Time for my paranoid and pessimistic side to come out in regards to Iraq. The parliament of Iraq's Kurdistan has voted to send more Peshmerga forces into the Diyala province, specifically around the towns of Jalula and As Sadiyah. My hope is that this is more of a bluff and that the vote is meant to "encourage" the Iraqi government and the Iraqi security forces already around Jalula and As Sadiyah to do more about the violence that is reported to be occuring against Kurds in the area.
However, this could actually be a serious move by the Kurds to once again lay claim the the region, by force if necessary. Due to the upcoming pull out of US forces the Kurds likely feel that they can get away with pushing the Kurd/Iraq border farther to the south and are justifying by claiming they are doing it for security puposes.
From what I witnessed of the Peshmerga in 2009/10, they weren't that good of a fighting force, especially the elements in Diyala. Most of their best units were around Kirkuk and Mosul. During discussions about the abilities of the Peshmerga amongst the 1-14 Cav staff about how the Kurds did fend off the Iraqi Army during the '90s the XO pointed out that Kurdistan is mountainous and "a troop of Girl Scouts can defend a mountain pass". The current Iraqi Army would likely sweep away any Peshmerga resistance in Diyala if given the orders to re-take territory from the Kurds.
If the Kurds do become aggressive in Diyala and Baghdad responds by sending more forces to the province, or just order the units in the area to push back against the Kurds, then violence is more than likely going to break out...with the Kurds on the losing side. The loss of Khanaqin may even cause a ripple effect along the entire disputed border.
With luck, cooler heads will prevail, as they did in 2008 when an Iraqi Army brigade (4/1 IA) was ordered into the Jalula/Khanaqin area to push out the Kurdish Peshermerga forces in the region. The IA brigade commander and Pesh commander actually met and settled on the line of control which prevented any bloodshed.
I'm just not convinced that peace will be able to be maintained without US forces looking over everyone's shoulder. For that matter, why is the UN not involved?
And for my own sake, I hope I read your blog ending correctly, with the satiric and sarcastic voice of the rarely heard military intelligence officer hoping to incite debate. The UN would make the task for the troops on the ground, well, sooo much more enjoyable!
ReplyDelete-Cheers, part II-
Abu Shockr
For your own edification:
ReplyDeletehttp://en.aswataliraq.info/Default.aspx?page=article_page&c=slideshow&id=144370
http://www.rudaw.net/english/news/iraq/3916.html
http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/08/17/an_iraqi_flashpoint_loses_its_american_safety_net
And for my own sake, I hope I read your blog ending correctly, with the satiric and sarcastic voice of the rarely listened to military intelligence officer hoping to incite debate. The UN would make the task for the troops on the ground, well, sooo much more enjoyable!
-Cheers-
Abu Shockr
Abu Shockr,
ReplyDeleteI do use a lot of sarcasm in the blog. My sarcasm helped keep me sane through 3 deployments. As for my UN comment, with US forces leaving Iraq for the most part, would it not be wise for the UN to send some kind of force in order to ensure conflict doesn't break out along the "green line"?
WHI,
ReplyDeleteAfter seeing the devastation decades of active/inactive war has brought to Khanaqin District, it is clear there is no simple fix to the many-sided complicated issue of Arab-Kurd relations. In eight years of war, the United States has barely made a dent in righting the wrongs that occurred during Saddam's Arabization of the region. That said, the military is not to blame for individual local leaders being ineffectual or disconnected with the needs of the people. Well... they might be. (Shrugs)
Bringing the United Nations into the area is a seemingly plausible fix suggested by a number of academics, analysts and military alike. But what overwhelming threat is there in Diyala that could legitimize a handover to multi-national UN forces? And what can the UN hope to accomplish by becoming the new “occupier?”
Is violence going to increase immediately following the departure of US forces? Probably. Is it going to be immediately against the Kurds, overwhelmingly and specifically? Probably not. The threat of having USF, or even “training advisers” return to the area will prevent most ethnically-charged violence against Kurds. The mordant scenario necessary for UN intervention will not play out until extremists – AQI, JRTN, Arabs, Baathists, Al Awda or otherwise – feel enough time has passed there is no threat of US return. It will take several years. And that is assuming the government will fail. I still have a sliver of hope it can hold itself together.
In the meantime, criminal and terroristic events will continue to occur. Some even against Kurds. But the reality is everyone on the ground is so concerned about power, and doing whatever it takes to get power, they don't really care who they step on, shoot or have to blow up to get there – be them Kurd or Arab.
Thoughts?
Cheers,
Abu Shockr
I'm not sure that US forces could possibly even begin to right any wrongs from the Arabization of Diyala, I don't think it was even our place to do so. That is between the GoI and Kurdistan and the individual people of Diyala, Arab, Kurd, and Turkoman. There is a lot of hate on both sides.
ReplyDeleteAs for local leaders being ineffectual, I think a lot of that has to do with a lack of a decision on where the border between Iraq and Kurdistan actually is. Neither Baghdad nor Sulymaniyah are willing to assist a mayor of a town that in a few years they may not have any control over.
The overwhelming threat to Diyala, in my opinion, is not AQI or JRTN, but a potential civil war between the Arabs and Kurds over the natural gas and oil in the region...while claiming to be defending their people. If the UN were to send a force to, at the very least, man the combined checkpoints that were established in Ninewah, Kirkuk, and Diyala I believe that will go a long way to keep violence from breaking out.