Everybody loves a good Top 10 list so here is my list of areas around the world that concern me and have the potential to spread violence and chaos the way a hooker spreads STDs.
10. Iran
A large...relatively...and proud country controlled by a group of religious extremists and whose president denies the Holocaust ever occured. Iran appears to be on the verge of creating nuclear weapons and has stated one of its goals is to wipe Israel off the map. Add in a feeling of being threatened due to 40,000ish American troops on one border and 150,000ish American troops on the other and you have the potential for a very ugly conflict. Iran is also the country that utilized the first modern suicide bomber. A conflict with Iran will most likely look very similar to the Israeli/Lebanon War of 2006, only with nuclear weapons.
9. Mexico
Massive drug cartel problem. Ineffective local security. Ineffective national security. Corrupt local governments. Give these problems some time and some room to grow and one may find a nice little civil war erupting just across our border. Awesome.
8. Syria
Iraq and Syria share a border twice as long as the border between North and South Korea. Plenty of weapons and foreign fighters have slipped (and by slipped I mean easily driven) over the border between the two countries. Plus Syria has been attempting to create nuclear weapons for some time now. Would not surprise me to know that Al Qaida has training bases in the country.
7. Nigeria
Fighting has been on going in southern Nigeria for several years now over the rights to the country's oil resources. Nigeria also has a significant Muslim population that Al Qaida has attempted to exploit. There is also those pesky military coups that have popped up throughout modern Nigeria's history.
6. Mali
Mali? WTF? Mali has a lot of open and ungoverned space that can be easily exploited by terrorist organizations. Al Qaida in the Magreb is known to operate here. I could see Mali becoming the new Afghanistan.
5. Algeria
Speaking of new Afghanistans, Algeria is on this list for the same reason as Mali. Except that Al Qaida in the Magreb actually conducts attacks against security forces and recently a convoy of teachers. Those bastards.
4. North Korea
Do I really need to say anything here? Nukes...check. Large brainwashed military...check. Crazy dictator...check. Heir to the dictatorship who is crazier than current dictator...check. This one keeps me up at night.
3. The "Green Line" between Kurdish Iraq and Arab Iraq
The "Green Line" is the area of control between the autonomous region of Iraqi Kurdistan controlled by the Peshmerga and the area controlled by the Government of Iraq. Conflict arises when the two can't agree where the line should be. One wrong move by either side and civil war, a true civil war not the concentrated genocide of 2006, could break out.
2. Somalia
Similar to Mali and Algeria just minus any effective government at all. The only reason Al Qaida has been unable to establish themselves here is because the Somali tribes/warlords won't stop fighting each other long enough. The current leader of the Transitional Somali Government is a guy who was the leader of the Islamic Courts which is an organization that 1 year ago the US was supporting Ethiopia in fighting. The Islamic Courts was/were supported by Al Qaida, then they weren't. Now Shabbab (the current bad guys in Somalia, try to keep up) are the bad guys supported by Al Qaida. Ugh, tribal societies give me a headache.
1. Afghanistan/Pakistan
You can't talk about Afghanistan without talking about Pakistan and vice versa. Pakistan has nukes and has very angry tribes loyal to the Taliban and Al Qaida who very recently fought their way very close to the capital Islamabad. The idea of a Pakistani government loyal to or controlled by Al Qaida gives me nightmares.
I encourage reader input. All two of you.
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