UPDATE: ISIS Takes The North

Holy hell. I turn my back for a couple of days and Iraq's security forces completely break down. Six days ago the Islamic State of Iraq and the Sham (yeah, you know the acronym by now) began an assault on Mosul, Iraq's second largest city. Yesterday, the city fell after security forces fled, leaving not only the city for the insurgents, but massive amounts of weapons and ammunition.

Iraqi security forces have already been stretched thin dealing with ISIS in the Anbar Province. ISIS has taken over Fallujah, several towns, and nearly captured Ramadi as well. ISIS forces have apparently been operating in Abu Ghraib, just west of Baghdad.

But it gets worse, today ISIS fighters captured Tikrit, the capital of Salahaddin Province as well as the town of Bayji...which is the location of a massive oil refinery. On top of all that, ISIS is moving in on towns in the Kirkuk Province.

I suspect Samarra, a short drive south of Tikrit, will fall either tomorrow or the next day. From there ISIS can take Balad and the large airbase outside of that city. After that is the sizable military base Taji. Baghdad is a stones throw from there.

Prime Minister Maliki will likely shift forces from Anbar to prevent further ISIS movement south, but that will just allow an emboldened ISIS to move on Ramadi and the Sunni towns south of Baghdad. I give it three weeks before Baghdad is virtually surrounded...assuming no miracles occur.

But a miracle may occur...in the form of the Kurds. The Kurds will defend their territory tenaciously and any perception that that territory is under threat will bring Peshmerga reinforcements. Kirkuk is a disputed city and if ISIS attempts to take it the Kurds will most likely move in to prevent that from occuring. The whole situation is a win-win for the Kurds because with the Iraqi military collapsing, the Maliki government is likely going to ask for Kurdish assistance...and the Kurds will likely gain Kirkuk for helping defeat ISIS.

Hmm, I wonder if this was the Kurds' plan all along?

UPDATE: Kurdish Peshmerga forces have taken Kirkuk. ISIS/ISIL is threatening Samarra and the extremely holy Shia shrine there.

UPDATE 2: My old stomping grounds of Jalula and As Sadiya have fallen to ISIS/ISIL. Insurgents are now likely sleeping in my old room on the former FOB COBRA. This irks me.

Syria Bleeds Into Iraq

I was going to write about a situation that occurred that illustrates how ISAF is beating itself here in Afghanistan but an incident in Iraq (because I can't let go) caught my eye so you get my thoughts on that instead. Perhaps in a couple of days I'll get to writing more about the insanity that is ISAF.

Back in August I wrote about how it appeared that the civil war in Syria was spilling over into Turkey. Well now it appears that the civil war is spilling over another border, and what border is that?

Iraq of course. Fighting had occurred near one of the Syrian/Iraqi border crossings between Syrian troops and rebels. 48 wounded Syrian soldiers crossed into Iraq seeking medical treatment...or possibly trying to defect. While being transported to another border crossing to be transferred back to Syria they were ambushed by gunmen who had apparently crossed into Iraq from Syria. All of the (unarmed) Syrian soldiers as well as the 9 Iraqi guards escorting them were killed.

The article doesn't state who was responsible for the attack but I suspect it was the Al Nusra Front which is the most aggressive and successful rebel group operating in Syria. They are also affiliated with Al Qaida...there's a shocker. I also suspect that the Al Nusra Front is really just a re-branding of Al Qaida in Iraq.

I'm not naive enough to believe the insurgency in Iraq was completely done with but I did think that it was fading. With Al Nusra able to control territory in Syria as a base the group may be able to breathe some life into AQI and make life hell for Iraqis in the Anbar Province. And until the Kirkuk issue is completely settled I don't think Iraq will ever be able to completely remove the insurgent cancer.

And now I'm thinking about how the Arab Spring movement is linked to Mali/central Africa, Syria, Kirkuk, and the Iraqi insurgency. Hopefully someone writes a good historical narrative of it all in the future.