Wednesday, October 13, 2010

Yemen still has an Al Qaida problem

Back in September I wrote a blog article about different Islamic fundamentalist groups around the world such as the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, Al Qaida in the Islamic Mahgreb, Al Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula, and Shahab. I mentioned that Al Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula was pretty much defeated along with Al Qaida in Iraq. My exact quote:

"And while other Al Qaidas such as the above named AQI as well as Al Qaida in the
Arabic Peninsula have been all but eliminated..."

Apparently I was getting ahead of myself or just spouting off my ususual assumptions without backing them up with any kind of facts. October has seen a rise in the activity of our little organization in Yemen.

Foreignpolicy.com has an article on Yemen and the issue in which the author puts most of the blame for the terrorism problem in that country on Yemen's president who begs and pleads for international aid but then does very little to combat the problems in the nation, AQIP only being one of them, and pocketing much of the money he receives.

To save me a massive writeup in all the recent actions by AQIP I'll just link to the Yemen page on The Long War Journal's website. What you'll find there is several recent attacks by "gunmen", other random shootings, and an RPG attack. Apparently there was also a plot to shoot down a plane carrying a Saudi Prince. If you can recall, I wrote about phases of an insurgency back in May. Small arms attacks, in my opinion, occur in the beginning phase or the expansion phase (phase II). Attacks against aircraft, SAFIRE, occur in phase III...full on insurgency. The insurgency group that I announced was virtually dead may actually be somewhere between broadening the conflict and full on civil war.

Of course, I may be mistaking one organization for the Yemeni insurgency itself...missing the forest for the trees. There may not be any kind of insurgency going on in Yemen, merely a terrorist organization with some links to a wider network that is taking advantage of a poor security situation, poor economy, corrupt government, tribal/sectarian revolt in the north, and a seperatist movement in the south.

Sounds kind of like California.

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