Ugh, stupid Skyrim getting in the way of my life...or is it life getting in the way of Skyrim? Anywho, I've unintentionally ignored my own blog to fight dragons on my Xbox (and sort of look for a job to get me out of unemployment) but I haven't been ignoring some of the news that interests me. So with that...off to Somalia! My favorite failed state.
When I last discussed Somalia it was back in November and the African Union had somehow managed to push those pesky Shabaab militias out of Moqadishu. Kenya and Ethiopia had also entered the fray and began fighting Shabaab forces along their borders, and into Somalia as well. I pointed out a couple options that Shabaab could attempt which included look to Eritrea for assistance or seek help from Al Qaida.
Apparently Shabaab reads my blog (or the options were limited) and the organization declared a merger with Al Qaida. Will this move help at all? Maybe with recruiting, but I don't see it helping the organization in the long term. As I've mentioned before, AQ seems to be on the run and its financial situation is likely weak.
Just to make things a little more interesting, the Muslim Youth Center, Shabaab's affiliate in Kenya, also declared allegiance to Al Qaida and has become Al Qaida East Africa. Congratulations gentlemen, I see Predator drones in your future.
The African Union has also been busy. Refusing to rest on their laurels, AU has taken the fight out of Moqadishu and is pushing Shabaab in the towns near the capital. Shabaab can't just sit idle of course and continues to conduct suicide attacks and other assaults in Moqadishu when they can like good little insurgents do (did I just link to a Twitter account for Shabaab? I should join just to follow those guys. If only Twitter was around during Baghdad Bob's time).
Is Shabaab done? Not quite. Although when your fighters start fleeing to Yemen that's not a good sign. My advice for Shabaab: continue attacks in Moqadishu when you can but it's time for the organization to go to ground. Wait for the AU, Kenya, and Ethiopia to get complacent and when the foreign troops start to leave you rise up again. They'll also begin leaving when your IEDs and carbombs sap their morale.
My advice to the AU: keep up the pressure on Shabaab. Ask for more assistance from the West and for fucks sake, conduct proper counter insurgency. If stories about your soldiers raping women or leadership ordering villages destroyed start appearing then you might as well let Shabaab waltz back into Moqadishu.
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