tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-174141102960276412024-02-06T23:39:31.599-05:00Warhorse IntelInsurgents, counter-insurgents, and my frustrations in dealing with both. Puppies on occasion.Warhorse Intelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06709794897545503072noreply@blogger.comBlogger316125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17414110296027641.post-4497513698870095952015-03-18T13:34:00.000-04:002015-03-18T13:34:38.718-04:00The End...For NowI've come to the extremely difficult decision to put an end to this blog. I just don't have the time nor the desire to update as much as I would like to so instead of a post or two a month I'm just going to step away.<br />
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The original purpose of Warhorse Intel was to describe my thoughts and experiences during my third deployment to Iraq in 2009. The blog evolved after my return to the States to writing about my thoughts of insurgencies and conflicts throughout the world as well as stories from my deployments. Writing became therapeutic and helped to remove some demons that hung around far too long. However, all things must end.<br />
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Thank you for reading.<br />
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<br />Warhorse Intelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06709794897545503072noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17414110296027641.post-2881969142508332262015-03-08T09:31:00.001-04:002015-03-08T09:31:34.972-04:00ISIS and Boko Haram Now BFFs<a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/mar/07/boko-haram-suicide-bombers-50-dead-maiduguri" target="_blank">Well I certainly</a> didn't see Nigeria's Boko Haram declaring allegiance with The Islamic State<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 19.2000007629395px;">©</span>, although I probably should have seen it as a possibility. Overall this doesn't exactly change anything but the announcement, which apparently is legit, does show a shifting in power from the global jihadist dominance of Al Qaeda to the upstart ISIS/ISIL/IS. Due to my lack of knowledge in the nuances of African and Nigerian Islamic insurgency I would have assumed Boko Haram would have aligned itself with AQIM over ISIS, but apparently an offshoot of Boko Haram, Ansaru, <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2015/03/07/africa/nigeria-boko-haram-isis/index.html" target="_blank">has already done that</a>. Boko Haram's brutal tactics are more similar to ISIS' than AQ's anyway.<br />
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ISIS is really building up that street cred.<br />
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To add to the fun, ISIS has apparently gotten a <a href="http://www.ibtimes.com/isis-afghanistan-says-senior-army-official-militants-have-raised-black-flags-southern-1787158" target="_blank">foothold in Afghanistan</a>. An Afghan army general is claiming there are ISIS elements recruiting in some of the southern provinces, which is very interesting since the southern Afghan provinces are the Taliban's home turf. Could this be a sign that the Afghan population is turning against the Taliban and that the Taliban don't have the control that they claim? Possibly, but it concerns me that instead of fighting the Taliban with the government, or at least not supporting the Taliban, there are individuals who choose to join ISIS instead. At least the Taliban was the legit (sort of and not really in any internationally acknowledged way) government of Afghanistan at one point.<br />
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Where will ISIS pop up next?Warhorse Intelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06709794897545503072noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17414110296027641.post-10573280131682778172015-02-24T15:37:00.002-05:002015-02-24T15:37:27.502-05:00Thoughts To Chew OnI came across a couple of different articles today discussing civilian/veteran interactions and people's desire to thank active duty soldiers/troops as they come across them (usually in airports). As readers of my blog have noticed, I've written several times about my own personal experiences and feelings when strangers come up to me and start thanking me. It can get a bit awkward, especially for an introvert. My go to response is to just thank them for their "thanks" and move on. My real issue is when people I hardly know pry further then they should, often bringing up something about PTSD or my mental health.<br />
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<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/22/sunday-review/please-dont-thank-me-for-my-service.html?smid=tw-share&_r=1" target="_blank">According to this article</a>, there is a growing number of veterans who don't even like to be thanked for their service. To some of these vets...<br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, 'times new roman', times, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 23px;">"...the thanks comes across as shallow, disconnected, a reflexive offering from people who, while meaning well, have no clue what soldiers did over there or what motivated them to go, and who would never have gone themselves nor sent their own sons and daughters."</span></blockquote>
I understand that sentiment, and a few times during my service (usually immediately after a deployment), I agreed with it. Thanking me felt especially shallow when it came directly after finding out what I did without any further inquiry into my life or story. What exactly is this person thanking me for?<br />
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But the statement (and the article in general) feels asshole'ish. This comment really irked me:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, 'times new roman', times, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 23px;">“At least with Vietnam, people spit on you and you knew they had an opinion.”</span></blockquote>
I'm sorry, but I'd rather be thanked than spit on. Don't let that chip on your shoulder blind you to what could be genuine thoughtfulness. Something I need to remind myself on occasion.<br />
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<a href="https://medium.com/the-smoking-gun/thank-you-for-your-service-39f6f2a2bf92" target="_blank">The second article</a> is a little more sad. There are no heroes in it. A captain takes $40 (!) from an older lady who wants to thank him for what he does, not realizing that she's giving money to an officer who makes more than enough to support himself and his family. The officer, who is also a chaplain, should have declined the money. It's one thing to pay for someone's meal, it's another to just hand them money like they are a charity case. The author calls the captain out on it, but he does it in an obnoxious way which results in the chaplain fleeing the airport bar without paying his tab. Call the captain out on his error, but perhaps encourage him to use that money for a good use, like donating it to the airport USO or finding some lower enlisted soldiers who could use a free meal.<br />
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Warhorse Intelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06709794897545503072noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17414110296027641.post-25774164399716049922015-02-20T11:11:00.001-05:002015-02-20T11:11:34.169-05:00ISIS Threats, Italy Mocks<a href="http://warhorseintel.blogspot.com/2014/11/taliban-shabaab-and-isisoh-my.html" target="_blank">Back</a> in November I wrote a post mentioning ISIS had (sort of) expanded into Libya. Since then, the organization, or at least those individuals claiming allegiance to ISIS, has captured some towns and a little bit of territory in the country. That's not particularly noteworthy; Libya is a bloody mess right now and I'm pretty sure I could get on a flight to north Africa, recruit twenty people, and capture my own little corner of Libya.<br />
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I'd call it Bani Warhorse or <span class="short_text" id="result_box" lang="ar"><span class="hps">بني</span> <span class="hps">حصان</span> <span class="hps">الحرب</span></span>. Somebody design me a flag.<br />
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Anyway...those little ISIS-alligned rapscallions like to use Twitter, and after the group captured the town of Sirte some ISIS-linked accounts <a href="http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/isis-libya-italians-poke-fun-jihadists-twitter-threat-attack-rome-1488767?" target="_blank">threatened to conquer Rome</a>. Good initiative there buddy, but maybe you should keep your focus on Tripoli or Benghazi before taking on a European capital. As for a response from Italy? Italians showed a bit of their humor and warned ISIS of Rome's horrible traffic and public transportation issues.<br />
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Good for them. Now I feel like a cannoli.Warhorse Intelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06709794897545503072noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17414110296027641.post-86991310765082270342015-02-12T19:08:00.003-05:002015-02-12T19:08:38.962-05:00Deployment Nostalgia<a href="https://andymez.wordpress.com/2015/02/04/home-sick-from-a-place-we-never-wanted-to-call-home/" target="_blank">Here's</a> a short blog post that attempts to explain deployment nostalgia. However, I'm not sure it's something that can really be put into words. One has to experience it for yourself before you truly understand.<br />
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<a href="https://medium.com/@Doctrine_Man/another-day-in-paradise-ccab0319aacb" target="_blank">To counter the above</a>, a top ten list of why deployment nostalgia is bullshit. The reality is that deployments are horrible. I have experienced and agree with most of what's on this list. Especially Ali Al Salem Airbase, it really is purgatory on Earth. There's just no other way of explaining it.<br />
<br />Warhorse Intelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06709794897545503072noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17414110296027641.post-78548681203320522732015-01-31T21:28:00.003-05:002015-01-31T21:28:48.989-05:00A Green On Blue Close to HomeA little over a year ago I left ISAF Joint Command headquarters at the Kabul International Airport. One of my jobs as an intelligence analyst was to research and gather information on insider attackers and help get as many of those individuals who had escaped after conducting those attacks on the JPEL/kill list. <a href="http://warhorseintel.blogspot.com/2013/03/been-awhile-since-i-had-this-much-hate.html" target="_blank">This post</a> explains a bit why I took the job seriously, and a bit personally.<br />
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Despite all the insider attacks, or as we called them, green on blue attacks, I never felt unsafe or threatened on the base. There were plenty of people around (not that that would have mattered) and very few Afghan soldiers. I was more concerned with the pack of jackals that wandered around the base than I was of being shot by in infiltrator. Not even the insider attack had occurred on the base a couple years prior to my arrival gave me much concern.<br />
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<a href="http://www.stripes.com/news/middle-east/taliban-claim-kabul-attack-that-killed-3-americans-1-afghan-1.326726" target="_blank">Yesterday</a>, an Afghan in a security force uniform (some say police, some say army) killed 3 US contractors and another Afghan.<br />
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Just a unpleasant reminder that you're never truly safe over there.Warhorse Intelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06709794897545503072noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17414110296027641.post-18894382958096922332015-01-22T14:11:00.000-05:002015-01-22T14:11:33.109-05:00Another Coup In Yemen<a href="http://warhorseintel.blogspot.com/2014/10/yemen-being-yemen.html" target="_blank">When I last posted</a> about Yemen, that country appeared to be potentially collapsing towards civil war. Or was already in a civil war. Depends how pessimistic you want to be. The Shia Houthi rebels from the north had taken the capital of Sana'a, booted out the prime minister, made a peace agreement with the president, and then started fighting with AQAP who were already assisting an insurgency in the south.<br />
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Well, things haven't exactly gone well for Yemen since then (no surprise). <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/01/20/yemen-houthis_n_6507070.html" target="_blank">Two days ago</a>, the Houthis stormed the presidential palace and shelled the residence of the president (who wasn't staying in the palace) in what was essentially a coup. A cease-fire was declared, <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2015/01/22/world/yemen-violence/index.html" target="_blank">but it appears</a> the president, who I assumed was merely a puppet of the Houthis, has resigned along with his cabinet.<br />
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So the Houthis now have complete control over the capital and likely the government of Yemen. This certainly does not please the Sunnis in the south of Yemen, who are also still dealing with AQAP and are in no position to help establish a new government or demand representation in a new government. I see a split in the near future for Yemen.<br />
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<a href="http://www.cnn.com/2015/01/21/politics/isis-gaining-ground-in-yemen/index.html" target="_blank">Oh, ISIS</a> is popping up there too. Hooray!Warhorse Intelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06709794897545503072noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17414110296027641.post-46617222589841033902015-01-15T11:41:00.000-05:002015-01-16T09:15:48.405-05:00UPDATE: Nigeria, ISIS, and AQAPUgh, Nigeria continues to be a hot mess thanks to Boko Haram and that group's apparent desire to be blood thirsty assholes, although I'm quite convinced the government of Nigeria has its share of the blame for the chaos.<br />
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<a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/10/us-nigeria-violence-potiskum-idUSKBN0KJ0HH20150110" target="_blank">On Saturday</a> a suicide bomber struck a market killing 16 and wounding more than 20. The bomber? A 10 year old girl. The explosives were likely detonated remotely. It would not surprise me at all if this girl was one of the 300 or so school girls kidnapped by Boko Haram last April.<br />
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Boko Haram is also continuing offensive operations and recently attacked the town of Baga near the border with Chad. Amnesty International <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jan/09/boko-haram-deadliest-massacre-baga-nigeria" target="_blank">claims 2000</a> people were killed in that attack. <a href="http://www.news24.com/Africa/News/Boko-Haram-attacks-Nigeria-puts-death-toll-at-150-20150113-2" target="_blank">However,</a> the Nigerian government states the death toll was more like 150. I don't know who to believe on this one. Amnesty International is likely getting their reports second hand, which may be exaggerated by locals, but Nigerian authorities are probably trying to downplay the death toll to prevent the government from looking incompetent and keep panic from spreading. Like I said, a hot mess.<br />
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Moving on to Islamic State news...because they are such fun group of lovable scamps. Oh look, the Da'ish-bags are using <a href="http://www.longwarjournal.org/threat-matrix/archives/2015/01/islamic_state_uses_child_to_ex.php" target="_blank">children</a> to conduct their executions. The Islamic State really is doing every thing they can to get as many people as possible to hate them. I've been appalled by AQI/ISI/ISIS tactics since 2005 so nothing they do really comes as a shock to me anymore.<br />
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<a href="http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2015/01/al_qaeda_in_the_arab_2.php" target="_blank">Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula</a> has claimed responsibility for the Paris attack. I wonder what took them so long. I also wonder if France is going to get involved with the civil war in Yemen in order to defeat AQAP. The government of Yemen along with their Houthi puppet masters probably wouldn't allow that, but if France is angry enough that may not matter.<br />
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UPDATE: <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-30826582" target="_blank">Amnesty International</a> has issued (provided may be a better term?) satellite imagery of the area. Their death toll numbers are likely more correct than government of Nigeria's numbers.<br />
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So much ugly news. Here's a puppy to cheer everyone up:<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiKKJwxP8Q-nQupWBWhNybseJzX4JrrkceKNsp4yWk-V87qGFpeUHBWC-R1yvbe1OhlxVZfIBFlghMbIHQoOhfX5ZNJpzMfBNCtHLriVDVw__qv4O78g1-2oYHLFV_RRp2xxTfFAPzz/s1600/Bernese_Mountain_Dog-Puppy.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiKKJwxP8Q-nQupWBWhNybseJzX4JrrkceKNsp4yWk-V87qGFpeUHBWC-R1yvbe1OhlxVZfIBFlghMbIHQoOhfX5ZNJpzMfBNCtHLriVDVw__qv4O78g1-2oYHLFV_RRp2xxTfFAPzz/s1600/Bernese_Mountain_Dog-Puppy.jpg" height="320" width="247" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: xx-small;">He probably poops on the carpet though...</span></div>
<br />Warhorse Intelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06709794897545503072noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17414110296027641.post-55625962937866765882015-01-08T13:55:00.000-05:002015-01-08T13:55:59.946-05:00AQAP Flexing Muscle?I've held off for over a day now from discussing the <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2015/01/08/europe/charlie-hebdo-paris-shooting/index.html" target="_blank">events in Paris.</a>The reason is due to my typical response of wanting to do some kind of analysis, and then usually being wrong, examples being the 2011 terrorist attack in Norway (I figured Islamic terrorism) and the Boston Bombings (I guessed domestic white supremacists). My gut instinct for this attack was Chechnyans due to the tactics and apparent professionalism of the attackers. This may be some bias of mine since the Boston bombers were of Chechnyan descent. I didn't think (and still don't) they were "lone wolves" and assessed they were trained, funded, and ordered by either Al Qaeda In the Arabian Peninsula or Al Qaeda In the Indian Subcontinent.<br />
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I wasn't completely pulling this out of my ass. Witnesses state the attackers shouted "Allah Akbar" and said they were <a href="https://www.intellihub.com/heavily-armed-al-qaeda-terrorists-attack-paris-magazine-offices-killing-12/" target="_blank">"Al Qaeda".</a> AQAP from my perspective is the AQ franchise most likely to export terrorism at this time, however the attacks are similar to attacks in Pakistan and India, hence my thoughts pulling towards AQIS. <br />
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Authorities are now saying that two of the suspects are brothers, born in France of Algerian descent. One of the brothers had been previously arrested for <a href="http://dailycaller.com/2015/01/07/paris-attack-suspect-had-links-to-al-qaida-al-zarqawi/" target="_blank">sending fighters</a> to Iraq and Abu Musab al Zarqawi's insurgent cells; those cells and networks would become Al Qaida in Iraq and eventually ISIS.<br />
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So was this ISIS attacking France for air strikes in Iraq and Syria? No. Remember, ISIS and Al Qaeda have had a falling out. Also, ISIS is a tad busy right now and probably doesn't have the funding or the resources to carry out an overseas attack at the moment. The attackers also are reported to have said they were "Al Qaeda from Yemen", interesting thing to say when you're of Algerian heritage. But if the attackers are of Algerian descent, is Al Qaeda In the Islamic Magreb to blame? I'm not ruling them out. AQAP hasn't done much since fighting for Tuareg independence in Mali and then turning on the Tuaregs turning what should have been an easy win into a clusterfuck with French troops occupying Tuareg territory in Mali. Wait...French troops? Hmm. <br />
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So long story short, I'm blaming AQAP. I foresee more drone strikes in Yemen's future. Warhorse Intelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06709794897545503072noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17414110296027641.post-73475246701066104512014-12-31T11:35:00.001-05:002014-12-31T11:35:21.699-05:00Another Mission Ends...Sort OfAs 2014 comes to a close I would be remiss if I didn't remind my readers that <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/28/us-afghanistan-war-idUSKBN0K60FB20141228" target="_blank">ISAF mission</a> in Afghanistan is officially over. The conflict, of course, is far from over; but the combat mission for NATO and the US has come to an end. I still have some colleagues and friends over there at the moment and I doubt they see Afghanistan as anything close to over.<br />
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<a href="http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2014/12/29/Taliban-claim-NATO-defeat-in-13-year-Afghan-war-.html" target="_blank">The Taliban</a>, to no one's surprise, is claiming victory. However, I don't believe true victory will come for them very easily, or at all, in the near future.<br />
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My thoughts on this official ending to the United States' longest conflict: meh. Iraq was much more important to my life, and during my time in the Army Afghanistan was always "that other thing happening". Even though I did a year in the Stan, it felt much more like a job than anything else. I never felt a true part of it. The best way to describe my feelings are those of an individual who shows up late to a movie and asks those around him to catch him up. I had a better understanding of Iraq, and likely always will.<br />
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Warhorse Intelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06709794897545503072noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17414110296027641.post-46840956106895542512014-12-19T13:00:00.001-05:002014-12-19T13:00:48.644-05:00At Least There Wasn't Any TortureMy original idea for this week's blog was to discuss <a href="http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2014/12/afghan_taliban_relea.php" target="_blank">the Afghan Taliban's</a> condemnation of the attack against a school by the Pakistani Taliban. However, that topic is waaaaaaaaaay out of my knowledge league when it comes to having an intelligent discussion about why the Afghan Taliban and the Pakistani Taliban dislike each other (short answer: it's tribal).<br />
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Then I decided to write about the <a href="http://english.shafaaq.com/index.php/politics/12492-first-ground-clash-between-isis-and-us-forces-in-iraq" target="_blank">ISIS attack on Al Assad Air Base</a> in Iraq, but became irked when all the reporting on it stated it was the first time US ground troops and ISIS have fought. First time US troops have fought ISIS since the group changed its name perhaps. I recall several years in Iraq where I tried hunting down AQI/ISI assholes. This is either a case of lazy or shitty reporting. Take your pick.<br />
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Today, however, was my lucky day. It was <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2014/12/18/pentagon-ied-intelligence/20583805/" target="_blank">reported yesterday</a> that the Joint IED Defeat Organization (JIEDDO for short, I really love acronyms that include acronyms in the actual name), which was established to help fight the IED problem in Iraq and Afghanistan, apparently did some intelligence collection no no's. JIEDDO had established a program called the Counter-IED Operations Intelligence Integration Center (COIC) which it then staffed with contractors. These contractors acted as intelligence analysts and were tasked with the mission of analyzing intelligence dealing with IEDs and the various insurgent IED networks.<br />
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I'm going to break here for a moment just to inform you of my bias on this subject. COIC was one of the main rivals to the program I was employed with for a time, the Counter Insurgency Targeting Program (CITP). Mildly interesting fact, the "I" in CITP was changed from "IED" to "insurgency" in an attempt to stay relevant as combat forces (and money) were reduced in Iraq and Afghanistan.<br />
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So what did COIC do wrong? It's analysts, at this instruction of COIC leadership (likely both military and civilian), collected information and intelligence on US persons and companies. Collecting information on US persons/companies is absolutely illegal for intelligence analysts working for the US military. The organization also was collecting information on SGT Bowe Bergdahl, which is two violations...the first being collecting on Bergdahl who is a US citizen, and the second being gathering information on a subject that had nothing to do with IEDs...a mission outside of COIC's scope.<br />
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As an analyst, both military and civilian, I've had it beaten into my head that collecting on US persons/companies is against federal regulations and therefore illegal. I also know that fighting a complex insurgency is extremely challenging (understatement of the week). People are going to slip up on occasion, but from what I read in the article this was a systemic issue. I'm shocked that no one in the leadership of COIC or JIEDDO stepped in to stop these violations.<br />
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No wait, I'm not shocked.Warhorse Intelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06709794897545503072noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17414110296027641.post-69289496878057604802014-12-11T17:12:00.000-05:002014-12-11T17:12:43.988-05:00Short Comment On TortureI've been enjoying beautifully scenic Killeen, Texas for the past week and half or so assisting with a training exercise on Fort Hood so I have not been paying too much attention to anything outside of "The Great Place". What did catch my eye was the release of the Senate's study of the CIA's enhanced interrogation techniques (torture). I have not had time to read it, nor do I think I will (because...boring) but based on the little I've seen from the news people are pretty angry at the CIA, and for good reason. Here are my thoughts:<br />
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Torture is wrong. The end.<br />
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To expand a bit...torture doesn't work. Under torture people will say whatever you want them to say. Using torture also puts a dark stain on the United States. Our enemies...now and in the past...use torture. We should and need to be above such despicable practices.Warhorse Intelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06709794897545503072noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17414110296027641.post-30278903534524594472014-12-03T18:45:00.002-05:002014-12-03T18:45:56.958-05:00Is Helmand Falling To the Taliban Already?It may no longer be the fighting season in Afghanistan due to the onset of winter but someone forgot to tell that to the Taliban operating in <a href="http://www.pajhwok.com/en/2014/11/29/toll-mounts-helmand-battle-enters-3rd-day" target="_blank">Helmand Province</a>. Late last month, Taliban forces attacked Camp Bastion which was turned over to Afghanistan by U.S. Marines and the British Army in October. According to Afghan press, the fighting lasted a couple of days and the Taliban were able to breach the base perimeter and occupy some buildings.<br />
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You may remember, <a href="http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2012/09/6_harrier_jets_destr.php" target="_blank">Camp Bastion</a> was attacked in September 2012 and the Taliban were able to destroy several Marine aircraft in that assault.<br />
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<a href="http://www.tolonews.com/en/afghanistan/17286-10-ana-32-taliban-insurgents-killed-in-helmand" target="_blank">Taliban forces</a> have also attacked Afghan Army bases in the Sangin and Shorabak areas of Helmand Province. These guys aren't messing around.<br />
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Next Spring is going to be very very interesting.Warhorse Intelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06709794897545503072noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17414110296027641.post-54863119208212789252014-11-21T13:43:00.001-05:002014-11-21T13:43:41.301-05:00Taliban, Shabaab, and ISIS...Oh MyI've got some interesting stories/articles to share for you to peruse at your leisure this weekend and/or while you are trying to avoid interacting with family during Thanksgiving. Some of this news is good, some is neutral, and some is bad. Spoiler alert: it's all going to end up bad in the long term. There I go being pessimistic again.<br />
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<a href="http://www.khaama.com/taliban-supreme-leader-mullah-omar-has-possibly-died-8778" target="_blank">News out of Afghanistan</a> is that the leader of the Taliban, Mullah Omar, is dead. The information is coming from the Afghan National Directorate of Security (NDS) so I'm going to take it with a grain of salt. Having said that, I tend to believe NDS reporting over some of the crap the US puts out concerning the Taliban. The NDS also claim that due to Mullah Omar's death, Taliban leadership has split into three groups and "differences" have arisen.<br />
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Here's my perspective: Mullah Omar hasn't been credibly seen since fleeing Kandahar on a motorbike back when the US invaded Afghanistan. There have been many reports saying he's dead and many reports saying he's alive. On occasion Mullah Omar has issued written statements but those statements could just be some senior Taliban leader claiming to be Mullah Omar. As for Taliban infighting, that's probably pretty likely. During my brief time in Kabul there was information out there about senior Taliban members splintering off or creating discord due to difference of opinions. It's a slight glimmer of hope I have for Afghanistan that the Taliban can't/won't be organized enough to completely over-run the country again.<br />
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For some actual optimism, <a href="http://news.yahoo.com/somali-leader-sees-islamist-rebels-towns-end-153851679.html" target="_blank">the Somali president</a> claimed that by the end of the year Al Shabaab fighters would be pushed out of all the remaining territory the group holds. For awhile on this blog I was predicting every few months that Al Shabaab only had about 6 months left until it was defeated. Well screw it, I'm saying it again: by the middle of next year Al Shabaab will hold no territory and be nothing but a small terrorist group that is merely a thorn in the side of the Somali government and the African Union.<br />
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Feel free to call me out on that in June.<br />
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<a href="http://time.com/3593885/isis-libya-iraq-syria-terrorism-derna/" target="_blank">ISIS just captured</a> the Syrian town of Derna...wait did I write Syrian? I meant Libyan. THE FUCK IS ISIS DOING IN LIBYA??!! Calm down, no need to panic. Apparently some punks called the Islamic Youth Council changed their name and flag and pledged their allegiance to ISIS. It helps that members of that particular militia just returned from Syria after fighting for ISIS; so it's not so much as ISIS suddenly expanding and more like ISIS attempting to set up a colony. <a href="http://warhorseintel.blogspot.com/2011/11/yeah-i-didnt-see-this-coming-at-all.html" target="_blank">Eastern Libya</a> was already pretty extremist to begin with (think Alabama/Mississippi of Libya) and the whole country is just a mess so I'm not overly concerned.<br />
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I'll become concerned when ISIS can actually <a href="http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2014/11/al_qaeda_in_the_arab_1.php" target="_blank">make some real friends.</a> Warhorse Intelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06709794897545503072noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17414110296027641.post-69504515771336479302014-11-14T14:21:00.001-05:002014-11-14T14:21:24.081-05:00Iran Makes Its Own "Beast"Iranian military development is at it again...or so they claim. <a href="http://warhorseintel.blogspot.com/2011/12/did-iran-really-shoot-down-beast.html" target="_blank">Back in 2011</a> the U.S. apparently lost a super secret UAV (the Beast of Kandahar) along the border area between Iran and Afghanistan. Iran claimed to have recovered the aircraft and paraded it to news media (or at least a flimsy looking mock up).<br />
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Now Iran is stating to have reverse engineered the U.S. drone <a href="http://www.cbsnews.com/news/iran-replica-of-us-stealth-rq170-sentinel-drone-flying-in-video/" target="_blank">and made one of their own</a>. The video they've released does not create any sense of dread for me. It looks like a strong breeze would blow that thing off course.<br />
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It's not like Iran would <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/02/13/iran-jet-photoshop-image_n_2677778.html" target="_blank">lie</a> about new military <a href="http://thelede.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/07/10/in-an-iranian-image-a-missile-too-many/?_r=0" target="_blank">technology</a>.Warhorse Intelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06709794897545503072noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17414110296027641.post-6918952563828844862014-11-06T21:33:00.000-05:002014-11-06T21:33:17.075-05:00Another GoodbyeI woke up Wednesday morning to some expected but sad and unfortunate news. A former coworker of mine, Major Christopher Franco, passed away after a long battle with cancer. I will always remember Chris fondly as a quirky guy who always pushed himself and didn't let anything bother him.<br />
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I first met Chris when I was in the 296 Brigade Support Battalion and he came over from 5-20 Infantry (or as he called them, "The Tweez"). Chris was a former infantry officer branch detailed over to logistics, but he refused to give up his infantry mentality. One memory I have of him is from PT when the officers were scheduled to run the route around the airfield on FT Lewis. Chris shows up in his PT uniform plus his flak vest with the kevlar sapi plates inside. As he put it to us, he wasn't about the BSB "make him soft."<br />
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We both worked on staff and since I was a 1st lieutenant still figuring things out and Chris was a captain, he took me under his wing a bit. He was there to talk to when I was going through a tough period in my life and during the 2006-07 deployment he could be counted on to always have a ridiculously funny story about his first trip to Iraq.<br />
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Rest in peace Chris. I'll meet you at Fiddlers' Green.Warhorse Intelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06709794897545503072noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17414110296027641.post-41967406806284820332014-11-04T21:29:00.001-05:002014-11-04T21:29:47.234-05:00A Few Links To Keep You OccupiedI've been feeling rather lazy lately so instead of a full post I'm just going to link to some interesting articles I've come across over the past several days.<br />
<br />The first is <a href="https://medium.com/@Doctrine_Man/learning-to-drink-beer-with-a-straw-93308b1649d6" target="_blank">a fun little interview</a> with John Nagl. For those not in the know, Dr Nagl is a former U.S. Army officer and one of the leaders in counter-insurgency movement that swept the U.S. military around 2006. The Army is currently moving away from counter-insurgency to focus more on conventional force on force tactics which I find a bit frightening. After the Vietnam War, the U.S. believed the conflict was an anomaly and refocused on tank vs tank warfare. The U.S. moving back to that "big armored formation" mentality now that Afghanistan is winding down and Iraq is several years over (<a href="http://or%20is%20it/?" target="_blank">or is it?</a>). Lessons that were learned through blood, sweat, and treasure are going to have to be relearned sooner rather than later...and it will be hell to pay.<br />
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Some <a href="http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2014/10/iraq-to-finally-get-rid-of-fake-bomb.html" target="_blank">brighter news</a>, Iraq is getting rid of fake bomb detectors that the Maliki government stubbornly refused to give up. Even with no moving parts; even after being told time and time again they don't work; even after the man that sold them was arrested in the UK; the Iraqi government kept ADE-651s on checkpoints in and around Baghdad. How many innocent Iraqis died because of this hubris?<br />
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<a href="http://warhorseintel.blogspot.com/2014/09/boko-haram-update.html" target="_blank">Remember back in September</a> when it was reported that the government of Nigeria was in talks with Boko Haram to release those kidnapped school girls? Do you also happen to remember that I wrote that I had assumed the girls had already been sold into slavery? I hate to say this, but it appears <a href="http://www.ajc.com/news/news/world/boko-haram-denies-cease-fire-says-schoolgirls-marr/nhx4y/" target="_blank">I may have been right</a>. Boko Haram is denying a cease-fire with the government and is also claiming the school girls have already been "married off".<br />
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I'll be over here in the corner attempting to not be so cynical.Warhorse Intelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06709794897545503072noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17414110296027641.post-52259239985425120452014-10-28T13:59:00.000-04:002014-10-28T14:11:47.459-04:00Yemen Being YemenWhile I was distracted with tiny little inconveniences such as living my life, Yemen has become quite the busy place. A quick summary: Houthi rebels from the north went on the offensive (much like ISIS did in Iraq), captured the capital of Sana'a, forced the prime minister to step down, occupied multiple government buildings, signed a political deal with the Yemenis president, and then started battling Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula fighters when their offensive collided with AQAP's offensive. At least that's how I'm interpreting all of what I'm reading.<br />
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Pause for breath.<br />
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First off, <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-29319423" target="_blank">who the fuck are the Houthis?</a> I'm showing my Yemen ignorance because apparently they've been around for awhile. Read the BBC article on them but in a nutshell they are a political movement/rebel group that follow a minority brand of Shia Islam. The Houthis did not particularly like the prime minister and after a military offensive in the north along with protests in the capital, <a href="http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2014/09/houthi_rebels_sweep.php" target="_blank">they captured Sana'a.</a> Of course, once you have the capital people start paying attention to what you want and <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-29302898" target="_blank">President Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi</a> quickly signed a deal with the Houthis giving them what they wanted, mostly a new government under a new prime minister.<br />
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The Houthis aren't done, however. After taking Sana'a they've continued their offensive momentum and pushed into central and western Yemen capturing the port of <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2014/10/yemen-houthis-hudaydah-201410149654886715.html" target="_blank">al-Hudaydah</a> which is Yemen's second largest port next to Aden. By moving into central Yemen, the Houthis have now come into conflict with fighters and tribal members loyal to our old friends Al Qaeda who have blunted <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/25/us-yemen-security-idUSKCN0IE0DE20141025" target="_blank">the Houthi advance.</a><br />
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For a short while, Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula was seen as the AQ franchise most likely to cause trouble for The West and there were rumors Yemen may become the next Afghanistan. If you recall, <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2012/02/16/justice/michigan-underwear-bomber-sentencing/" target="_blank">The Underwear Bomber</a> was part of a plot by AQAP to conduct attacks against the United States. Then AQAP fell out of the news and we all became distracted by ISIS, Ebola, The Bachelor, and whatever else we in The West (America) tend to get distracted by. <br />
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Of course I realize that I'm over-simplifying this conflict. The Houthis didn't just come out of nowhere and AQAP hasn't become entrenched in southern and eastern Yemen by accident. Yemen is a complicated place full of tribal grievances and political strife that goes back to the civil war in 1994. Well, more likely the conflict can be traced to when Yemen was actually two separate countries, or possibly when it was under British colonial rule. Or maybe the Ottomans are the blame? No no no, this must go back to <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ayyubid_dynasty" target="_blank">the Ayyubid Dynasty.</a><br />
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But what can solve this everlasting tribal/political/cultural crisis? <a href="http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2014/10/3_aqap_fighters_repo.php" target="_blank">Airstrikes...duh.</a><br />
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Update: I'm aware that U.S. airstrikes are not meant to solve the conflict in Yemen. They are for killing AQAP douchewaffles.Warhorse Intelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06709794897545503072noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17414110296027641.post-45770399538113087202014-10-16T20:35:00.002-04:002014-10-16T20:35:53.581-04:00The Islamic State Has Chemical Weapons OH NOOOOO!!!!<div class="tr_bq">
In the past few days there have been a multitude of <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/10/14/isis-chemical-weapons-_n_5987106.html" target="_blank">articles</a> reporting that insurgents with the Islamic State have acquired and probably used chemical weapons, primarily against the Kurdish militia YPG in Syria. Many analysts and writers are claiming that ISIS must have gotten the chemical weapons (most likely artillery rounds) from leftover Saddam-era Iraqi stockpiles. There are now many bloggers and pundits getting on their soap boxes stating the invasion of Iraq by the Bush administration was the correct course of action because it's now obvious that these chemical weapons are a clear indicator that Saddam had and was hiding a WMD program.</div>
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People need to calm the fuck down.<br />
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ISIS having and using chemical munitions does not mean Saddam Hussein had a chemical weapons program after 1991. Syria has had a chemical weapons program for some time now and only in the past year have they allowed those weapons to be destroyed. ISIS cells could have acquired Syrian munitions prior to those munitions being collected and destroyed.<br />
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However, there's an even more likely explanation, one I've made off handed comments about in the past. See the third paragraph in <a href="http://www.warhorseintel.blogspot.com/2011/02/were-going-to-need-lot-more-duct-tape.html" target="_blank">this post</a> from February 2011. If you don't want to click, here's the statement:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18.2000007629395px;">During a short stretch of 2007 patrols in northern Baghdad were being hit by IEDs made from artillery shells containing chemical agents. Those artillery shells were believed to have come from a bunker complex that had once housed chemical rounds that had not yet been destroyed by inspectors; it was unlikely the insurgents making the IEDs had any idea the rounds were chemical munitions.</span></blockquote>
Or check out <a href="http://www.warhorseintel.blogspot.com/2011/08/they-dont-pay-me-enough-to-put-up-with.html" target="_blank">this post</a> from August 2011 where I'm griping about stupid questions I got during my various times as a battalion intelligence officer. Check out #7 from that post:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18.2000007629395px;">7. *Battalion update brief some time in 2007 in Baghdad after one of the brigade Stryker patrols had been hit with an IED which consisted of a chemical weapon artillery shell.* </span><strong style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18.2000007629395px;">"Why isn't the media reporting on the chemical weapon attacks? Doesn't this prove Saddam had WMD?!" -BSB command sergeant major</strong><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18.2000007629395px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18.2000007629395px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18.2000007629395px;">- This was just part of the rant the CSM launched at me after I briefed this particular attack. The artillery shell likely came from a stockpile of chemical weapons that the old Iraqi Army had but hadn't destroyed yet, or forgot about. These stockpiles were known to the UN and the US and were not part of the WMD reasoning when Iraq was invaded/liberated. The insurgents who used this round likely didn't even know the shell had chemical weapons in it.</span> </blockquote>
If my statements are not convincing enough <a href="https://www.cia.gov/library/reports/general-reports-1/iraq_wmd_2004/chap5_annxB.html" target="_blank">here's a CIA</a> assessment of the Al Muthanna Chemical Weapons Complex, the facility where Saddam's chemical weapons were stored. Three paragraphs stood out to me (ISG is the Iraq Survey Group, the guys looking for WMD):<br />
<blockquote style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 16.2000007629395px;">
<span style="font-size: x-small;">ISG conducted multiple exploitations of the Al Muthanna site to determine whether old chemical weapons, equipment, or toxic chemicals had been looted or tampered with since the last UN visit to the site. ISG is unable to unambiguously determine the complete fate of old munitions, materials, and chemicals produced and stored there.The matter is further complicated by the looting and razing done by the Iraqis.</span><span style="background-color: transparent;"> </span></blockquote>
<blockquote style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 16.2000007629395px;">
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 16.2000007629395px;">An exploitation of the facility reconfirmed previous imagery analysis that the site remained inoperable from bombings and UNSCOM compliance, including destruction of equipment and resources, and no significant production capabilities existed. Facilities and bunkers revealed no evidence of production since UNSCOM departed. </span></span></blockquote>
<blockquote style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 16.2000007629395px;">
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 16.2000007629395px;">Stockpiles of chemical munitions are still stored there. The most dangerous ones have been declared to the UN and are sealed in bunkers. Although declared, the bunkers contents have yet to be confirmed. These areas of the compound pose a hazard to civilians and potential blackmarketers. </span></span></blockquote>
So even the CIA states that chemical weapon manufacturing was not being conducted and Iraq was complying with UN demands regarding previous chemical weapons sites. But what about the rounds that were stored there that had not yet been destroyed? Well, as I mentioned above, insurgent groups managed to get a few of those rounds and used them against US forces. Whether the IED cells knew they were chemical weapons or not can be debated but my analysis is the insurgents were unaware, or at the very least did not know how to properly use them.<br />
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However, why weren't these cases of chemical munitions use reported? Probably multiple reasons. US forces likely didn't want the information getting out that there were all these chemical rounds that were found and not yet destroyed...that just looks bad; not to mention the egg of the face of insurgents getting weapons that were supposedly secured . Also, higher echelons probably didn't want to spread panic among the troops that insurgents possibly had chemical weapons. Lets not even discuss the fact that these were rounds the US allowed Saddam to have and the 1980s when using chemical weapons was OK as long as it was against Iran.<br />
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Except <a href="http://www.wired.com/2010/10/wikileaks-show-wmd-hunt-continued-in-iraq-with-surprising-results/" target="_blank">then Wikileaks</a> happened and all those reports of chemical munitions being used as IEDs were released to media...and reported. But nobody cared because it was 2010 and people didn't want to think about Iraq anymore. Which brings us to today and some insurgent bastards have those chemical munitions again. Suddenly, people care again and are claiming Bush/Cheney/Rumsfeld were correct all along.<br />
<br />Those people haven't been paying attention.<br />
<strong style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18.2000007629395px;"></strong><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18.2000007629395px;"></span>Warhorse Intelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06709794897545503072noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17414110296027641.post-88360703235139415692014-10-09T15:32:00.001-04:002014-10-09T15:32:57.828-04:00Introducing the YPG!I've written here and there about the Kurdish security forces in Iraq, namely the Kurdistan Regional Government's Peshmerga militia and their "secret" police, the Asayish. Long time readers will understand why: I was deployed to northeast Diyala Province, Iraq in 2009-10 in an area disputed between Arabs and Kurds and dealt quite a bit with both the Peshmerga and the Asayish. The "Pesh" have been engaging AQI/ISI/ISIS/ISIL/IS as well as various other Iraqi insurgent groups (namely Jaysh Rijal al-Tariq Naqshabandi and Ansar al Sunna) for years now; primarily in defense of the Iraqi Kurdish people, but also to reclaim "lost" territory. They've had success in some areas, failures in others, and stalemates pretty much everywhere.<br />
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But what about the Syrian Kurds? Who is defending them?<br />
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A Kurdish militia known as the <a href="http://www.naharnet.com/stories/en/150317-ypg-the-kurdish-militia-battling-is-jihadists-for-syria-town" target="_blank">Yekineyen Parastina Gel</a> (acronym time again: YPG); or the Kurdish People's Protection Units for those who prefer English. The group is tied with Syria's Kurdish Democratic Union Party and Turkey's Kurdistan Worker's Party (PKK). YPG denies links to the PKK which is a designated terrorist organization by Turkey and is currently waging an insurgency against that country.<br />
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I'm going to need a flow chart soon.<br />
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The YPG militia, along with their cousins the Peshmerga, utilize female soldiers which is extremely useful for propaganda purposes when you're fighting an extremist group whose fighters <span style="background-color: white;">reportedly <a href="http://nypost.com/2014/09/19/isis-fighters-terrified-of-being-killed-by-female-troops/" target="_blank">fear being killed by a woman</a> (NY Post article, take it with a grain of salt). However, ISIS is known for it's brutality against women which has led to at least one fighter <a href="http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2014/10/05/Kurdish-female-fighter-killed-herself-to-avoid-being-ISIS-hostage.html" target="_blank">killing herself</a> to avoid being captured.</span><br />
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Or this female fighter <a href="http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2014/10/05/Kurdish-woman-suicide-bomber-attacks-ISIS-monitor.html" target="_blank">utilizing a terrorist tactic against terrorists.</a> That's one hell of a symbol.Warhorse Intelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06709794897545503072noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17414110296027641.post-737170993655370982014-10-04T12:25:00.000-04:002014-10-10T11:00:01.684-04:00Turkey On BoardAs you are likely well aware, this whole Iraq/Syria/ISIS/ISIL thing is a tad complicated. ISIS is gaining ground in <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-29474879" target="_blank">Syria near the Turkish border</a> and in <a href="http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2014/10/islamic_state_seizes.php" target="_blank">the Anbar Province of Iraq</a>. However, they are losing ground to Iraqi and Kurdish forces in the Iraqi provinces of Ninewa and Diyala. The province of Salah al-Din appears to be in a stalemate, especially in and around Tikrit. US airstrikes are helping Iraqi and Kurdish forces, but only in those areas where those forces are going on the offensive.<br />
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Some more good (?) news may be on the way. <a href="http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkish-government-gets-ok-for-military-operations-in-syria-iraq.aspx?pageID=238&nID=72482&NewsCatID=338" target="_blank">Turkey's Parliament</a> voted to allow the Turkish military to conduct operations in Iraq and Syria. I'm glad they are finally on board, but what was the catalyst for pushing Turkey into this fight?<br />
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It may be a little known Turkish enclave (technically an exclave, but who the hell cares) in Syria.<br />
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The enclave is the tomb of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suleyman_Shah" target="_blank">Suleyman Shah</a>, who was the grandfather of Osman I, founder of the Ottoman Empire. In 1921 a treaty was signed between France and Turkey, the tomb and some surrounding land was allowed to remain Turkish territory and Turkey is allowed to raise the Turkish flag and have troops guarding the shrine. <a href="http://www.todayszaman.com/diplomacy_top-commander-vows-suleyman-sah-troops-will-be-protected_360505.html" target="_blank">Turkish commanders</a> have stated they will defend the enclave and come to the aid of the guards there should ISIS attack.<br />
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I read about this enclave a few months ago when Turkey was concerned about an ISIS threat to the shrine, but the story never gained much traction. However, wherever ISIS goes they tend to destroy shrines, tombs, and anything else of cultural value; and now ISIS is just a few miles to the north, in Kobani. Will we see a Turkish invasion of Syria in the coming weeks/months? My gut instinct says not...maybe some airstrikes, but no ground troops. Unless ISIS takes the shrine. Then all bets are off.<br />
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Edit: I originally stated that Suleyman Shah was the father of Osman I. He is actually the grandfather.<br />
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<br />Warhorse Intelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06709794897545503072noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17414110296027641.post-57915469996076666952014-09-24T19:52:00.000-04:002014-09-25T22:34:21.924-04:00Update on the Update: Boko Haram Update<a href="http://warhorseintel.blogspot.com/2014/05/bokohave-trouble-giving-damn.html" target="_blank">Last time I mentioned</a> Nigeria and Boko Haram back in May violence was increasing, the US was getting involved mildly, and the 300 school girls Boko Haram had kidnapped were no closer to being released. <a href="http://warhorseintel.blogspot.com/2014/07/top-10-global-concerns-2014-edition.html" target="_blank">Nigeria</a> even made my "Warhorse Top 10".<br />
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So how is Nigeria these days? Better? Worse?<br />
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I can't say better, but there are reports that <a href="http://www.thisdaylive.com/articles/security-agencies-probing-whether-boko-haram-8217-s-shekau-killed/189652/" target="_blank">Boko Haram's leader</a>, Abubakar Shekau, was killed in a battle near, or possibly in, Cameroon. Shekau was a bit of an asshole, and seemed to be effective, so his removal may actually do some good and bring Boko Haram to the negotiating table.<br />
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<a href="http://www.cnn.com/2014/09/20/world/africa/nigeria-boko-haram-kidnapped-girls/index.html?hpt=wo_c2" target="_blank">Oh, look at that.</a> The government of Nigeria and the Red Cross are in talks with Boko Haram about swapping the kidnapped girls for captured Boko Haram leaders. I'm a bit shocked, I figured those girls had been sold into slavery and/or something worse awhile ago.<br />
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I should try being more optimistic.<br />
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Update: The Nigerian military is now claiming they killed the <a href="http://www.longwarjournal.org/threat-matrix/archives/2014/09/confusion_over_rumored_death_o.php" target="_blank">impersonator</a> of Abubakar Shekau and not Shekau himself. What the hell is going on over there?Warhorse Intelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06709794897545503072noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17414110296027641.post-97699415092866832014-09-18T21:24:00.002-04:002014-09-18T21:24:40.377-04:00AQIS Wastes No Time<a href="http://warhorseintel.blogspot.com/2014/09/back-with-airstrikes-and-new-al-qaeda.html" target="_blank">In my last post</a> I mentioned that Al Qaeda had formed a new franchise named Al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent. Well, the group has wasted no time in claiming and conducting attacks.<br />
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The first was an <a href="http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2014/09/al_qaeda_in_the_indi.php" target="_blank">assassination</a> targeting a senior officer in the Pakistani army, Brigadier Fazal Zahoor. AQIS claimed that Brigadier Zahoor killed innocent women and children in Waziristan. The attackers rode motorcycles and managed to escape.<br />
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The second attack is a bit confusing. <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/pakistan/11092387/Al-Qaeda-India-branchs-first-attack-ends-in-dismal-failure-as-jihadists-raid-wrong-ship.html" target="_blank">Original news reports</a> state on September 11 AQIS operatives attacked a ship in the Karachi port thinking it was a US aircraft carrier. Instead of a carrier, the attackers found a Pakistani Navy frigate and were overwhelmed by security forces before they caused any damage. Later reports claim the attack actually occurred on September 6 and that the Pakistani ship was the actual target. AQIS announced that <a href="http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2014/09/aqis_claims_failed_p.php" target="_blank">Pakistani naval officers</a> were part of the assault and the goal was to capture the ship and use its missiles to strike US ships in the Indian Ocean.<br />
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So which story is correct? As usual, the truth is probably some combination of the two. However, the story of inept terrorists attacking a US carrier only to find a Pakistani frigate seems to be a bit too far fetched to me. For a change I'm going to believe the AQIS statement. You don't attack a target without knowing what that target is. That's military tactics 101.Warhorse Intelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06709794897545503072noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17414110296027641.post-60501344033340712042014-09-10T22:12:00.002-04:002014-09-10T22:12:53.956-04:00Back With Airstrikes and New Al Qaeda FranchisesOkay loyal readers, I'm back. Croatia was excellent, my apartment in Virginia has been packed up, and I have a new place and job in Maryland. It's been an insane few weeks. So what's been going on since I've been gone?<br />
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<a href="http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2014/09/us_supported_hezboll.php" target="_blank">Hezbollah Brigades</a> in Iraq were successful in taking back a town in Salah al Din Province from ISIS. That's good I suppose. Oh they did it with help from US airstrikes? Hmm, a State Department listed terrorist group being supported in its actions against another State Department listed terrorist group. I knew this new chapter in Iraq was going to make for some very strange bedfellows.<br />
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<a href="http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2014/09/us_confirms_shabaab.php" target="_blank">In other airstrike news</a> the US targeted the al Shabaab emir in Somalia. Apparently we killed him, good. I'm experienced and cynical enough to know that this strike won't be the end of Shabaab, which like the metaphorical cockroach just won't die, but I do hope Ahmed Abdi Godane's death disrupts Shabaab's operations enough that African Union and Somali forces can gain some more momentum in defeating the group.<br />
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<a href="http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2014/09/al_qaeda_opens_branc.php" target="_blank">Holy crap a new acronym!</a> Al Qaeda has claimed to have formed a new franchise in the Indian Subcontinent called Qaedat al-Jihad in the Indian Subcontinent. In usual Western fashion we're shortening that to Al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent, or AQIS. The group was formed from several groups already operating in the region and brings them all under one banner. I'm interested in seeing how this plays out.<br />
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That's all for now. Maybe more in a few days.Warhorse Intelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06709794897545503072noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17414110296027641.post-46040352791751677782014-08-11T14:45:00.001-04:002014-08-11T14:45:43.600-04:00Another Summer Hiatus<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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I'm taking another summer hiatus from blogging for the next couple of weeks. Primary reason is that I'll be on vacation hanging out on some beaches that look very similar to the one above. Also, I've resigned my position here in central Virginia and will be starting a new job up in Maryland next month. Between vacation, moving, and settling in to my new place, I don't want to stress about the blog. I'm sure you can handle life without it for a bit.Warhorse Intelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06709794897545503072noreply@blogger.com0