Top 10 "Global Concerns" 2011 edition

When I first started this blog over 2 years ago, one of my first blogs was a list of my top 10 "global concerns". That list can be found here. It was a list of those areas of the globe I was most concerned would escalate conflicts already occuring or would break out into actual fighting that may involve United States forces. In case you don't feel like following the link the list looked like this:

10. Iran
9. Mexico
8. Syria
7. Nigeria
6. Mali
5. Algeria
4. North Korea
3. The line between Kurdish Iraq and Arab Iraq
2. Somalia
1. Afghanistan/Pakistan

It was in no particular order except for the top 3 were those conflicts or potential conflicts I felt were the most serious. Having little else to do at the moment I figured I would update the list for 2011. My new top 10 is very similar with only a few changes:

10. Iran
Still on the list for the same reasons as in 2009. A nuclear armed Iran scares the crap out of me but I think Iran at this time is only trying to keep the West from conducting military actions against it and is not seriously contemplating attacking anyone...except through proxy.

9. Nigeria
Once again on the list for the 2009 reasons. I dropped it down because I find it likely that Nigeria's security forces can handle the Boko Haram Islamist terrorist group without our assistance. However, attacks in the nation's northeast are on the rise, to include both IEDs and suicide bombers.

8. Algeria
Al Qaida in the Islamic Mahgreb has a stronghold in this country that is not likely to be removed any time soon. Where exactly is this stronghold? In the Kabylie region, the same region where the FLN (Front de Libération Nationale) had a stronghold in the fight for independence from France in the 1950s. Coincidence? Not bloody likely.

7. Syria
So far the the regime under President Bashar al-Assad has kept a lid on protests in the country which are motivated by the "Arab Spring" seen in many other nations. President Bashar has done this by essentially ordering his security forces and military to open fire on any protesters. If the army ever gets tired of slaughtering its own citizens the regime is likely to collapse which is likely an open invitation for Al Qaida or other terrorists groups to open up shop.

6. Mexico
Jumping up the list this year is our neighbor to the south. Violence is still rising and corruption is still commonplace. How long before the violence begins to spred across the border?

5. North Korea
I don't think I need to explain myself with this one.

4. Somalia
Drops down a couple of slots because it appears that the African Union is slowly gaining control over Mogadishu. Shabab is still a significant threat, however.

3. Yemen
New to the list this year due to the outbreak of what is pretty much a civil war. President Saleh left the country after the Presidential Compound was attacked by Al Qaida in the Arabic Peninsula and their tribal allies and he may or may not be still in control. In the president's absence AQAP and their tribal buddies have taken over parts of Yemen to include the port town of Zinjibar. This one is going to get ugly folks.

2. Kurd/Arab line in Iraq
Not much news from this area recently that I've seen but it's only a matter of time before some drunk Kurd tries to park his car in a marketplace which will then escalate into civil war.

1. Afghanistan/Pakistan
Yeah, fuck this place.

As I mentioned, Yemen is new to the list and Mali fell off. Reason for this is that Mali and Mauritania have been coordinating their efforts against AQIM and appear to be having some success. Ending a blog post with good news? Hell yeah.