My Kabul attack analysis

I don't usually write anything about Afghanistan and the insurgency there mostly because I am completely in the dark about much of what is going on in that country. Having spent a majority of my Army career either preparing for, or deploying to, Iraq I had enough on my plate to study, train for, and worry over. Unless I was going to be sent to Afghanistan, I wasn't about study it indepth unless I could gleam some good lessons learned.

Having said that, the suicide attacks in Kabul and Mazar-e-Sharif today both interest and worry the hell out of me. Close to 60 people died in the attack in Kabul which occured when a suicide bomber detonated himself outside a Shia shrine. Another 4 people were killed in Mazar-e-Sharif when a bicycle bomb went off outside the city's main mosque.

The reason for my concern is that while terrorist/insurgent groups in Afghanistan have targeted civilians in the past, attacks in Kabul have primarily targeted US/ISAF/NATO forces and the government. Mullah Omar, the Taliban emir, has even stated recently that he is concerned over the the perception that the Taliban were killing civilians. A Taliban spokesman today condemned the bombings and claimed the group was not behind either of the attacks.

In February 2006, an attack at the Golden Mosque in Samarra, Iraq kicked off a wave of sectarian bloodshed throughout the country which led to civil war in Baghdad and caused US forces to lose virtually complete control in the capital.

Were the attacks against the Shia in Afghanistan today an attempt by an insurgent organization...most likely Al Qaida...to create a repeat of what occured in Iraq?

Shia Muslims only make up about 10-20% of Afghanistan's population as opposed to Iraq's 60-65% so an attempt at sectarian civil war is most likely not what is going on here. An expansion of the conflict by Al Qaida and other groups to attack not just NATO and the Afghan government but minority religious sects as well is more likely.

Expand the conflict, create more chaos, instill fear and lack of faith in the government. Those are the ways of the insurgent. Fear leads to anger, anger leads to hate, anger leads to more recruits and more water for the insurgent fish to swim in.