Saturday, February 5, 2011

Perhaps the revolution will be Twittered afterall

Due to the lack of any work/computer space for me in my office and not really having anything useful for me to do anyway, my boss decided that I might as well use my time more effectively than sitting around surfing the internet on my phone and signed me up to attend the BCT S2 course here on FT Huachuca. The course provides guidance and tools useful for those individuals who are going to be a brigade level intelligence officer, but is also a great course for anyone who will be assigned as a battalion level intel officer as I was. I've been really enjoying the course for the past two weeks and part of that enjoyment has been due to the other officers attending the course. We all have excellent imputs based on our experiences; everyone in the class has deployed at some point with the exception of some brand new 2nd lieutenants.

Earlier this week prior to the class starting a few of the majors were discussing the revolutions/protests that have swept through several countries in the Middle East. There was a general concensus that the "domino theory" is bullshit; just because your neighbor country switches to a different form of government does not mean that your country will, or your other neighbor. The US feared the "domino effect" during the Cold War, primarily in Southeast Asia, which was one of the dominant reasons for our little adventure in Vietnam. While some governments in the region did turn communist after Vietnam...Laos, Cambodia, and an attempt in Malaysia...the fall of those regimes didn't trigger some massive communist wave.

A similar reasoning was put forth prior to the invasion of Iraq. If a functioning democracy was established in Iraq than a domino effect of democratic change would sweep the Middle East. I found the idea absurd, it didn't happen during the Cold War and it wouldn't happen now.

(Before you freak out, no, I am not trying to argue that our occupation of Iraq and establishment of a democracy there has anything to do with the revolutions in Egypt, Tunisia, and elsewhere.)

During this discussion, one of the officers pointed out that very few of the countries in the M.E. really have stable governments. A revolution in one nation could easily trigger protests in a neighboring country, which actually happened. This is in part to a shared culture, religion, and language.

For some inexplicable reason I then pointed out that Bahrain is stable...although of no consequence in the scheme of things.

And because I didn't say "knock on wood" there is now a movement in Bahrain to start a revolution in that country as well. Activists in that country are using Facebook and other social media in order to organize a mass protest on February 14. The demonstrations will be against the Sunni monarchy for the oppression against the Shia majority.

I don't think this "Day of Rage" will get much traction and even if it does, a regime falling in Bahrain won't matter much. The only people who may be affected are rich Saudis and western expats who travel from Saudi Arabia to Bahrain to get there drink on. Bahrain is the only non-dry Arabic country.

Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen, Jordan, Algeria, and potentially Bahrain. Which nation is next in line for the "Jasmin Revolution"?

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