Back to happenings in Iraq

There are increasing signs of trouble for Iraq's future which I would like to address. I've tried to be cautiously optimistic about that county's future and the scenarios that are likely to play out once US forces pull out at the end of this year. However, somebody is going around and assassinating, or attempting to assassinate, government officials.

If you look at the list of attacks provided by the blog Musings on Iraq there does not seem to be a clear pattern of the attacks. Some of the folks targeted are minor officials, others are more important. I don't pretend to believe that they are all related; the governor of Ninewa for instance is a Baathist sympathizer, ultra Sunni nationalist, and overall jackass. He was likely targeted by the Kurds. Others are not so obvious.

My swag at it is that many of these attacks are being conducted by Jaysh Rijal al-Tariq Naqshabandi (JRTN) with a couple of them done by Jaysh al Mahdi (or the groups who splintered off from JAM), the Badr Corps, and Al Qaida in Iraq. JAM and Badr have never been hesitant to remove a political obstacle when they saw fit or just take out one of their own who isn't playing ball...kind of like the Mafia. AQI would assassinate folks just to sow chaos, seek revenge, or just attempt to stay relevant.

But most of my money is on JRTN whose Baathist goals have always been to kick start a coup or uprising after US forces leave and then re-establish a Baathist regime in the country. These assassination attempts, especially the ones in Baghdad, Salah al Din, Ninewa, and Diyala provinces, are likely JRTN attempting to "prep the battlefield" for some kind of push later in the year and then into 2012. Killing the director of the Accountability and Justice Commission (aka de-Baathification commission) would certainly be a good move for JRTN.

Worst case scenario for Iraq would for JRTN to only be partially successful. If they are able to kill enough government officials so that essential services and security forces are hampered then a general uprising is likely to occur...but by the Shia. The Shia are unlikely to accept a return of the Baathists and any move by JRTN or other Baathist organizations will likely cause JAM to re-emerge and flex their muscles again. AQI could then easily re-organize under the same banner of "protecting the Sunni" that they claimed in 2006-07 and once again the spiral of destruction will occur.

I do not think this will end well.