UPDATE: ISIS Takes The North

Holy hell. I turn my back for a couple of days and Iraq's security forces completely break down. Six days ago the Islamic State of Iraq and the Sham (yeah, you know the acronym by now) began an assault on Mosul, Iraq's second largest city. Yesterday, the city fell after security forces fled, leaving not only the city for the insurgents, but massive amounts of weapons and ammunition.

Iraqi security forces have already been stretched thin dealing with ISIS in the Anbar Province. ISIS has taken over Fallujah, several towns, and nearly captured Ramadi as well. ISIS forces have apparently been operating in Abu Ghraib, just west of Baghdad.

But it gets worse, today ISIS fighters captured Tikrit, the capital of Salahaddin Province as well as the town of Bayji...which is the location of a massive oil refinery. On top of all that, ISIS is moving in on towns in the Kirkuk Province.

I suspect Samarra, a short drive south of Tikrit, will fall either tomorrow or the next day. From there ISIS can take Balad and the large airbase outside of that city. After that is the sizable military base Taji. Baghdad is a stones throw from there.

Prime Minister Maliki will likely shift forces from Anbar to prevent further ISIS movement south, but that will just allow an emboldened ISIS to move on Ramadi and the Sunni towns south of Baghdad. I give it three weeks before Baghdad is virtually surrounded...assuming no miracles occur.

But a miracle may occur...in the form of the Kurds. The Kurds will defend their territory tenaciously and any perception that that territory is under threat will bring Peshmerga reinforcements. Kirkuk is a disputed city and if ISIS attempts to take it the Kurds will most likely move in to prevent that from occuring. The whole situation is a win-win for the Kurds because with the Iraqi military collapsing, the Maliki government is likely going to ask for Kurdish assistance...and the Kurds will likely gain Kirkuk for helping defeat ISIS.

Hmm, I wonder if this was the Kurds' plan all along?

UPDATE: Kurdish Peshmerga forces have taken Kirkuk. ISIS/ISIL is threatening Samarra and the extremely holy Shia shrine there.

UPDATE 2: My old stomping grounds of Jalula and As Sadiya have fallen to ISIS/ISIL. Insurgents are now likely sleeping in my old room on the former FOB COBRA. This irks me.