Libya is burning. Pilots ordered to attack civilians have apparently defected to Malta. Soldiers who refused to attack civilians have been killed. Reports are coming out stating Gaddafi has fled the capital to his tribal base in the desert.
All of this because a guy in Tunisia decided he had enough with the regime there and lit himself on fire.
Tunisia, Egypt; Libya and Yemen on the ropes; growing protests in Algeria, Moracco, Bahrain, Iraq, and Iran...the actions of one man has led to a cascading effect not seen since one man shot an archduke in Sarajevo in 1914.
Had a discussion last night with a friend over a beer about the situation and the conversation naturally led its way to our involvement in Iraq. Did US intervention and introduction of democracy lead to this?
In a word...no. Not that the two of us believe anyway. At the most, our actions helped destablize the region which created an environment that allowed these protests to occur, but even that's a stretch. No sane and rational person can look at the current political and security situation in Iraq right now and think, "yeah, that's what I want."
As the revolutions spread and grow my biggest concern is how extremist elements like the Muslim Brotherhood and Al Qaida in the Islamic Mahgreb are going to react. Will they attempt to increase their influence during the political vacuums that develop? Will they increase attacks against the security forces? Or will they wait and then strike violently after new governments have been formed, a time when those governments will be at their weakest?
A year from now, what will we see?
But what about the Halls of Montezuma?
ReplyDeleteI'm sure Mexico will start collapsing into civil war any day now.
ReplyDeleteFor me, the question becomes whether the instability leads to governments that reflect the will of the people, or governments that reflect the will of those most willing to go to extremes to enact their vision of government and society.
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