Another regime falls?

What in the world is happening in Yemen? I turn my back for a short time and it appears that all hell has broken loose.

On Monday it became apparent that Al Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula militants took over the town of Zinjibar, a provincial capital in Yemen. The militants most likely...hell most definately...had the help of tribes in the region who are opposed to the regime of President Ali Abdullah Saleh.

The next day a truce between tribal groups and pro-Saleh forces broke down and fighting around the capital of Sanaa broke out. It appears as if a civil war may be breaking out.

Within days the presidential compound was hit with indirect fire which caused injuries to President Saleh as well as the Prime Minister and several others. President Saleh apparently suffered only minor injuries and gave an audio address on Friday night.

However, events took a twist on Saturday when President Saleh left Yemen to go to Saudi Arabia for medical treatment. People in Yemen are apparently celebrating seeing this move as Saleh reliquishing power and are claiming the regime has fallen.

I find it highly unlikely that Mr. Saleh will be able to hold on to power after leaving the country for Saudi Arabia. I also find it highly unlikely that any transition or seizure of power by another organization will be quick or peaceful. AQAP has gained substantial influence in Yemen and a civil war only serves their interests.

This is going to get ugly, quick.