Oil, tribes, ethnic and sectarian conflict...but not Iraq

Intriguing article in the November issue of National Geographic. Unfortunately it's not online so some of you may have to break away from the computer and actually read a real paper and ink magazine.

The article is an overview of the conflict between north and south Sudan and goes into the history and backstory of the issues that led to violence between the two parts of the country and on at least two occasions led to civil war. Most of the time I just look at the pretty pictures in NG but I actually spent the time and read this article. Shocking, I know.

Beginnings of the modern conflict in Sudan can be seen as going back centuries to when Arabs first fanned out from Arabia to conquer land in the name of Islam. In the 600s the Nubians, as the ancient Sudanese were called, fought the Arabs to a standstill. The Ottomans would invade the area again in the 1800s for two reasons: a shit ton of elephants meaning a shit ton of ivory and the large population of African blacks who could be sold into slavery.

In 1899 the British would take over the region in order to maintain control over the Nile River. The Brits ruled south and north Sudan as two regions but put most of their efforts and resources into northern Sudan.

The British Empire slowly withered after WWII and in the 1950s Sudan would gain independence but soon collapse into civil war. The conflict was primarily a fight between the Muslim Arabs in the north where the country is primarily desert and the Christian/Animist blacks in the south where due to the numerous rivers and marshes that feed the Nile a herding economy was the way of life. One more element would fuel the conflict, literally: oil.

I know I've seen something similar...but where?

This map is a bit hard to make out but the orange line is the divide between north and south. The blocks are oil development areas. The red line is the single oil pipeline in the country. Not depicted are the oil refineries, but they are all in the north. Most of the oilfields currently in use are along the border between north and south.

Ok, quick recap. Two different ethnic groups; sectarian differences between the two; large geographic divide; two different economies and cultures; conflict over control of oil resources; majority ethnicity control central government and is attempting to dominate minority ethnicity. This reminds me of someplace...

Ahh yeah, that brings back some memories.

In 2005 the two sides signed a peace agreement that gave the south limited autonomy and also established that in 2011 a vote would be held in south Sudan to determine if the population desires indepedence from the north.

If the vote is actually held and it is determined that the south seeks to be its own nation will Khartoum allow that to happen and watch most of its oil go with it? Will Egpyt be ok with yet another nation controlling the beginnings of the Nile? What will be the reaction of the U.S. and the rest of the world be if violence breaks out on a large scale? Will it be a repeat of the genocide in Darfur where the world sat back, watched it happen, and did nothing?