Well I certainly didn't see Nigeria's Boko Haram declaring allegiance with The Islamic State©, although I probably should have seen it as a possibility. Overall this doesn't exactly change anything but the announcement, which apparently is legit, does show a shifting in power from the global jihadist dominance of Al Qaeda to the upstart ISIS/ISIL/IS. Due to my lack of knowledge in the nuances of African and Nigerian Islamic insurgency I would have assumed Boko Haram would have aligned itself with AQIM over ISIS, but apparently an offshoot of Boko Haram, Ansaru, has already done that. Boko Haram's brutal tactics are more similar to ISIS' than AQ's anyway.
ISIS is really building up that street cred.
To add to the fun, ISIS has apparently gotten a foothold in Afghanistan. An Afghan army general is claiming there are ISIS elements recruiting in some of the southern provinces, which is very interesting since the southern Afghan provinces are the Taliban's home turf. Could this be a sign that the Afghan population is turning against the Taliban and that the Taliban don't have the control that they claim? Possibly, but it concerns me that instead of fighting the Taliban with the government, or at least not supporting the Taliban, there are individuals who choose to join ISIS instead. At least the Taliban was the legit (sort of and not really in any internationally acknowledged way) government of Afghanistan at one point.
Where will ISIS pop up next?
Showing posts with label Nigeria. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Nigeria. Show all posts
Sunday, March 8, 2015
Thursday, January 15, 2015
UPDATE: Nigeria, ISIS, and AQAP
Ugh, Nigeria continues to be a hot mess thanks to Boko Haram and that group's apparent desire to be blood thirsty assholes, although I'm quite convinced the government of Nigeria has its share of the blame for the chaos.
On Saturday a suicide bomber struck a market killing 16 and wounding more than 20. The bomber? A 10 year old girl. The explosives were likely detonated remotely. It would not surprise me at all if this girl was one of the 300 or so school girls kidnapped by Boko Haram last April.
Boko Haram is also continuing offensive operations and recently attacked the town of Baga near the border with Chad. Amnesty International claims 2000 people were killed in that attack. However, the Nigerian government states the death toll was more like 150. I don't know who to believe on this one. Amnesty International is likely getting their reports second hand, which may be exaggerated by locals, but Nigerian authorities are probably trying to downplay the death toll to prevent the government from looking incompetent and keep panic from spreading. Like I said, a hot mess.
Moving on to Islamic State news...because they are such fun group of lovable scamps. Oh look, the Da'ish-bags are using children to conduct their executions. The Islamic State really is doing every thing they can to get as many people as possible to hate them. I've been appalled by AQI/ISI/ISIS tactics since 2005 so nothing they do really comes as a shock to me anymore.
Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula has claimed responsibility for the Paris attack. I wonder what took them so long. I also wonder if France is going to get involved with the civil war in Yemen in order to defeat AQAP. The government of Yemen along with their Houthi puppet masters probably wouldn't allow that, but if France is angry enough that may not matter.
UPDATE: Amnesty International has issued (provided may be a better term?) satellite imagery of the area. Their death toll numbers are likely more correct than government of Nigeria's numbers.
So much ugly news. Here's a puppy to cheer everyone up:
On Saturday a suicide bomber struck a market killing 16 and wounding more than 20. The bomber? A 10 year old girl. The explosives were likely detonated remotely. It would not surprise me at all if this girl was one of the 300 or so school girls kidnapped by Boko Haram last April.
Boko Haram is also continuing offensive operations and recently attacked the town of Baga near the border with Chad. Amnesty International claims 2000 people were killed in that attack. However, the Nigerian government states the death toll was more like 150. I don't know who to believe on this one. Amnesty International is likely getting their reports second hand, which may be exaggerated by locals, but Nigerian authorities are probably trying to downplay the death toll to prevent the government from looking incompetent and keep panic from spreading. Like I said, a hot mess.
Moving on to Islamic State news...because they are such fun group of lovable scamps. Oh look, the Da'ish-bags are using children to conduct their executions. The Islamic State really is doing every thing they can to get as many people as possible to hate them. I've been appalled by AQI/ISI/ISIS tactics since 2005 so nothing they do really comes as a shock to me anymore.
Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula has claimed responsibility for the Paris attack. I wonder what took them so long. I also wonder if France is going to get involved with the civil war in Yemen in order to defeat AQAP. The government of Yemen along with their Houthi puppet masters probably wouldn't allow that, but if France is angry enough that may not matter.
UPDATE: Amnesty International has issued (provided may be a better term?) satellite imagery of the area. Their death toll numbers are likely more correct than government of Nigeria's numbers.
So much ugly news. Here's a puppy to cheer everyone up:
He probably poops on the carpet though...
Tuesday, November 4, 2014
A Few Links To Keep You Occupied
I've been feeling rather lazy lately so instead of a full post I'm just going to link to some interesting articles I've come across over the past several days.
The first is a fun little interview with John Nagl. For those not in the know, Dr Nagl is a former U.S. Army officer and one of the leaders in counter-insurgency movement that swept the U.S. military around 2006. The Army is currently moving away from counter-insurgency to focus more on conventional force on force tactics which I find a bit frightening. After the Vietnam War, the U.S. believed the conflict was an anomaly and refocused on tank vs tank warfare. The U.S. moving back to that "big armored formation" mentality now that Afghanistan is winding down and Iraq is several years over (or is it?). Lessons that were learned through blood, sweat, and treasure are going to have to be relearned sooner rather than later...and it will be hell to pay.
Some brighter news, Iraq is getting rid of fake bomb detectors that the Maliki government stubbornly refused to give up. Even with no moving parts; even after being told time and time again they don't work; even after the man that sold them was arrested in the UK; the Iraqi government kept ADE-651s on checkpoints in and around Baghdad. How many innocent Iraqis died because of this hubris?
Remember back in September when it was reported that the government of Nigeria was in talks with Boko Haram to release those kidnapped school girls? Do you also happen to remember that I wrote that I had assumed the girls had already been sold into slavery? I hate to say this, but it appears I may have been right. Boko Haram is denying a cease-fire with the government and is also claiming the school girls have already been "married off".
I'll be over here in the corner attempting to not be so cynical.
The first is a fun little interview with John Nagl. For those not in the know, Dr Nagl is a former U.S. Army officer and one of the leaders in counter-insurgency movement that swept the U.S. military around 2006. The Army is currently moving away from counter-insurgency to focus more on conventional force on force tactics which I find a bit frightening. After the Vietnam War, the U.S. believed the conflict was an anomaly and refocused on tank vs tank warfare. The U.S. moving back to that "big armored formation" mentality now that Afghanistan is winding down and Iraq is several years over (or is it?). Lessons that were learned through blood, sweat, and treasure are going to have to be relearned sooner rather than later...and it will be hell to pay.
Some brighter news, Iraq is getting rid of fake bomb detectors that the Maliki government stubbornly refused to give up. Even with no moving parts; even after being told time and time again they don't work; even after the man that sold them was arrested in the UK; the Iraqi government kept ADE-651s on checkpoints in and around Baghdad. How many innocent Iraqis died because of this hubris?
Remember back in September when it was reported that the government of Nigeria was in talks with Boko Haram to release those kidnapped school girls? Do you also happen to remember that I wrote that I had assumed the girls had already been sold into slavery? I hate to say this, but it appears I may have been right. Boko Haram is denying a cease-fire with the government and is also claiming the school girls have already been "married off".
I'll be over here in the corner attempting to not be so cynical.
Wednesday, September 24, 2014
Update on the Update: Boko Haram Update
Last time I mentioned Nigeria and Boko Haram back in May violence was increasing, the US was getting involved mildly, and the 300 school girls Boko Haram had kidnapped were no closer to being released. Nigeria even made my "Warhorse Top 10".
So how is Nigeria these days? Better? Worse?
I can't say better, but there are reports that Boko Haram's leader, Abubakar Shekau, was killed in a battle near, or possibly in, Cameroon. Shekau was a bit of an asshole, and seemed to be effective, so his removal may actually do some good and bring Boko Haram to the negotiating table.
Oh, look at that. The government of Nigeria and the Red Cross are in talks with Boko Haram about swapping the kidnapped girls for captured Boko Haram leaders. I'm a bit shocked, I figured those girls had been sold into slavery and/or something worse awhile ago.
I should try being more optimistic.
Update: The Nigerian military is now claiming they killed the impersonator of Abubakar Shekau and not Shekau himself. What the hell is going on over there?
So how is Nigeria these days? Better? Worse?
I can't say better, but there are reports that Boko Haram's leader, Abubakar Shekau, was killed in a battle near, or possibly in, Cameroon. Shekau was a bit of an asshole, and seemed to be effective, so his removal may actually do some good and bring Boko Haram to the negotiating table.
Oh, look at that. The government of Nigeria and the Red Cross are in talks with Boko Haram about swapping the kidnapped girls for captured Boko Haram leaders. I'm a bit shocked, I figured those girls had been sold into slavery and/or something worse awhile ago.
I should try being more optimistic.
Update: The Nigerian military is now claiming they killed the impersonator of Abubakar Shekau and not Shekau himself. What the hell is going on over there?
Wednesday, May 7, 2014
Boko...Have Trouble Giving A Damn
If you have been watching, reading, or listening to the news lately then you are likely aware of increased violence in Nigeria due to the terrorist group Boko Haram as well as the kidnapping of nearly 300 school girls by that organization. I haven't written much about Nigeria or Boko Haram, although the country made my "Top 10" List last year (spoiler: Nigeria will probably make it again this year).
Boko Haram, aka The Congregation of the People of Tradition for Proselytism and Jihad (or in Arabic, Jamat Ahl as-Sunnah lid-da'wa wal-Jihad), was founded in 2002 and is an Islamic group found primarily in northern Nigeria as well as parts of Cameroon and Niger. They seek an Islamic state ruled by Sharia law. Boko Haram's tactics to gain this state are through terrorism and guerilla warfare...because fuck peaceful means (bias alert).
So yeah, another part of the world that I'll keep a closer eye on. One never knows when the US will decide to get involved. But it's not like Nigeria has oil or anything...oh wait, they do. However, the kidnapping of some school girls won't likely turn the eyes of the US government which is working to cut the budget of the military to save some cash. Events would have to seriously escalate for that to happen.
Look at that. We are getting involved...a little bit.
300 hundred more dead? This is going downhill fast.
But why the sudden interest in Nigeria? Sure, nearly 300 school girls is a lot but school girls get attacked in Afghanistan all the time. Schools are burned to the ground. Villagers' fingers cut off for voting. Etc, etc, etc. When did Americans stop caring about that?
How about over 300 children kidnapped by the Kurdistan Workers Pary (PKK) in Turkey? Anybody care about that? Bueller? Bueller?
No? Funny...
Boko Haram, aka The Congregation of the People of Tradition for Proselytism and Jihad (or in Arabic, Jamat Ahl as-Sunnah lid-da'wa wal-Jihad), was founded in 2002 and is an Islamic group found primarily in northern Nigeria as well as parts of Cameroon and Niger. They seek an Islamic state ruled by Sharia law. Boko Haram's tactics to gain this state are through terrorism and guerilla warfare...because fuck peaceful means (bias alert).
So yeah, another part of the world that I'll keep a closer eye on. One never knows when the US will decide to get involved. But it's not like Nigeria has oil or anything...oh wait, they do. However, the kidnapping of some school girls won't likely turn the eyes of the US government which is working to cut the budget of the military to save some cash. Events would have to seriously escalate for that to happen.
Look at that. We are getting involved...a little bit.
300 hundred more dead? This is going downhill fast.
But why the sudden interest in Nigeria? Sure, nearly 300 school girls is a lot but school girls get attacked in Afghanistan all the time. Schools are burned to the ground. Villagers' fingers cut off for voting. Etc, etc, etc. When did Americans stop caring about that?
How about over 300 children kidnapped by the Kurdistan Workers Pary (PKK) in Turkey? Anybody care about that? Bueller? Bueller?
No? Funny...
Sunday, July 28, 2013
Top 10 "Global Concerns" 2013 Edition
It's that time of the year again (why I originally started this in late July I will never remember) for Warhorse Intel's Top 10 "Global Concerns". I compile this list based on the reading I do throughout the year and is entirely my own biased assessment. 2012's list is here. Here's what it looked like:
10. Greece
9. Iran
8. Mexico
7. Kurd/Arab line Iraq
6. Somalia
5. North Korea
4. Yemen
3. Mali
2. Syria
1. Afghanistan/Pakistan
Once again the list between this year and last year are very similar. I'm not going to go in depth as much with each of these or provide links to back up my statements because 1) I don't have a whole lot of time and 2) I'm feeling especially lazy and 3) I'm in Afghanistan, what do you want from me? You're lucky you get a list at all. Anyway, as for the changes...Greece fell off because I think their economic issues are not going to lead to much violence beyond rioting. Mexico also came off as it appears from my little corner of the world that the narco gangs may be losing influence and power, but we'll see. Yemen was also dropped because Al Qaida In the Arabic Peninsula (AQAP) does not appear to be gaining strength and that conflict may be more tribal than anything else and is unlikely to spread. Now, on to the 2013 list!
10. Nigeria
Violence caused by Boko Haram led to a goverment crackdown in the north. That crackdown has led to more violence. My question is, when will Al Qaida officially jump into the fray and openly support Boko Haram?
9. Iran
Maintaining the spot at #9 only because at any time they could announce that they have a nuclear weapon which would lead to an Israeli airstrike which would then lead to...well...chaos. Will a new president lead to any significant change? This analyst says no.
8. Tunisia
Arab Spring woke up some demons in Tunisia. Extremists are becoming increasingly vocal and political assassinations are on the rise. Al Qaida In the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) is also likely looking for a spot to cause some havoc after being routed in Mali.
7. Somalia
Will Shabaab ever quit? I keep saying they are 6 months from being dead but they keep refusing to die.
6. Mali
The Tuareg tribe took over the north with the help of AQIM and friends. The Tauregs immediately regretted this decision and worked with the French to boot AQIM. Tentative peace has followed. I don't think it's going to last.
5. North Korea
For awhile there I thought war really was going to break out but then cooler heads prevailed. I keep them on this list because one day Best Korea may just actually do it and invade again.
4. Iraq
It's no longer just the Kurd/Arab line that's a problem. Violence has reached 2008 levels throughout the country. Everything Prime Minister Maliki does just creates more tension. At what point do the Sunnis revolt? At what point do the Kurds declare independence? At what point does the US return?
3. Egypt
Holy hell this place escalated quickly. Fallen regimes, Muslim Brotherhood in charge, coups, violence, and a growing extremist threat in the Sinai.
2. Syria
A clusterfuck.
1. Afghanistan/Pakistan
I've spent nearly 9 months here in Afghanistan and now have the hands on experience to repeat what I have said in my previous Top 10s...fuck this place.
10. Greece
9. Iran
8. Mexico
7. Kurd/Arab line Iraq
6. Somalia
5. North Korea
4. Yemen
3. Mali
2. Syria
1. Afghanistan/Pakistan
Once again the list between this year and last year are very similar. I'm not going to go in depth as much with each of these or provide links to back up my statements because 1) I don't have a whole lot of time and 2) I'm feeling especially lazy and 3) I'm in Afghanistan, what do you want from me? You're lucky you get a list at all. Anyway, as for the changes...Greece fell off because I think their economic issues are not going to lead to much violence beyond rioting. Mexico also came off as it appears from my little corner of the world that the narco gangs may be losing influence and power, but we'll see. Yemen was also dropped because Al Qaida In the Arabic Peninsula (AQAP) does not appear to be gaining strength and that conflict may be more tribal than anything else and is unlikely to spread. Now, on to the 2013 list!
10. Nigeria
Violence caused by Boko Haram led to a goverment crackdown in the north. That crackdown has led to more violence. My question is, when will Al Qaida officially jump into the fray and openly support Boko Haram?
9. Iran
Maintaining the spot at #9 only because at any time they could announce that they have a nuclear weapon which would lead to an Israeli airstrike which would then lead to...well...chaos. Will a new president lead to any significant change? This analyst says no.
8. Tunisia
Arab Spring woke up some demons in Tunisia. Extremists are becoming increasingly vocal and political assassinations are on the rise. Al Qaida In the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) is also likely looking for a spot to cause some havoc after being routed in Mali.
7. Somalia
Will Shabaab ever quit? I keep saying they are 6 months from being dead but they keep refusing to die.
6. Mali
The Tuareg tribe took over the north with the help of AQIM and friends. The Tauregs immediately regretted this decision and worked with the French to boot AQIM. Tentative peace has followed. I don't think it's going to last.
5. North Korea
For awhile there I thought war really was going to break out but then cooler heads prevailed. I keep them on this list because one day Best Korea may just actually do it and invade again.
4. Iraq
It's no longer just the Kurd/Arab line that's a problem. Violence has reached 2008 levels throughout the country. Everything Prime Minister Maliki does just creates more tension. At what point do the Sunnis revolt? At what point do the Kurds declare independence? At what point does the US return?
3. Egypt
Holy hell this place escalated quickly. Fallen regimes, Muslim Brotherhood in charge, coups, violence, and a growing extremist threat in the Sinai.
2. Syria
A clusterfuck.
1. Afghanistan/Pakistan
I've spent nearly 9 months here in Afghanistan and now have the hands on experience to repeat what I have said in my previous Top 10s...fuck this place.
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