Iraqi "politics"

Update 2: And there are the bombs. Of course that was easier to predict than determining when the Mariners will be mathmatically eliminated from the playoffs (a baseball joke where I'm not mocking the Cubs? Shocking!).

Update: And here we have the pressure by Maliki to have the Kurds turn over the Vice President.

Less than 72 hours after US forces leave Iraq Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki issued an arrest warrant for the Vice President, Tareq al-Hashemi, for suspected ties to assassinations and other attacks. Maliki has also asked the Iraqi Parliament to have a no confidence vote against Deputy Premier Saleh al-Mutlaq. Both Hashemi and Mutlaq are Sunnis who belong to the Iraqi National Movement political party led by Iyad Allawi, a major rival to Maliki. Hashemi has managed to flee to Kurdistan to avoid arrest but how long will it be before Maliki pressures the Kurds to turn him over?

Is this just standard Iraqi politics or a sign of something more sinister? After Maliki returned from his recent trip the United States, member of the National Movement began a series of political attacks and challenges against the Prime Minister. Mutlaq even called Maliki the worst dictator in Iraqi history, so the arrest orders were likely in response to these attacks.

However, this may be the beginning of a Shiite dictatorship where political disagreement by a rival party leads to accusations and arrests. It could also mean that Maliki and his political allies fear a coup attempt or a Sunni uprising. These political moves may be an attempt to mitigate that threat.

How long before AQI and JRTN take advantage of the situation? I give it a week tops before there is another major carbomb attack in Baghdad.