I've held off for over a day now from discussing the events in Paris.The reason is due to my typical response of wanting to do some kind of analysis, and then usually being wrong, examples being the 2011 terrorist attack in Norway (I figured Islamic terrorism) and the Boston Bombings (I guessed domestic white supremacists). My gut instinct for this attack was Chechnyans due to the tactics and apparent professionalism of the attackers. This may be some bias of mine since the Boston bombers were of Chechnyan descent. I didn't think (and still don't) they were "lone wolves" and assessed they were trained, funded, and ordered by either Al Qaeda In the Arabian Peninsula or Al Qaeda In the Indian Subcontinent.
I wasn't completely pulling this out of my ass. Witnesses state the attackers shouted "Allah Akbar" and said they were "Al Qaeda". AQAP from my perspective is the AQ franchise most likely to export terrorism at this time, however the attacks are similar to attacks in Pakistan and India, hence my thoughts pulling towards AQIS.
Authorities are now saying that two of the suspects are brothers, born in France of Algerian descent. One of the brothers had been previously arrested for sending fighters to Iraq and Abu Musab al Zarqawi's insurgent cells; those cells and networks would become Al Qaida in Iraq and eventually ISIS.
So was this ISIS attacking France for air strikes in Iraq and Syria? No. Remember, ISIS and Al Qaeda have had a falling out. Also, ISIS is a tad busy right now and probably doesn't have the funding or the resources to carry out an overseas attack at the moment. The attackers also are reported to have said they were "Al Qaeda from Yemen", interesting thing to say when you're of Algerian heritage. But if the attackers are of Algerian descent, is Al Qaeda In the Islamic Magreb to blame? I'm not ruling them out. AQAP hasn't done much since fighting for Tuareg independence in Mali and then turning on the Tuaregs turning what should have been an easy win into a clusterfuck with French troops occupying Tuareg territory in Mali. Wait...French troops? Hmm.
So long story short, I'm blaming AQAP. I foresee more drone strikes in Yemen's future.
Showing posts with label AQIM. Show all posts
Showing posts with label AQIM. Show all posts
Thursday, January 8, 2015
Thursday, July 17, 2014
Iraq Is Like A Really Messed Up Soap Opera
It's been about 2 weeks since The Islamic State (aka IS, aka ISIS, aka ISIL, aka ISI, aka AQI, aka I'm done here) announced their name change and the formation of The Caliphate. As you'll recall from my last post there were quite a few important and influential folks who rejected this announcement and spoke out against it. So how are things working out for our newly minted Islamic State and Iraq as a whole since this announcement?
Just for honesty's sake, these links are all from the Long War Journal. I love those guys.
An Iraqi military convoy was ambushed in between Fallujah and Ramadi in Anbar Province. Among the vehicles abandoned (and maybe non-operational?) were M113 armored personnel carriers and M1 Abrams tanks. So much for American military equipment being invincible no matter who uses them. If the Islamic State...and that's a big fucking giant IF...makes some kind of massive assault on Baghdad, I'm going to laugh my ass off if the head of the column is an Abrams. And then I'll cry myself to sleep a little bit.
It gets worse, much worse. The Iraqi military attempted to re-capture Tikrit. How did that go? Not so well. Iraqi troops were forced to withdraw from the city. Mortar fire and snipers will do that. Military commanders are blaming Prime Minister Maliki for being a micro managing jerk face.
ISIS...sorry...sorry...IS hasn't forgotten its bread and butter though. An IS suicide bomber blew himself up at a Shia shrine in Baghdad. My favorite part? The suicide bomber was Australian going by the name of Abu Bakr al Australi.
Not going so well for Iraq. But things aren't all peachy for the Islamic State either. Nobody wants to play along with their caliphate idea. Not Al Qaida. Not the Al Nusrah Front (well there's a shocker). And not even the AQ franchise AQIM is on board.
So hard to start a fundamentalist Islamic theocracy these days.
Just for honesty's sake, these links are all from the Long War Journal. I love those guys.
An Iraqi military convoy was ambushed in between Fallujah and Ramadi in Anbar Province. Among the vehicles abandoned (and maybe non-operational?) were M113 armored personnel carriers and M1 Abrams tanks. So much for American military equipment being invincible no matter who uses them. If the Islamic State...and that's a big fucking giant IF...makes some kind of massive assault on Baghdad, I'm going to laugh my ass off if the head of the column is an Abrams. And then I'll cry myself to sleep a little bit.
It gets worse, much worse. The Iraqi military attempted to re-capture Tikrit. How did that go? Not so well. Iraqi troops were forced to withdraw from the city. Mortar fire and snipers will do that. Military commanders are blaming Prime Minister Maliki for being a micro managing jerk face.
ISIS...sorry...sorry...IS hasn't forgotten its bread and butter though. An IS suicide bomber blew himself up at a Shia shrine in Baghdad. My favorite part? The suicide bomber was Australian going by the name of Abu Bakr al Australi.
Not going so well for Iraq. But things aren't all peachy for the Islamic State either. Nobody wants to play along with their caliphate idea. Not Al Qaida. Not the Al Nusrah Front (well there's a shocker). And not even the AQ franchise AQIM is on board.
So hard to start a fundamentalist Islamic theocracy these days.
Sunday, July 28, 2013
Top 10 "Global Concerns" 2013 Edition
It's that time of the year again (why I originally started this in late July I will never remember) for Warhorse Intel's Top 10 "Global Concerns". I compile this list based on the reading I do throughout the year and is entirely my own biased assessment. 2012's list is here. Here's what it looked like:
10. Greece
9. Iran
8. Mexico
7. Kurd/Arab line Iraq
6. Somalia
5. North Korea
4. Yemen
3. Mali
2. Syria
1. Afghanistan/Pakistan
Once again the list between this year and last year are very similar. I'm not going to go in depth as much with each of these or provide links to back up my statements because 1) I don't have a whole lot of time and 2) I'm feeling especially lazy and 3) I'm in Afghanistan, what do you want from me? You're lucky you get a list at all. Anyway, as for the changes...Greece fell off because I think their economic issues are not going to lead to much violence beyond rioting. Mexico also came off as it appears from my little corner of the world that the narco gangs may be losing influence and power, but we'll see. Yemen was also dropped because Al Qaida In the Arabic Peninsula (AQAP) does not appear to be gaining strength and that conflict may be more tribal than anything else and is unlikely to spread. Now, on to the 2013 list!
10. Nigeria
Violence caused by Boko Haram led to a goverment crackdown in the north. That crackdown has led to more violence. My question is, when will Al Qaida officially jump into the fray and openly support Boko Haram?
9. Iran
Maintaining the spot at #9 only because at any time they could announce that they have a nuclear weapon which would lead to an Israeli airstrike which would then lead to...well...chaos. Will a new president lead to any significant change? This analyst says no.
8. Tunisia
Arab Spring woke up some demons in Tunisia. Extremists are becoming increasingly vocal and political assassinations are on the rise. Al Qaida In the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) is also likely looking for a spot to cause some havoc after being routed in Mali.
7. Somalia
Will Shabaab ever quit? I keep saying they are 6 months from being dead but they keep refusing to die.
6. Mali
The Tuareg tribe took over the north with the help of AQIM and friends. The Tauregs immediately regretted this decision and worked with the French to boot AQIM. Tentative peace has followed. I don't think it's going to last.
5. North Korea
For awhile there I thought war really was going to break out but then cooler heads prevailed. I keep them on this list because one day Best Korea may just actually do it and invade again.
4. Iraq
It's no longer just the Kurd/Arab line that's a problem. Violence has reached 2008 levels throughout the country. Everything Prime Minister Maliki does just creates more tension. At what point do the Sunnis revolt? At what point do the Kurds declare independence? At what point does the US return?
3. Egypt
Holy hell this place escalated quickly. Fallen regimes, Muslim Brotherhood in charge, coups, violence, and a growing extremist threat in the Sinai.
2. Syria
A clusterfuck.
1. Afghanistan/Pakistan
I've spent nearly 9 months here in Afghanistan and now have the hands on experience to repeat what I have said in my previous Top 10s...fuck this place.
10. Greece
9. Iran
8. Mexico
7. Kurd/Arab line Iraq
6. Somalia
5. North Korea
4. Yemen
3. Mali
2. Syria
1. Afghanistan/Pakistan
Once again the list between this year and last year are very similar. I'm not going to go in depth as much with each of these or provide links to back up my statements because 1) I don't have a whole lot of time and 2) I'm feeling especially lazy and 3) I'm in Afghanistan, what do you want from me? You're lucky you get a list at all. Anyway, as for the changes...Greece fell off because I think their economic issues are not going to lead to much violence beyond rioting. Mexico also came off as it appears from my little corner of the world that the narco gangs may be losing influence and power, but we'll see. Yemen was also dropped because Al Qaida In the Arabic Peninsula (AQAP) does not appear to be gaining strength and that conflict may be more tribal than anything else and is unlikely to spread. Now, on to the 2013 list!
10. Nigeria
Violence caused by Boko Haram led to a goverment crackdown in the north. That crackdown has led to more violence. My question is, when will Al Qaida officially jump into the fray and openly support Boko Haram?
9. Iran
Maintaining the spot at #9 only because at any time they could announce that they have a nuclear weapon which would lead to an Israeli airstrike which would then lead to...well...chaos. Will a new president lead to any significant change? This analyst says no.
8. Tunisia
Arab Spring woke up some demons in Tunisia. Extremists are becoming increasingly vocal and political assassinations are on the rise. Al Qaida In the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) is also likely looking for a spot to cause some havoc after being routed in Mali.
7. Somalia
Will Shabaab ever quit? I keep saying they are 6 months from being dead but they keep refusing to die.
6. Mali
The Tuareg tribe took over the north with the help of AQIM and friends. The Tauregs immediately regretted this decision and worked with the French to boot AQIM. Tentative peace has followed. I don't think it's going to last.
5. North Korea
For awhile there I thought war really was going to break out but then cooler heads prevailed. I keep them on this list because one day Best Korea may just actually do it and invade again.
4. Iraq
It's no longer just the Kurd/Arab line that's a problem. Violence has reached 2008 levels throughout the country. Everything Prime Minister Maliki does just creates more tension. At what point do the Sunnis revolt? At what point do the Kurds declare independence? At what point does the US return?
3. Egypt
Holy hell this place escalated quickly. Fallen regimes, Muslim Brotherhood in charge, coups, violence, and a growing extremist threat in the Sinai.
2. Syria
A clusterfuck.
1. Afghanistan/Pakistan
I've spent nearly 9 months here in Afghanistan and now have the hands on experience to repeat what I have said in my previous Top 10s...fuck this place.
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