UPDATE 2: My Probably Wrong Boston Marathon Attack Analysis

I've waited over a day to comment on the attack in Boston because I didn't want to jump to any sudden conclusions seeing how I've been so blatantly wrong in the past when it comes to terrorist attacks.

Having said that, my analysis is the attack was most likely domestic terrorism. The analysts here at the IJC that I've discussed the attack with also agree. From my perspective there's nothing for Al Qaida or any other major terrorist group to gain from conducting this attack. Yes, it was high profile, but it wasn't exactly set up to cause a lot of casualties. Al Qaida uses vehicles for their mass casualty attacks and targeting a bunch of marathon runners doesn't strike me as a tactic they would use. The point of Al Qaida's attacks are to either draw the West into a war that bleeds money and resources or causes US allies to abandon the mission. The Boston attack was just too small to be Al Qaida.

Which to me means it was most likely 3 or 4 individuals who are either not affiliated or only loosely affiliated with an organization in the US. They knew what they were doing; multiple bombs, placed in bags near where large crowds would be, and detonated by timers (maybe). I'm going to make another assessment: these guys, or the guy who made the bombs, were likely combat vets from Iraq or Afghanistan.

There is a third option. The perpetrators are not officially linked to Al Qaida or any other international terrorist group, but conducted the attack in their name or were influenced by Al Qaida.

In the meantime, an envelope sent to a Senator from Mississippi tested positive for Ricin. Coincidence?

The Pakistani Taliban (or TTP as we refer to them) has denied responsibility. Probably because they are focused on Pakistan and not the US and who attacks marathon runners anyway?

UPDATE: The ricin guy has been arrested in Mississippi. Apparrently it's not related to Boston. That's some good news I suppose.

UPDATE 2: Ok, how correct or incorrect was I? I claimed domestic terrorists, 3-4 individuals, no affiliation/loose affiliation, combat vets. Turns out it was 2 guys (so far, it would not shock me to learn that others were involved); it was domestic in a sense that it wasn't international terrorism but the brothers were only resident aliens, not full fledged citizens...I'll claim I'm half right on that point; no affiliation to any group so far; not combat vets.

Not great, but I didn't have much to go on. I'll admit I didn't see the Chechnyan angle at all but then I doubt anyone did.

As a side note, the Canadian analyst we have here is thinking that Russia may have been involved with this attack in some way. His reasoning is that the US made a big stink about Russian human rights abuses in their two Chechnyan wars. If Chechnyans attacked the US, then Russia could make the claim that Chechnya is a larger problem than it actually is and Russia is justified in their heavy-handedness. Chew on that for a bit.