags are using children to conduct their executions. The Islamic State really is doing every thing they can to get as many people as possible to hate them. I've been appalled by AQI/ISI/ISIS tactics since 2005 so nothing they do really comes as a shock to me anymore.
Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula has claimed responsibility for the Paris attack. I wonder what took them so long. I also wonder if France is going to get involved with the civil war in Yemen in order to defeat AQAP. The government of Yemen along with their Houthi puppet masters probably wouldn't allow that, but if France is angry enough that may not matter.
UPDATE: Amnesty International has issued (provided may be a better term?) satellite imagery of the area. Their death toll numbers are likely more correct than government of Nigeria's numbers.
So much ugly news. Here's a puppy to cheer everyone up:
On Saturday a suicide bomber struck a market killing 16 and wounding more than 20. The bomber? A 10 year old girl. The explosives were likely detonated remotely. It would not surprise me at all if this girl was one of the 300 or so school girls kidnapped by Boko Haram last April.
Boko Haram is also continuing offensive operations and recently attacked the town of Baga near the border with Chad. Amnesty International claims 2000 people were killed in that attack. However, the Nigerian government states the death toll was more like 150. I don't know who to believe on this one. Amnesty International is likely getting their reports second hand, which may be exaggerated by locals, but Nigerian authorities are probably trying to downplay the death toll to prevent the government from looking incompetent and keep panic from spreading. Like I said, a hot mess.
Moving on to Islamic State news...because they are such fun group of lovable scamps. Oh look, the Da'ish-bags are using children to conduct their executions. The Islamic State really is doing every thing they can to get as many people as possible to hate them. I've been appalled by AQI/ISI/ISIS tactics since 2005 so nothing they do really comes as a shock to me anymore.
Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula has claimed responsibility for the Paris attack. I wonder what took them so long. I also wonder if France is going to get involved with the civil war in Yemen in order to defeat AQAP. The government of Yemen along with their Houthi puppet masters probably wouldn't allow that, but if France is angry enough that may not matter.
UPDATE: Amnesty International has issued (provided may be a better term?) satellite imagery of the area. Their death toll numbers are likely more correct than government of Nigeria's numbers.
So much ugly news. Here's a puppy to cheer everyone up:
He probably poops on the carpet though...
Tuesday, November 4, 2014
A Few Links To Keep You Occupied
I've been feeling rather lazy lately so instead of a full post I'm just going to link to some interesting articles I've come across over the past several days.
The first is a fun little interview with John Nagl. For those not in the know, Dr Nagl is a former U.S. Army officer and one of the leaders in counter-insurgency movement that swept the U.S. military around 2006. The Army is currently moving away from counter-insurgency to focus more on conventional force on force tactics which I find a bit frightening. After the Vietnam War, the U.S. believed the conflict was an anomaly and refocused on tank vs tank warfare. The U.S. moving back to that "big armored formation" mentality now that Afghanistan is winding down and Iraq is several years over (or is it?). Lessons that were learned through blood, sweat, and treasure are going to have to be relearned sooner rather than later...and it will be hell to pay.
Some brighter news, Iraq is getting rid of fake bomb detectors that the Maliki government stubbornly refused to give up. Even with no moving parts; even after being told time and time again they don't work; even after the man that sold them was arrested in the UK; the Iraqi government kept ADE-651s on checkpoints in and around Baghdad. How many innocent Iraqis died because of this hubris?
Remember back in September when it was reported that the government of Nigeria was in talks with Boko Haram to release those kidnapped school girls? Do you also happen to remember that I wrote that I had assumed the girls had already been sold into slavery? I hate to say this, but it appears I may have been right. Boko Haram is denying a cease-fire with the government and is also claiming the school girls have already been "married off".
I'll be over here in the corner attempting to not be so cynical.
The first is a fun little interview with John Nagl. For those not in the know, Dr Nagl is a former U.S. Army officer and one of the leaders in counter-insurgency movement that swept the U.S. military around 2006. The Army is currently moving away from counter-insurgency to focus more on conventional force on force tactics which I find a bit frightening. After the Vietnam War, the U.S. believed the conflict was an anomaly and refocused on tank vs tank warfare. The U.S. moving back to that "big armored formation" mentality now that Afghanistan is winding down and Iraq is several years over (or is it?). Lessons that were learned through blood, sweat, and treasure are going to have to be relearned sooner rather than later...and it will be hell to pay.
Some brighter news, Iraq is getting rid of fake bomb detectors that the Maliki government stubbornly refused to give up. Even with no moving parts; even after being told time and time again they don't work; even after the man that sold them was arrested in the UK; the Iraqi government kept ADE-651s on checkpoints in and around Baghdad. How many innocent Iraqis died because of this hubris?
Remember back in September when it was reported that the government of Nigeria was in talks with Boko Haram to release those kidnapped school girls? Do you also happen to remember that I wrote that I had assumed the girls had already been sold into slavery? I hate to say this, but it appears I may have been right. Boko Haram is denying a cease-fire with the government and is also claiming the school girls have already been "married off".
I'll be over here in the corner attempting to not be so cynical.
Wednesday, September 24, 2014
Update on the Update: Boko Haram Update
Last time I mentioned Nigeria and Boko Haram back in May violence was increasing, the US was getting involved mildly, and the 300 school girls Boko Haram had kidnapped were no closer to being released. Nigeria even made my "Warhorse Top 10".
So how is Nigeria these days? Better? Worse?
I can't say better, but there are reports that Boko Haram's leader, Abubakar Shekau, was killed in a battle near, or possibly in, Cameroon. Shekau was a bit of an asshole, and seemed to be effective, so his removal may actually do some good and bring Boko Haram to the negotiating table.
Oh, look at that. The government of Nigeria and the Red Cross are in talks with Boko Haram about swapping the kidnapped girls for captured Boko Haram leaders. I'm a bit shocked, I figured those girls had been sold into slavery and/or something worse awhile ago.
I should try being more optimistic.
Update: The Nigerian military is now claiming they killed the impersonator of Abubakar Shekau and not Shekau himself. What the hell is going on over there?
So how is Nigeria these days? Better? Worse?
I can't say better, but there are reports that Boko Haram's leader, Abubakar Shekau, was killed in a battle near, or possibly in, Cameroon. Shekau was a bit of an asshole, and seemed to be effective, so his removal may actually do some good and bring Boko Haram to the negotiating table.
Oh, look at that. The government of Nigeria and the Red Cross are in talks with Boko Haram about swapping the kidnapped girls for captured Boko Haram leaders. I'm a bit shocked, I figured those girls had been sold into slavery and/or something worse awhile ago.
I should try being more optimistic.
Update: The Nigerian military is now claiming they killed the impersonator of Abubakar Shekau and not Shekau himself. What the hell is going on over there?
Wednesday, July 23, 2014
Top 10 "Global Concerns" 2014 Edition
This year's Warhorse Global Concerns is coming a few days early because I'm leaving shortly to go on a quick vacation and I don't want to have to think about it while sitting in a hotel room. As mentioned in last year's Top 10 I compile this list based on what I've read and my own personal analysis...and by analysis I mean bias. This is what the list looked like last year:
10. Nigeria
9. Iran
8. Tunisia
7. Somalia
6. Mali
5. North Korea
4. Iraq
3. Egypt
2. Syria
1. Afghanistan/Pakistan
Loyal readers of this blog likely recall that my Top 10 doesn't change all that much from year to year. There are some fluctuations and some countries fall off or are added, but for the most part conflicts continue to simmer. For this year, Iran, Tunisia, and Mali fell off. I also combined Iraq and Syria because, well, duh. Iran was removed due to my belief that they are way too distracted with Syria/Iraq to really try anything silly in the near term, but we shall see. Tunisia and Mali also fell off because while I don't think those particular conflicts (Tunisia's being residual leftovers from Arab Spring and Mali's being the Tuareg/AQIM uprising) are over, I do believe they are contained...for the most part. Enough blabbering! Here's the list for 2014:
10. South Sudan
Conflict between the government and rebels forced various African countries to send military forces into South Sudan. A peace deal was signed in May, but I don't think peace will last.
9. North Korea
I'm dropping Best Korea from 5th to 9th but I just can't take them off the list entirely. There is just too much tension between North and South and I'm not convinced of Kim Jong-un's sanity. If I were China, I would attempt regime change.
8. Xinjiang, China
Speaking of China...something is afoot in the western region of Xinjiang. Is there a red line for the Muslim Uighur population and how long before they attempt a full on revolt?
7. Somalia
African nations contributing peacekeeping/counter insurgency forces to Somalia continue to find themselves stretched thin by other conflicts. Al Shabaab has taken advantage and brought the fight to Kenya on a few occasions.
6. Nigeria
Hashtag activism isn't going to stop Boko Haram. Especially when I suspect they may be winning.
5. Egypt
There's a war in the Sinai but nobody seems to care. Things aren't exactly peachy in the west either.
4. Libya
I haven't been paying much attention here. From what I can gather there are lots of militia groups claiming territory and fighting over neighborhoods in Tripoli and Benghazi. The government is pretty much ineffective. What happens when you only help with one half of regime change? The situation in Libya happens.
3. Ukraine
This potential WWIII flash point certainly came out of nowhere.
2. Afghanistan/Pakistan
The Taliban made a "fighting season" push in Helmand but were not all that successful thanks to the Afghan security forces. The country also managed to pull off presidential elections. A glimmer of hope?
1. Iraq/Syria
A clusterfuck. That is all.
Edit: I did not include Israel-Palestine/Gaza on this list because conflict between those two is essentially "same shit, different day".
10. Nigeria
9. Iran
8. Tunisia
7. Somalia
6. Mali
5. North Korea
4. Iraq
3. Egypt
2. Syria
1. Afghanistan/Pakistan
Loyal readers of this blog likely recall that my Top 10 doesn't change all that much from year to year. There are some fluctuations and some countries fall off or are added, but for the most part conflicts continue to simmer. For this year, Iran, Tunisia, and Mali fell off. I also combined Iraq and Syria because, well, duh. Iran was removed due to my belief that they are way too distracted with Syria/Iraq to really try anything silly in the near term, but we shall see. Tunisia and Mali also fell off because while I don't think those particular conflicts (Tunisia's being residual leftovers from Arab Spring and Mali's being the Tuareg/AQIM uprising) are over, I do believe they are contained...for the most part. Enough blabbering! Here's the list for 2014:
10. South Sudan
Conflict between the government and rebels forced various African countries to send military forces into South Sudan. A peace deal was signed in May, but I don't think peace will last.
9. North Korea
I'm dropping Best Korea from 5th to 9th but I just can't take them off the list entirely. There is just too much tension between North and South and I'm not convinced of Kim Jong-un's sanity. If I were China, I would attempt regime change.
8. Xinjiang, China
Speaking of China...something is afoot in the western region of Xinjiang. Is there a red line for the Muslim Uighur population and how long before they attempt a full on revolt?
7. Somalia
African nations contributing peacekeeping/counter insurgency forces to Somalia continue to find themselves stretched thin by other conflicts. Al Shabaab has taken advantage and brought the fight to Kenya on a few occasions.
6. Nigeria
Hashtag activism isn't going to stop Boko Haram. Especially when I suspect they may be winning.
5. Egypt
There's a war in the Sinai but nobody seems to care. Things aren't exactly peachy in the west either.
4. Libya
I haven't been paying much attention here. From what I can gather there are lots of militia groups claiming territory and fighting over neighborhoods in Tripoli and Benghazi. The government is pretty much ineffective. What happens when you only help with one half of regime change? The situation in Libya happens.
3. Ukraine
This potential WWIII flash point certainly came out of nowhere.
2. Afghanistan/Pakistan
The Taliban made a "fighting season" push in Helmand but were not all that successful thanks to the Afghan security forces. The country also managed to pull off presidential elections. A glimmer of hope?
1. Iraq/Syria
A clusterfuck. That is all.
Edit: I did not include Israel-Palestine/Gaza on this list because conflict between those two is essentially "same shit, different day".
Wednesday, May 7, 2014
Boko...Have Trouble Giving A Damn
If you have been watching, reading, or listening to the news lately then you are likely aware of increased violence in Nigeria due to the terrorist group Boko Haram as well as the kidnapping of nearly 300 school girls by that organization. I haven't written much about Nigeria or Boko Haram, although the country made my "Top 10" List last year (spoiler: Nigeria will probably make it again this year).
Boko Haram, aka The Congregation of the People of Tradition for Proselytism and Jihad (or in Arabic, Jamat Ahl as-Sunnah lid-da'wa wal-Jihad), was founded in 2002 and is an Islamic group found primarily in northern Nigeria as well as parts of Cameroon and Niger. They seek an Islamic state ruled by Sharia law. Boko Haram's tactics to gain this state are through terrorism and guerilla warfare...because fuck peaceful means (bias alert).
So yeah, another part of the world that I'll keep a closer eye on. One never knows when the US will decide to get involved. But it's not like Nigeria has oil or anything...oh wait, they do. However, the kidnapping of some school girls won't likely turn the eyes of the US government which is working to cut the budget of the military to save some cash. Events would have to seriously escalate for that to happen.
Look at that. We are getting involved...a little bit.
300 hundred more dead? This is going downhill fast.
But why the sudden interest in Nigeria? Sure, nearly 300 school girls is a lot but school girls get attacked in Afghanistan all the time. Schools are burned to the ground. Villagers' fingers cut off for voting. Etc, etc, etc. When did Americans stop caring about that?
How about over 300 children kidnapped by the Kurdistan Workers Pary (PKK) in Turkey? Anybody care about that? Bueller? Bueller?
No? Funny...
Boko Haram, aka The Congregation of the People of Tradition for Proselytism and Jihad (or in Arabic, Jamat Ahl as-Sunnah lid-da'wa wal-Jihad), was founded in 2002 and is an Islamic group found primarily in northern Nigeria as well as parts of Cameroon and Niger. They seek an Islamic state ruled by Sharia law. Boko Haram's tactics to gain this state are through terrorism and guerilla warfare...because fuck peaceful means (bias alert).
So yeah, another part of the world that I'll keep a closer eye on. One never knows when the US will decide to get involved. But it's not like Nigeria has oil or anything...oh wait, they do. However, the kidnapping of some school girls won't likely turn the eyes of the US government which is working to cut the budget of the military to save some cash. Events would have to seriously escalate for that to happen.
Look at that. We are getting involved...a little bit.
300 hundred more dead? This is going downhill fast.
But why the sudden interest in Nigeria? Sure, nearly 300 school girls is a lot but school girls get attacked in Afghanistan all the time. Schools are burned to the ground. Villagers' fingers cut off for voting. Etc, etc, etc. When did Americans stop caring about that?
How about over 300 children kidnapped by the Kurdistan Workers Pary (PKK) in Turkey? Anybody care about that? Bueller? Bueller?
No? Funny...
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