Iraqi government formed...finally

Iraq finally has formed a government, it only took the political coalitions 9 months to do it.

As much as I am attempting to see this as a positive sign I believe the insurgency is going to get a bit of a boost. The Sunnis essentially got screwed in this election and I would love to write a detailed blog about it but my notes rarely covered national level politics and I've forgotten most of the players. I may attempt to piece together something from memory in the next couple of weeks.

So the Sunnis got screwed, Maliki was able to form a government with the backing of Muqtada al Sadr's anti-American coalition (honestly I believe he's really more anti-occupation than anti-American), and the insurgency is likely to gain from the large number of Sunnis who have grown weary of a Shia dominated government that continues to shut Sunni politicians out of the political process.

It all goes back to the Sunni Red Line and what is going to drive the Sunni population over it. The Sunni Red Line is that incident or series of incidents that finally drives a majority of the Sunni Arabs to turn their backs on the government, the local security forces, and US forces and fully support the Sunni insurgency (AQI, JRTN, 1920s RB, JAI, ISI, IAI).

Although, there were some analysts in Iraq who claimed that there is no Sunni Red Line. If the blood orgy of '06-'07 didn't drive them completely away, nothing will; Sunnis will just continue to be shoved around. I agree somewhat, Sunnis will take a lot as long as they have an outlet to vent their frustrations, such as the media and a few outspoken political leaders, but a population can only take so much abuse from its government.

This may warrant further discussion.