Saturday, November 24, 2012

UPDATE: If It Gets Bad Enough Maybe I'll Get To Go Back

While the world watches Syria, Gaza, and Black Friday insanity who is watching Iraq (other than Joel Wing of course)? I bring this up because I've noticed a disturbing set of events currently ongoing...events that could lead to civil war between Iraqis and Kurds.

First, on November 19 Iraqi military units moved from Baghdad and Tikrit to the Tuz Khurmato area in response to increasing violence and clashes between the Kurdish Peshmerga militia and government security forces. Where is Tuz exactly? Glad you asked...

It just happens to be near Kirkuk and in the Kurd/Arab disputed zone

The next day, 500 Peshmerga were sent to Kirkuk in response to Baghdad's movement of troops.

Now Baghdad has moved tanks and artillery into the "Hamrin Mountains"...whatever that means. The Hamrin Mountains run for miles in north-central Iraq but I suspect they mean the part of the Hamrin Mountains near Tuz.

Are we witnessing the first sparks of an Iraqi-Kurdish civil war or will cooler heads prevail as they typically have in the past? If fighting does occur I suspect the Iraqi Army will wipe the floor with the Peshmerga and easily take Kirkuk, but won't chase the Pesh farther than the mountains of Kurdistan.

As my old XO used to say, "even a troop of Girl Scouts can hold mountain passes against the Iraqis."

UPDATE: Well shoot, looks like the Kurds are withdrawing. No civil war for now.

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