Monday, January 24, 2011

Just because the idea is crazy, doesn't mean it isn't correct

As the old saying goes, "the enemy of my enemy is my friend." I fully believe this statement when it comes to international policy and certain nations aligning with seemlingly odd partners. Take for example Iran and Venezuela, WWII's Germany and Japan, and Iran and Al Qaida.

Wait...what?

I believe I've blogged about Iran and Al Qaida before, I made a hint at a possible partnership towards the end of this post, and I may have written about it more extensively in other posts...but I'm too lazy to try to sift through and find it.

Anyway, I'll provide a brief and simplistic description of a possible Iran/Al Qaida partnership and why some people find it absurd:

Al Qaida is a primarily Sunni organization whose goal is removal of US forces from the Middle East, destruction of corrupt Arab governments, defeat of Shia dominated Arab governments, establishment of an Islamic Caliphate uniting the Islamic world, bankruptcy of the West, and finally, military defeat of the West.

Iran, being a Shia dominated country with a Shia dominated government, should feel threatened by Al Qaida and seek its elimination along with other jihadist organizations that threaten Iran; and to an extent they do. A little known fact was that Iran quietly approved of the US/NATO invasion of Afghanistan to eliminate the Taliban and remove the Al Qaida threat because both organizations were a destabalizing and threatening presence on Iran's eastern border.

However, with the invasion of Iraq there soon grew a very large and potentially threatening American military presence on both Iran's western and eastern border. I can only guess, but I assume that the Iranian leadership saw this development and determined that in order to prevent the US from invading they must keep us as busy as possible in both Afghanistan and Iraq, not too busy so that we would depart immediately and leave two very unstable countries bordering Iran, but but busy enough that we would be too distracted to even think about invading Iran as well.

There were some indications that Iran allowed Al Qaida members to pass through Iran to get from Afghanistan to Iraq, where they were welcomed by the terrorist organization Ansar al Islam. The Shia militia Jaysh al Mahdi leadership was given training in both Iran and Lebanon (training conducted by Hezbollah, which is backed by Iran). Weapons and the ugliest of all IEDs, the EFP, were smuggled from Iran into Iraq.

Most people assumed that Iran would not help Al Qaida and their Iraqi franchise, Al Qaida in Iraq, due to AQ's stated goal of removing Shia governments. However, the first two goals of AQ likely appeal to Iran; removal of US forces from the Middle East and destruction of corrupt Arab governments, many of whom, namely Saudi Arabia, are rivals of Iran. It seems reasonable to me that Iran would assist AQI, namely with limited safe haven and some weapons, especially after it became clear that AQI in no way could defeat the new Iraqi government, but could still hurt US forces in the country. As I mentioned in my post linked above, there were indications of Iranian involvement in three suicide attacks targeting 3-2 SBCT towards the end of the deployment.

Now former British Prime Minister Tony Blair has linked Iran and Al Qaida during a testimony to the Iraq Inquiry. These are essentially the same statements made by Senator John McCain back in 2008. Statements that he was mocked for. Perhaps those sitting in their comfy offices and who have never been to Iraq or Afghanistan do not have a full grasp of the situation or the realities on the ground.

Do not underestimate a nation that perceives itself as surrounded. They are likely to seek allies you would not expect.

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