Iraq happenings

I am very aware that I still owe the discussion of 1-14's election adventure after my little blurb on my deciding which election sites the UN would monitor by throwing darts at a map, but I just don't feel like it at the moment...perhaps towards the end of my 4 day weekend coming up.

In the meantime, what the deuce is going on in Iraq these days?

Well they still haven't formed a government yet. Both Maliki's coalition and Allawi's coalition continue to argue over who has the right to form the new government. Higher headquarters had predicted it would take about 3 months of political wrangling to form a new government but that a decision would definately be made by the time 3-2 SBCT and 1-14 CAV left Iraq. Of the myriad of emotions I felt as I left Iraq one of them was amusement...and a little disgust...that the government still wasn't formed.

Tom Ricks is his usual, pessimistic, glass-is-almost-empty, self in his latest blog on the situation. He links to another blog, Musings on Iraq, that discusses a new Shia organization that Iran has formed in Iraq. They are apparently responsible for an increase in rocket and mortar attacks targeting the "Green Zone" as well as the U.S. embassy; it would not surprise me to learn that they are being accused of some EFP attacks as well.

Another Iranian-backed Shia militia does not really bother me all that much and here's why: after a short term increase in attacks by this group, attacks will slowly decrease as key leaders and supply chains are captured and disrupted. For the most part, members of these organizations that pop up are just former members of Jaysh al Mahdi who broke from that group due to the constant ceasefires with U.S. and Iraqi forces. I can think of three of these organizations in Diyala while we were there and while they could be a headache, they usual did not affect things all that often...with the exception of some Shia on Shia violence. I also doubt that the formation of this organization or the return to Iraq of Ismail Hafiz al-Lami, a high level Shia militia member who aided in the slaughter of Sunnis but fled to Iran, will bring about the near civil war/concentrated genocide of 2006-2007. I do not believe the Iraqi people will stand for that and the Iraqi security forces are in a better position to prevent such an occurance again. Also, the neighborhoods in Baghdad have already been purged. The mixed neighborhoods of the past are for the most part gone so sectarian violence would be difficult to kickstart even if certain individuals wanted to try. Gruesome, but it's reality.

It's the potential for ethnic violence between Kurds and Arabs that worries me.

There is also something afoot in Jalula, the town just north of FOB Cobra. On Monday four police officers would killed by an IED in the town and yesterday a suicide carbomber attempted to attack the funeral. The attacker was killed by security forces and the car detonated without causing any injuries. I'm curious what the police in Jalula have been doing that have drawn the ire of the local "insurgents" but I have my suspicions. Attacks against the Jalula police, specifically the Jalula CID, were increasing as 1-14 was leaving country. This was due to the increasing success and targeting of insurgents and criminals in Jalula and As Sadiyah by the police. This shift was likely because of a change in leadership but I also believe our dismounted patrols with the police led to more confidence and ability of the department. These dismounted patrols did lead to the suicide carbomb attack against our soldiers in June that killed 2 and injured 6 more but were worth it in the bigger scheme of things. 2-14 CAV likely kept up the practice of doing patrols with the Jalula police.

Increase the arrests. Capture some insurgent and criminal elements. Piss off those elements. In Iraq when groups get angry, they use IEDs and carbombs. I see these attacks as a sign of progress for the police, as crazy as that sounds. I'm even impressed that the suicide bomber was stopped. If the Jalula police can keep up the pressure and not resort to some "cease fire" like other security forces in that area have done in the past, then the security situation will most definately improve. That is assuming the whole Article 140 deal determining what Arabs control and what Kurds control ever gets decided. Minor details.