As you are likely well aware, this whole Iraq/Syria/ISIS/ISIL thing is a tad complicated. ISIS is gaining ground in Syria near the Turkish border and in the Anbar Province of Iraq. However, they are losing ground to Iraqi and Kurdish forces in the Iraqi provinces of Ninewa and Diyala. The province of Salah al-Din appears to be in a stalemate, especially in and around Tikrit. US airstrikes are helping Iraqi and Kurdish forces, but only in those areas where those forces are going on the offensive.
Some more good (?) news may be on the way. Turkey's Parliament voted to allow the Turkish military to conduct operations in Iraq and Syria. I'm glad they are finally on board, but what was the catalyst for pushing Turkey into this fight?
It may be a little known Turkish enclave (technically an exclave, but who the hell cares) in Syria.
The enclave is the tomb of Suleyman Shah, who was the grandfather of Osman I, founder of the Ottoman Empire. In 1921 a treaty was signed between France and Turkey, the tomb and some surrounding land was allowed to remain Turkish territory and Turkey is allowed to raise the Turkish flag and have troops guarding the shrine. Turkish commanders have stated they will defend the enclave and come to the aid of the guards there should ISIS attack.
I read about this enclave a few months ago when Turkey was concerned about an ISIS threat to the shrine, but the story never gained much traction. However, wherever ISIS goes they tend to destroy shrines, tombs, and anything else of cultural value; and now ISIS is just a few miles to the north, in Kobani. Will we see a Turkish invasion of Syria in the coming weeks/months? My gut instinct says not...maybe some airstrikes, but no ground troops. Unless ISIS takes the shrine. Then all bets are off.
Edit: I originally stated that Suleyman Shah was the father of Osman I. He is actually the grandfather.
Showing posts with label Syria. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Syria. Show all posts
Saturday, October 4, 2014
Wednesday, July 23, 2014
Top 10 "Global Concerns" 2014 Edition
This year's Warhorse Global Concerns is coming a few days early because I'm leaving shortly to go on a quick vacation and I don't want to have to think about it while sitting in a hotel room. As mentioned in last year's Top 10 I compile this list based on what I've read and my own personal analysis...and by analysis I mean bias. This is what the list looked like last year:
10. Nigeria
9. Iran
8. Tunisia
7. Somalia
6. Mali
5. North Korea
4. Iraq
3. Egypt
2. Syria
1. Afghanistan/Pakistan
Loyal readers of this blog likely recall that my Top 10 doesn't change all that much from year to year. There are some fluctuations and some countries fall off or are added, but for the most part conflicts continue to simmer. For this year, Iran, Tunisia, and Mali fell off. I also combined Iraq and Syria because, well, duh. Iran was removed due to my belief that they are way too distracted with Syria/Iraq to really try anything silly in the near term, but we shall see. Tunisia and Mali also fell off because while I don't think those particular conflicts (Tunisia's being residual leftovers from Arab Spring and Mali's being the Tuareg/AQIM uprising) are over, I do believe they are contained...for the most part. Enough blabbering! Here's the list for 2014:
10. South Sudan
Conflict between the government and rebels forced various African countries to send military forces into South Sudan. A peace deal was signed in May, but I don't think peace will last.
9. North Korea
I'm dropping Best Korea from 5th to 9th but I just can't take them off the list entirely. There is just too much tension between North and South and I'm not convinced of Kim Jong-un's sanity. If I were China, I would attempt regime change.
8. Xinjiang, China
Speaking of China...something is afoot in the western region of Xinjiang. Is there a red line for the Muslim Uighur population and how long before they attempt a full on revolt?
7. Somalia
African nations contributing peacekeeping/counter insurgency forces to Somalia continue to find themselves stretched thin by other conflicts. Al Shabaab has taken advantage and brought the fight to Kenya on a few occasions.
6. Nigeria
Hashtag activism isn't going to stop Boko Haram. Especially when I suspect they may be winning.
5. Egypt
There's a war in the Sinai but nobody seems to care. Things aren't exactly peachy in the west either.
4. Libya
I haven't been paying much attention here. From what I can gather there are lots of militia groups claiming territory and fighting over neighborhoods in Tripoli and Benghazi. The government is pretty much ineffective. What happens when you only help with one half of regime change? The situation in Libya happens.
3. Ukraine
This potential WWIII flash point certainly came out of nowhere.
2. Afghanistan/Pakistan
The Taliban made a "fighting season" push in Helmand but were not all that successful thanks to the Afghan security forces. The country also managed to pull off presidential elections. A glimmer of hope?
1. Iraq/Syria
A clusterfuck. That is all.
Edit: I did not include Israel-Palestine/Gaza on this list because conflict between those two is essentially "same shit, different day".
10. Nigeria
9. Iran
8. Tunisia
7. Somalia
6. Mali
5. North Korea
4. Iraq
3. Egypt
2. Syria
1. Afghanistan/Pakistan
Loyal readers of this blog likely recall that my Top 10 doesn't change all that much from year to year. There are some fluctuations and some countries fall off or are added, but for the most part conflicts continue to simmer. For this year, Iran, Tunisia, and Mali fell off. I also combined Iraq and Syria because, well, duh. Iran was removed due to my belief that they are way too distracted with Syria/Iraq to really try anything silly in the near term, but we shall see. Tunisia and Mali also fell off because while I don't think those particular conflicts (Tunisia's being residual leftovers from Arab Spring and Mali's being the Tuareg/AQIM uprising) are over, I do believe they are contained...for the most part. Enough blabbering! Here's the list for 2014:
10. South Sudan
Conflict between the government and rebels forced various African countries to send military forces into South Sudan. A peace deal was signed in May, but I don't think peace will last.
9. North Korea
I'm dropping Best Korea from 5th to 9th but I just can't take them off the list entirely. There is just too much tension between North and South and I'm not convinced of Kim Jong-un's sanity. If I were China, I would attempt regime change.
8. Xinjiang, China
Speaking of China...something is afoot in the western region of Xinjiang. Is there a red line for the Muslim Uighur population and how long before they attempt a full on revolt?
7. Somalia
African nations contributing peacekeeping/counter insurgency forces to Somalia continue to find themselves stretched thin by other conflicts. Al Shabaab has taken advantage and brought the fight to Kenya on a few occasions.
6. Nigeria
Hashtag activism isn't going to stop Boko Haram. Especially when I suspect they may be winning.
5. Egypt
There's a war in the Sinai but nobody seems to care. Things aren't exactly peachy in the west either.
4. Libya
I haven't been paying much attention here. From what I can gather there are lots of militia groups claiming territory and fighting over neighborhoods in Tripoli and Benghazi. The government is pretty much ineffective. What happens when you only help with one half of regime change? The situation in Libya happens.
3. Ukraine
This potential WWIII flash point certainly came out of nowhere.
2. Afghanistan/Pakistan
The Taliban made a "fighting season" push in Helmand but were not all that successful thanks to the Afghan security forces. The country also managed to pull off presidential elections. A glimmer of hope?
1. Iraq/Syria
A clusterfuck. That is all.
Edit: I did not include Israel-Palestine/Gaza on this list because conflict between those two is essentially "same shit, different day".
Tuesday, July 8, 2014
Just Because You Announce Something, Doesn't Mean It's True
As I mentioned in my last post, ISIS/ISIL announced it has formed a caliphate in Iraq and Syria under the leadership of Abu Bakr al Baghdadi. They've also rebranded and changed their name (again!). The Islamic State of Iraq and the Sham/Syria/the Levant is now just The Islamic State (IS). Much easier to write out. My future carpal tunnel appreciates this.
Just for fun, let's list out the former names of this organization:
- Abu Musab al-Zarqawi forms al-Tawhid wal-Jihad in the 1990s and brings the organization into Iraq just prior to the US invasion in 2003.
- Zarqawi pledges allegiance to Osama Bin Laden and joins al Qaida in 2004. Al-Tawhid wal-Jihad becomes Al Qaida in Iraq.
- Zarqawi is killed in 2006. His successor, Abu Ayyub al-Masri, renames AQI to the Mujahadeen Shura Council.
- Short time later, MSC, is rebranded as the Islamic State of Iraq...although many cells still called themselves Al Qaida.
- Shit goes down in Syria and ISI joins the fun and names itself the Islamic State of Iraq and the Sham/Syria and/or the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant...depends on your translation.
- June 2014, the Caliphate is announced and now we just have the Islamic State.
But here's my question: how legitimate is the Islamic State and the announcement of a caliphate in the view of other Islamic groups and leaders in the region? Not legit at all. And those organizations ISIL was fighting with in Syria, they reject the Caliphate as well.
Essentially, al Baghdadi announcing the Caliphate has about as much authority as me declaring the Grand Duchy of Central Virginia. I demand you call me duke or lord or something.
Duke Warhorse, Lord and Viceroy of the Grand Duchy of Central Virginia. I like it.
Just for fun, let's list out the former names of this organization:
- Abu Musab al-Zarqawi forms al-Tawhid wal-Jihad in the 1990s and brings the organization into Iraq just prior to the US invasion in 2003.
- Zarqawi pledges allegiance to Osama Bin Laden and joins al Qaida in 2004. Al-Tawhid wal-Jihad becomes Al Qaida in Iraq.
- Zarqawi is killed in 2006. His successor, Abu Ayyub al-Masri, renames AQI to the Mujahadeen Shura Council.
- Short time later, MSC, is rebranded as the Islamic State of Iraq...although many cells still called themselves Al Qaida.
- Shit goes down in Syria and ISI joins the fun and names itself the Islamic State of Iraq and the Sham/Syria and/or the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant...depends on your translation.
- June 2014, the Caliphate is announced and now we just have the Islamic State.
But here's my question: how legitimate is the Islamic State and the announcement of a caliphate in the view of other Islamic groups and leaders in the region? Not legit at all. And those organizations ISIL was fighting with in Syria, they reject the Caliphate as well.
Essentially, al Baghdadi announcing the Caliphate has about as much authority as me declaring the Grand Duchy of Central Virginia. I demand you call me duke or lord or something.
Duke Warhorse, Lord and Viceroy of the Grand Duchy of Central Virginia. I like it.
Saturday, December 28, 2013
Lebanon, Syria, Iraq...It's All One Big Mess
I've written multiple times about how the conflict/civil war in Syria has been spilling over into Iraq. But what about Lebanon? Things aren't going so swimmingly there either.
Now I fully realize that Lebanon hasn't exactly been the most stable of countries. Hezbollah, Israeli invasions, sectarian violence, etc, etc. I'm also not very knowledgeable on Lebanon and all its quirks. But when bombs kill anti-Asad leaders it becomes fairly clear that Syria is spilling over into Lebanon.
The leader who was killed was a former minister in the Lebanese government and had opposed Syrian President Asad as well as Hezbollah. Who is suspected to be behind the attack? Hezbollah.
Hezbollah also happens to be supported by Iran, who also supports the Asad regime. A targeted hit ordered by Tehran or a target chosen by Hezbollah themselves?
Part of me, the part of me that deployed multiple times with the US Army and knows how exhausted the organization is, wants to steer clear of any involvement with the Syria conflict and let the various players sort it out for themselves. However, the other part of me, the part that doesn't want an Islamic fundamentalist government in Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon...and the part that relies on the military industrial complex for a job...thinks it may be time to consider some kind of US/NATO involvement.
This problem is not going away any time in the near future and it's only going to get worse.
Now I fully realize that Lebanon hasn't exactly been the most stable of countries. Hezbollah, Israeli invasions, sectarian violence, etc, etc. I'm also not very knowledgeable on Lebanon and all its quirks. But when bombs kill anti-Asad leaders it becomes fairly clear that Syria is spilling over into Lebanon.
The leader who was killed was a former minister in the Lebanese government and had opposed Syrian President Asad as well as Hezbollah. Who is suspected to be behind the attack? Hezbollah.
Hezbollah also happens to be supported by Iran, who also supports the Asad regime. A targeted hit ordered by Tehran or a target chosen by Hezbollah themselves?
Part of me, the part of me that deployed multiple times with the US Army and knows how exhausted the organization is, wants to steer clear of any involvement with the Syria conflict and let the various players sort it out for themselves. However, the other part of me, the part that doesn't want an Islamic fundamentalist government in Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon...and the part that relies on the military industrial complex for a job...thinks it may be time to consider some kind of US/NATO involvement.
This problem is not going away any time in the near future and it's only going to get worse.
Friday, December 13, 2013
Do I Get To Go Back Soon?
Take a look below at this map of Iraq that I blatantly stole borrowed from Reuters through Business Insider. It shows the areas that Al Qaeda in Iraq/Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant either control or have a presence:
Yeah, I purposely made this HUUUUUUGE
Iraq didn't want US soldiers occupying their country anymore, fair enough. But then Iraq pulled its own military out of population centers and shifted from counter insurgency tactics to counter terrorism in an attempt to return to some sort of normalcy.
This has backfired on Iraq. The decrease in security forces gave insurgents some breathing space that enabled them to reconstitute and increase the number of attacks conducted. Then Syria fell apart.
The territory that AQI has presence is primarily in Sunni areas that border Syria. Look at all that war spill-over. Oh, and look at that northwest to southeast line of control that is marked "Hamrin Mountains". Where does that culminate? Could that possibly be Lake Hamrin and 1-14 Cav's old stomping grounds? Why indeed it is! Damn Kurwi tribe. Apparently the As Sadiyah, Jalula, Qara Tapa triangle is still causing trouble.
But what's up with the area south of Baghdad? As far as I know that's primarily Shia (the map also confirms this). What has led to AQI to control chunks of Shia dominated land?
How long before Iraq begs the US to send combat troops back into the country? Will the US agree? Will our allies follow? How long does the world sit and watch the chaos in Syria spread?
Sunday, July 28, 2013
Top 10 "Global Concerns" 2013 Edition
It's that time of the year again (why I originally started this in late July I will never remember) for Warhorse Intel's Top 10 "Global Concerns". I compile this list based on the reading I do throughout the year and is entirely my own biased assessment. 2012's list is here. Here's what it looked like:
10. Greece
9. Iran
8. Mexico
7. Kurd/Arab line Iraq
6. Somalia
5. North Korea
4. Yemen
3. Mali
2. Syria
1. Afghanistan/Pakistan
Once again the list between this year and last year are very similar. I'm not going to go in depth as much with each of these or provide links to back up my statements because 1) I don't have a whole lot of time and 2) I'm feeling especially lazy and 3) I'm in Afghanistan, what do you want from me? You're lucky you get a list at all. Anyway, as for the changes...Greece fell off because I think their economic issues are not going to lead to much violence beyond rioting. Mexico also came off as it appears from my little corner of the world that the narco gangs may be losing influence and power, but we'll see. Yemen was also dropped because Al Qaida In the Arabic Peninsula (AQAP) does not appear to be gaining strength and that conflict may be more tribal than anything else and is unlikely to spread. Now, on to the 2013 list!
10. Nigeria
Violence caused by Boko Haram led to a goverment crackdown in the north. That crackdown has led to more violence. My question is, when will Al Qaida officially jump into the fray and openly support Boko Haram?
9. Iran
Maintaining the spot at #9 only because at any time they could announce that they have a nuclear weapon which would lead to an Israeli airstrike which would then lead to...well...chaos. Will a new president lead to any significant change? This analyst says no.
8. Tunisia
Arab Spring woke up some demons in Tunisia. Extremists are becoming increasingly vocal and political assassinations are on the rise. Al Qaida In the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) is also likely looking for a spot to cause some havoc after being routed in Mali.
7. Somalia
Will Shabaab ever quit? I keep saying they are 6 months from being dead but they keep refusing to die.
6. Mali
The Tuareg tribe took over the north with the help of AQIM and friends. The Tauregs immediately regretted this decision and worked with the French to boot AQIM. Tentative peace has followed. I don't think it's going to last.
5. North Korea
For awhile there I thought war really was going to break out but then cooler heads prevailed. I keep them on this list because one day Best Korea may just actually do it and invade again.
4. Iraq
It's no longer just the Kurd/Arab line that's a problem. Violence has reached 2008 levels throughout the country. Everything Prime Minister Maliki does just creates more tension. At what point do the Sunnis revolt? At what point do the Kurds declare independence? At what point does the US return?
3. Egypt
Holy hell this place escalated quickly. Fallen regimes, Muslim Brotherhood in charge, coups, violence, and a growing extremist threat in the Sinai.
2. Syria
A clusterfuck.
1. Afghanistan/Pakistan
I've spent nearly 9 months here in Afghanistan and now have the hands on experience to repeat what I have said in my previous Top 10s...fuck this place.
10. Greece
9. Iran
8. Mexico
7. Kurd/Arab line Iraq
6. Somalia
5. North Korea
4. Yemen
3. Mali
2. Syria
1. Afghanistan/Pakistan
Once again the list between this year and last year are very similar. I'm not going to go in depth as much with each of these or provide links to back up my statements because 1) I don't have a whole lot of time and 2) I'm feeling especially lazy and 3) I'm in Afghanistan, what do you want from me? You're lucky you get a list at all. Anyway, as for the changes...Greece fell off because I think their economic issues are not going to lead to much violence beyond rioting. Mexico also came off as it appears from my little corner of the world that the narco gangs may be losing influence and power, but we'll see. Yemen was also dropped because Al Qaida In the Arabic Peninsula (AQAP) does not appear to be gaining strength and that conflict may be more tribal than anything else and is unlikely to spread. Now, on to the 2013 list!
10. Nigeria
Violence caused by Boko Haram led to a goverment crackdown in the north. That crackdown has led to more violence. My question is, when will Al Qaida officially jump into the fray and openly support Boko Haram?
9. Iran
Maintaining the spot at #9 only because at any time they could announce that they have a nuclear weapon which would lead to an Israeli airstrike which would then lead to...well...chaos. Will a new president lead to any significant change? This analyst says no.
8. Tunisia
Arab Spring woke up some demons in Tunisia. Extremists are becoming increasingly vocal and political assassinations are on the rise. Al Qaida In the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) is also likely looking for a spot to cause some havoc after being routed in Mali.
7. Somalia
Will Shabaab ever quit? I keep saying they are 6 months from being dead but they keep refusing to die.
6. Mali
The Tuareg tribe took over the north with the help of AQIM and friends. The Tauregs immediately regretted this decision and worked with the French to boot AQIM. Tentative peace has followed. I don't think it's going to last.
5. North Korea
For awhile there I thought war really was going to break out but then cooler heads prevailed. I keep them on this list because one day Best Korea may just actually do it and invade again.
4. Iraq
It's no longer just the Kurd/Arab line that's a problem. Violence has reached 2008 levels throughout the country. Everything Prime Minister Maliki does just creates more tension. At what point do the Sunnis revolt? At what point do the Kurds declare independence? At what point does the US return?
3. Egypt
Holy hell this place escalated quickly. Fallen regimes, Muslim Brotherhood in charge, coups, violence, and a growing extremist threat in the Sinai.
2. Syria
A clusterfuck.
1. Afghanistan/Pakistan
I've spent nearly 9 months here in Afghanistan and now have the hands on experience to repeat what I have said in my previous Top 10s...fuck this place.
Tuesday, March 5, 2013
Syria Bleeds Into Iraq
I was going to write about a situation that occurred that illustrates how ISAF is beating itself here in Afghanistan but an incident in Iraq (because I can't let go) caught my eye so you get my thoughts on that instead. Perhaps in a couple of days I'll get to writing more about the insanity that is ISAF.
Back in August I wrote about how it appeared that the civil war in Syria was spilling over into Turkey. Well now it appears that the civil war is spilling over another border, and what border is that?
Iraq of course. Fighting had occurred near one of the Syrian/Iraqi border crossings between Syrian troops and rebels. 48 wounded Syrian soldiers crossed into Iraq seeking medical treatment...or possibly trying to defect. While being transported to another border crossing to be transferred back to Syria they were ambushed by gunmen who had apparently crossed into Iraq from Syria. All of the (unarmed) Syrian soldiers as well as the 9 Iraqi guards escorting them were killed.
The article doesn't state who was responsible for the attack but I suspect it was the Al Nusra Front which is the most aggressive and successful rebel group operating in Syria. They are also affiliated with Al Qaida...there's a shocker. I also suspect that the Al Nusra Front is really just a re-branding of Al Qaida in Iraq.
I'm not naive enough to believe the insurgency in Iraq was completely done with but I did think that it was fading. With Al Nusra able to control territory in Syria as a base the group may be able to breathe some life into AQI and make life hell for Iraqis in the Anbar Province. And until the Kirkuk issue is completely settled I don't think Iraq will ever be able to completely remove the insurgent cancer.
And now I'm thinking about how the Arab Spring movement is linked to Mali/central Africa, Syria, Kirkuk, and the Iraqi insurgency. Hopefully someone writes a good historical narrative of it all in the future.
Back in August I wrote about how it appeared that the civil war in Syria was spilling over into Turkey. Well now it appears that the civil war is spilling over another border, and what border is that?
Iraq of course. Fighting had occurred near one of the Syrian/Iraqi border crossings between Syrian troops and rebels. 48 wounded Syrian soldiers crossed into Iraq seeking medical treatment...or possibly trying to defect. While being transported to another border crossing to be transferred back to Syria they were ambushed by gunmen who had apparently crossed into Iraq from Syria. All of the (unarmed) Syrian soldiers as well as the 9 Iraqi guards escorting them were killed.
The article doesn't state who was responsible for the attack but I suspect it was the Al Nusra Front which is the most aggressive and successful rebel group operating in Syria. They are also affiliated with Al Qaida...there's a shocker. I also suspect that the Al Nusra Front is really just a re-branding of Al Qaida in Iraq.
I'm not naive enough to believe the insurgency in Iraq was completely done with but I did think that it was fading. With Al Nusra able to control territory in Syria as a base the group may be able to breathe some life into AQI and make life hell for Iraqis in the Anbar Province. And until the Kirkuk issue is completely settled I don't think Iraq will ever be able to completely remove the insurgent cancer.
And now I'm thinking about how the Arab Spring movement is linked to Mali/central Africa, Syria, Kirkuk, and the Iraqi insurgency. Hopefully someone writes a good historical narrative of it all in the future.
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