Lots of things happening lately in Iraq and by happenings I mean stuff blowing up. Insurgents in the country have gone from one major attack a month to at least one a week. Cue the news stories from suddenly interested reporters about the spreading violence, civil war, and deteriorating security forces...
Except Al Qaida...with some help from JRTN I suspect...has always increased their attacks in Iraq during the summer for the past 9 years. They haven't overthrown the Iraqi government yet, and they probably won't.
Joel Wing over at Musings On Iraq has an excellent analysis of the situation as usual. The last paragraph is what struck me the most, especially a couple of lines. Wing states that the current security situation is shaped by a couple of factors, the first was the withdrawal of US forces, and the second is that Iraqi security forces aren't conducting counterinsurgency operations anymore.
That bit about Iraq not conducting COIN worries me a bit. While AQI may be a shell of what they once were, by not conducting COIN the Iraqi government may be creating a situation which enables other groups to form and begin conducting operations.
And those organizations may become capable of overthrowing the government...
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