The flag of Anarchy, Famine, and Chaos
For those of you not following international news, there are some very interesting things occuring in Somalia. First off, there's a nasty famine sweeping the country, which to be perfectly honest, just seems like par for the course in that part of the world. However, due to said famine, fascinating developments have, well, developed.
The most important of those developments is that Shabaab forces have left the capital of Mogadishu. Shabaab, in case you have forgotten, is the Al Qaida linked organization that has been fighting for control of Somalia for a few years now. As you can read in the article, the group's leaders are claiming that the famine has limited their ability to raise support and funding so they have no choice but to withdraw from the city and allow food aid to be distributed. Is this really the case or has pressure from African Union forces and the Transitional Federal Government's troops finally pushed out Shabaab? Perhaps a combination of events? If your organization is really fighting to control the country, why pull out of the capital to allow food to be distributed? Is that an open admission that your militia forces are disrupting aid to the people?
The AU and TFG moved in quickly to those areas of Mogadishu formerly occupied by Shabaab, but not without some violence. Rearguard forces left by Shabaab engaged government forces moving in, but the government is claiming that it now controls most of Mogadishu. Amnesty is even being offered to Shabaab fighters, and if that's not a good sign I don't know what is.
With Shabaab apparently "on the run" or at least conducting "tactical withdrawals" (it's called retreating!), now would be an excellent opportunity for the US to step up and do what it can to help stabilize Somalia and hopefully turn it back into a functioning nation. Of course with our current debt crisis, Afghanistan, Iraq, and a likely refusal of the American people to accept getting involved with yet another conflict, I highly doubt the US will even think about sending anything other than aid to Somalia.
There's also this little incident that many people still remember.
But this is my blog, which means my world. Back in 2009 I wrote a post discussing how I would advance the insurgency in Somalia and potentially defeat the government there. Well, last night I wrote up some notes on how I think the US and allies should deal with Somalia in order to end the Shabaab insurgency and hopefully bring about stability for the country. Yeah, because that has worked so well for us in the past. Anway, here's what I have:
-Naval blockade to focus on defeating or at least disrupting piracy as well as interdict any weapon smuggling from Eritrea or Yemen.
-Hospital ships, as many as we can spare. Treat this like the tsunami in Indonesia, it's a famine afterall.
-1 x division headquarters with at least 2 x combat brigades in the Somaliland and Puntland regions. I'm swagging the number of troops needed for these areas but both Somaliland and Puntland are autonomous regions with little to no violence, just pirates.
-focus on civil affairs/humanitarian assistance
-special ops raids on pirate sanctuaries
-CAPs (combined action programs, you know those infantry squads assisting local security forces created in Vietnam that I've ranted about needing in Iraq) primarily used in those pirate areas along the coast in order to prevent insurgency
-Mogadishu: 1 x division headquarters for the city plus surrounding territory. Minimum 4 or 5 combat brigades to go with it.
-immediately build and occupy as many platoon patrol bases and company combat outposts as possible; occupy with US, AU, and local security forces
-distribute as much aid and food as possible, there's no reason why a battalion can't do a food drop a day, if not more
-key leader engagements with religious, tribal, and clan leadership. Get them on board with the rebuilding and aid distribution, heck, put them in charge of it. We go and distribute or build where they want us to...within reason.
-rebuilding projects should utilize local workers, not hires from some other part of Somalia
-develop the police forces
-African Union troops out front of all missions when possible until local police are capable, then police out front.
-Remaining regions of Somalia: 1 x division headquarters with 4 x combat brigades
-Develop CAPs if possible, COPs/patrol bases if not...we're talking a big area here
-focus on tribes and clans to develop economy and prevent insurgency...utilize the micro grant program that was successful in Iraq
-humanitarian asssistance focus on herding and agriculture
-work closely with Kenya and Ethiopia to lock down the borders and prevent border smuggling
Like I said above, this will never happen, especially with the forces I've laid out (3 x division HQs, at least 11 x combat brigades...that's not even including support, MP, and aviation brigades that would be needed). If we didn't have Iraq or Afghanistan to deal with it might be possible but does the world even give a damn about Somalia any more? But if I were king this is what I would do.
We can even use this guy to lead my future Somalia.
The most important of those developments is that Shabaab forces have left the capital of Mogadishu. Shabaab, in case you have forgotten, is the Al Qaida linked organization that has been fighting for control of Somalia for a few years now. As you can read in the article, the group's leaders are claiming that the famine has limited their ability to raise support and funding so they have no choice but to withdraw from the city and allow food aid to be distributed. Is this really the case or has pressure from African Union forces and the Transitional Federal Government's troops finally pushed out Shabaab? Perhaps a combination of events? If your organization is really fighting to control the country, why pull out of the capital to allow food to be distributed? Is that an open admission that your militia forces are disrupting aid to the people?
The AU and TFG moved in quickly to those areas of Mogadishu formerly occupied by Shabaab, but not without some violence. Rearguard forces left by Shabaab engaged government forces moving in, but the government is claiming that it now controls most of Mogadishu. Amnesty is even being offered to Shabaab fighters, and if that's not a good sign I don't know what is.
With Shabaab apparently "on the run" or at least conducting "tactical withdrawals" (it's called retreating!), now would be an excellent opportunity for the US to step up and do what it can to help stabilize Somalia and hopefully turn it back into a functioning nation. Of course with our current debt crisis, Afghanistan, Iraq, and a likely refusal of the American people to accept getting involved with yet another conflict, I highly doubt the US will even think about sending anything other than aid to Somalia.
There's also this little incident that many people still remember.
But this is my blog, which means my world. Back in 2009 I wrote a post discussing how I would advance the insurgency in Somalia and potentially defeat the government there. Well, last night I wrote up some notes on how I think the US and allies should deal with Somalia in order to end the Shabaab insurgency and hopefully bring about stability for the country. Yeah, because that has worked so well for us in the past. Anway, here's what I have:
-Naval blockade to focus on defeating or at least disrupting piracy as well as interdict any weapon smuggling from Eritrea or Yemen.
-Hospital ships, as many as we can spare. Treat this like the tsunami in Indonesia, it's a famine afterall.
-1 x division headquarters with at least 2 x combat brigades in the Somaliland and Puntland regions. I'm swagging the number of troops needed for these areas but both Somaliland and Puntland are autonomous regions with little to no violence, just pirates.
-focus on civil affairs/humanitarian assistance
-special ops raids on pirate sanctuaries
-CAPs (combined action programs, you know those infantry squads assisting local security forces created in Vietnam that I've ranted about needing in Iraq) primarily used in those pirate areas along the coast in order to prevent insurgency
-Mogadishu: 1 x division headquarters for the city plus surrounding territory. Minimum 4 or 5 combat brigades to go with it.
-immediately build and occupy as many platoon patrol bases and company combat outposts as possible; occupy with US, AU, and local security forces
-distribute as much aid and food as possible, there's no reason why a battalion can't do a food drop a day, if not more
-key leader engagements with religious, tribal, and clan leadership. Get them on board with the rebuilding and aid distribution, heck, put them in charge of it. We go and distribute or build where they want us to...within reason.
-rebuilding projects should utilize local workers, not hires from some other part of Somalia
-develop the police forces
-African Union troops out front of all missions when possible until local police are capable, then police out front.
-Remaining regions of Somalia: 1 x division headquarters with 4 x combat brigades
-Develop CAPs if possible, COPs/patrol bases if not...we're talking a big area here
-focus on tribes and clans to develop economy and prevent insurgency...utilize the micro grant program that was successful in Iraq
-humanitarian asssistance focus on herding and agriculture
-work closely with Kenya and Ethiopia to lock down the borders and prevent border smuggling
Like I said above, this will never happen, especially with the forces I've laid out (3 x division HQs, at least 11 x combat brigades...that's not even including support, MP, and aviation brigades that would be needed). If we didn't have Iraq or Afghanistan to deal with it might be possible but does the world even give a damn about Somalia any more? But if I were king this is what I would do.
We can even use this guy to lead my future Somalia.
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