Monday, September 20, 2010

From the "Well This Can't Be Good" files...

Something horrible happened in Tajikistan on Sunday. Horrible for those involved anyway. 40 Tajik soldiers were killed in an ambush initiated by Islamist fighters in the Rasht Valley of Tajikistan. The soldiers were part of a 75-man convoy searching for members of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan who escaped from prison back in August.


I've included a map for those readers who have no idea where Tajikistan is. Oh frak, what's that country just to the south??!!



What does an entire platoon of soldiers being wiped out have to do with anything you ask? Well, first off, AN ENTIRE PLATOON WAS KILLED. 40 of a 75 man convoy was eliminated by some escaped prisoners. I'm no math wiz but I believe that's more than 50%. Also, apparently no enemy fighters were killed. This wasn't some pathetic band of rabblerousers, this must have been a well equiped and trained force. Tajikistan's Defence Ministry is claiming the group that conducted the attack includes foreign fighters from such lovely locales as Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Chechnya.

Alright, so what?


This is essentially an indicator that the war in Afghanistan is spilling over into adjacent countries, and not just the obvious one of Pakistan. Tajikistan isn't exactly stable and neither is its neighbor to the north, Kyrgyzstan. Since the organization causing all this trouble calls itself the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan it is highly likely they have some plans for Uzbekistan as well.


Seriously, so what?


It comes down to expansion of the conflict. While the Taliban and other Al Qaida linked organizations keep NATO busy in Afghanistan, other Al Qaida linked organizations, such as the Uzbek fellows, are free to expand the conflict and attempt to overthrow regimes in other areas. The former Soviet republics aren't that crucial...except all three are "allies" of the United States and provide airbases in which we resupply Afghanistan. They also provide havens in which organizations can recruit and train with no Western troops to stop them and only mediocre local security forces to harrass them, such as the case of our unlucky 75 Tajiks. I'm not going to go into why Pakistan is important other than to say it rhymns with "nuclear weapons".


In other news, France has deployed 100 anti-terrorism specialists to Niger after 7 people, including 5 French nationals were kidnapped in an uranium mining area by...wait for it...wait for it...an Al Qaida linked organization. By linked I mean they use Al Qaida in the damn name, Al Qaida in the Islamic Mahgreb. While we were wasting our time in Iraq dealing with the describtivly and accurately named Al Qaida in the Land of the Two Rivers (we just shortened it to Al Qaida in Iraq because we Americans are busy people and can't be bothered to write that all out, AQI looks better than AQLTR anyway) AQIM was been busy causing trouble in north central Africa. And while other Al Qaidas such as the above named AQI as well as Al Qaida in the Arabic Peninsula have been all but eliminated (Saudi Arabia and Yemen appear to have done something worthwhile for a change), AQIM has faced no opposition other than Mali. Mali? Seriously? Do I need to include another map?

Some of you may be saying "uh, the map doesn't help much."

In the last bit of news, things are still blowing up in Somalia. And by things I mean people. Shahab, another Al Qaida linked organization but one with more originality, has been ramping things up over the past year and keeping the African Union troops occupying the country (and by country I mean Mogidishu) more than a bit busy. Shahab has even started bringing the fight to Puntland, the self governing and somewhat stable and normal northern Somalia.

Why bring up all this misery? To highlight that while that we are currently drawing down troops in Iraq and will likely be out by the end of next year as well as potentially leaving Afghanistan in a couple of years, there are still plently of locations that may require military force to remove threats. In the next 2-3 years I can potentially see deployments to Mali, Mauritania, Niger, or Somalia. Can't forget those stans either. I do not believe I will ever have the luxury of seeing a peacetime Army.

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