Update 2: And there are the bombs. Of course that was easier to predict than determining when the Mariners will be mathmatically eliminated from the playoffs (a baseball joke where I'm not mocking the Cubs? Shocking!).
Update: And here we have the pressure by Maliki to have the Kurds turn over the Vice President.
Less than 72 hours after US forces leave Iraq Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki issued an arrest warrant for the Vice President, Tareq al-Hashemi, for suspected ties to assassinations and other attacks. Maliki has also asked the Iraqi Parliament to have a no confidence vote against Deputy Premier Saleh al-Mutlaq. Both Hashemi and Mutlaq are Sunnis who belong to the Iraqi National Movement political party led by Iyad Allawi, a major rival to Maliki. Hashemi has managed to flee to Kurdistan to avoid arrest but how long will it be before Maliki pressures the Kurds to turn him over?
Is this just standard Iraqi politics or a sign of something more sinister? After Maliki returned from his recent trip the United States, member of the National Movement began a series of political attacks and challenges against the Prime Minister. Mutlaq even called Maliki the worst dictator in Iraqi history, so the arrest orders were likely in response to these attacks.
However, this may be the beginning of a Shiite dictatorship where political disagreement by a rival party leads to accusations and arrests. It could also mean that Maliki and his political allies fear a coup attempt or a Sunni uprising. These political moves may be an attempt to mitigate that threat.
How long before AQI and JRTN take advantage of the situation? I give it a week tops before there is another major carbomb attack in Baghdad.
Tuesday, December 20, 2011
Thursday, December 15, 2011
Tell me how this really ends...
This ceremony I did not expect to see for a long, long time.US military involvment in the Iraq conflict is officially over. It is a bitter-sweet moment for me.
Like I've mentioned a few times in this blog, I spent a majority of my Army career either preparing for or deploying to Iraq. There are a lot of memories; some good, some bad.
The conflict is not over for Iraq, however. There are still remnants of AQI and ISI running around causing problems. Can't forget about JRTN either who most likely will start making news shortly. And what about the Kirkuk issue? That likely won't get answered without violence.
Like I've mentioned a few times in this blog, I spent a majority of my Army career either preparing for or deploying to Iraq. There are a lot of memories; some good, some bad.
The conflict is not over for Iraq, however. There are still remnants of AQI and ISI running around causing problems. Can't forget about JRTN either who most likely will start making news shortly. And what about the Kirkuk issue? That likely won't get answered without violence.
I would like to go back one day.
Monday, December 12, 2011
Did Iran really shoot down "The Beast"?
Look out! It's an albino stealth bomber!Did Iran shoot down and capture a US UAV in the beginning of December? The US government is admitting that a ultra-super-double-secret-probation drone, the RQ-170 Sentinel, aka "the Beast of Kandahar", did go down inside of Iran.
Having no knowledge or experience with this UAV and with access to nothing more than Google these days I can't with any certainty say that what Iran is saying is true or not. Iran did show off video of what appears to be the drone, but Iran has been known to fake military equipment in the past (fake missiles anyone?). The UAV in the video also looks remarkably undamaged for something that was either shot down and/or crashed.
The thing in the video also looks really fake, but then Hunter, Shadow, and Gray Eagle UAVs also appear kind of flimsy looking when up close.
Even if the Iranians captured part or whole of the UAV, some experts are saying it doesn't really matter anyway. Reverse engineering will be difficult at best and the RQ-170 may not even have the latest technology in terms of its sensor package.
The best part of all this? Iran is trying to play the victim. This amuses me since Iran gave Hezbollah UAVs to fly over Israel; had their own UAV shot down in Iraq in 2006; have been smuggling weapons, including EFP IEDs, to insurgent and militia groups in Iraq; AND (I find this the worst part) likely befundled the hell out of me for a several week period in 2009.
My guess? The RQ-170 crashed in Iran but the Iranians didn't get much from the pieces scattered about but are trotting out this mock up to make the US look bad. Although...the RQ-170 is Tweeting from Iran.
Having no knowledge or experience with this UAV and with access to nothing more than Google these days I can't with any certainty say that what Iran is saying is true or not. Iran did show off video of what appears to be the drone, but Iran has been known to fake military equipment in the past (fake missiles anyone?). The UAV in the video also looks remarkably undamaged for something that was either shot down and/or crashed.
The thing in the video also looks really fake, but then Hunter, Shadow, and Gray Eagle UAVs also appear kind of flimsy looking when up close.
Even if the Iranians captured part or whole of the UAV, some experts are saying it doesn't really matter anyway. Reverse engineering will be difficult at best and the RQ-170 may not even have the latest technology in terms of its sensor package.
The best part of all this? Iran is trying to play the victim. This amuses me since Iran gave Hezbollah UAVs to fly over Israel; had their own UAV shot down in Iraq in 2006; have been smuggling weapons, including EFP IEDs, to insurgent and militia groups in Iraq; AND (I find this the worst part) likely befundled the hell out of me for a several week period in 2009.
My guess? The RQ-170 crashed in Iran but the Iranians didn't get much from the pieces scattered about but are trotting out this mock up to make the US look bad. Although...the RQ-170 is Tweeting from Iran.
Tuesday, December 6, 2011
My Kabul attack analysis
I don't usually write anything about Afghanistan and the insurgency there mostly because I am completely in the dark about much of what is going on in that country. Having spent a majority of my Army career either preparing for, or deploying to, Iraq I had enough on my plate to study, train for, and worry over. Unless I was going to be sent to Afghanistan, I wasn't about study it indepth unless I could gleam some good lessons learned.
Having said that, the suicide attacks in Kabul and Mazar-e-Sharif today both interest and worry the hell out of me. Close to 60 people died in the attack in Kabul which occured when a suicide bomber detonated himself outside a Shia shrine. Another 4 people were killed in Mazar-e-Sharif when a bicycle bomb went off outside the city's main mosque.
The reason for my concern is that while terrorist/insurgent groups in Afghanistan have targeted civilians in the past, attacks in Kabul have primarily targeted US/ISAF/NATO forces and the government. Mullah Omar, the Taliban emir, has even stated recently that he is concerned over the the perception that the Taliban were killing civilians. A Taliban spokesman today condemned the bombings and claimed the group was not behind either of the attacks.
In February 2006, an attack at the Golden Mosque in Samarra, Iraq kicked off a wave of sectarian bloodshed throughout the country which led to civil war in Baghdad and caused US forces to lose virtually complete control in the capital.
Were the attacks against the Shia in Afghanistan today an attempt by an insurgent organization...most likely Al Qaida...to create a repeat of what occured in Iraq?
Shia Muslims only make up about 10-20% of Afghanistan's population as opposed to Iraq's 60-65% so an attempt at sectarian civil war is most likely not what is going on here. An expansion of the conflict by Al Qaida and other groups to attack not just NATO and the Afghan government but minority religious sects as well is more likely.
Expand the conflict, create more chaos, instill fear and lack of faith in the government. Those are the ways of the insurgent. Fear leads to anger, anger leads to hate, anger leads to more recruits and more water for the insurgent fish to swim in.
Having said that, the suicide attacks in Kabul and Mazar-e-Sharif today both interest and worry the hell out of me. Close to 60 people died in the attack in Kabul which occured when a suicide bomber detonated himself outside a Shia shrine. Another 4 people were killed in Mazar-e-Sharif when a bicycle bomb went off outside the city's main mosque.
The reason for my concern is that while terrorist/insurgent groups in Afghanistan have targeted civilians in the past, attacks in Kabul have primarily targeted US/ISAF/NATO forces and the government. Mullah Omar, the Taliban emir, has even stated recently that he is concerned over the the perception that the Taliban were killing civilians. A Taliban spokesman today condemned the bombings and claimed the group was not behind either of the attacks.
In February 2006, an attack at the Golden Mosque in Samarra, Iraq kicked off a wave of sectarian bloodshed throughout the country which led to civil war in Baghdad and caused US forces to lose virtually complete control in the capital.
Were the attacks against the Shia in Afghanistan today an attempt by an insurgent organization...most likely Al Qaida...to create a repeat of what occured in Iraq?
Shia Muslims only make up about 10-20% of Afghanistan's population as opposed to Iraq's 60-65% so an attempt at sectarian civil war is most likely not what is going on here. An expansion of the conflict by Al Qaida and other groups to attack not just NATO and the Afghan government but minority religious sects as well is more likely.
Expand the conflict, create more chaos, instill fear and lack of faith in the government. Those are the ways of the insurgent. Fear leads to anger, anger leads to hate, anger leads to more recruits and more water for the insurgent fish to swim in.
Tuesday, November 29, 2011
3-2 SBCT off to the 'Stan
3-2 SBCT deployment ceremony looking cold and rainy, just like every other ceremony on FT Lewis My old brigade, 3rd Stryker Brigade Combat Team, 2nd Infantry Division, is currently on its way to Afghanistan for the brigade's 4th deployment and its first to Afghanistan. For budgetary and other reasons I do not quite understand they have left their Strykers behind and will be utilizing MRAPs instead.
Had I chosen to take a company command within the brigade instead of running off to southern Arizona I would most likely be joining them. Part of me really wishes that I were going.
Good luck Arrowhead.
Wednesday, November 23, 2011
Civilian to veteran interactions: Part II
If you have some free minutes, please take the time to read this article by Crispin Burke. In case you're curious, Crispin is an Army pilot and a major...but I try not to hold those against him. He has his own blog over at Wings Over Iraq. Tom Ricks was wise enough to host MAJ Burke's article.
The article itself is about how the author dislikes telling people he's in the military because of all the follow up questions he inevitably gets. I completely understand his reasonings and some of the questions he uses as examples make me cringe.
Now, I think it's understandable to ask someone questions when you meet them and learn what they do for a living...it's human nature. It's also polite and shows interest in what that person does. However, there are certain questions that are just plain inappropriate and I'll share some of the more irritating questions I've received in a bit.
The author goes on to explain the two general reactions that service members and veterans encounter that often make us feel uneasy The first is the hero-worship and lavish praise that, at least to me, is uncomfortable when coming from complete strangers. If you want to thank us for our service or buy us a beer, that's fine; but please, please, please do not go overboard and treat us like we're the second-coming of George Washington. A vast majority of us are not superheroes (except this guy), we're just human. Please treat us that way.
The second reaction is one of horror that we are in the military and that we are victims and should be treated as such. It's as if those individuals believe we were kidnapped from our mother's arms, forced into service, and then brainwashed to obey orders all day (for the record, I've been given only one order today, which is one more than yesterday, and that order was to go home at lunch...an order I will be following with unquestioned loyalty). Like I mentioned above, we're human and we can think for ourselves. Shocking statement I know.
So along with MAJ Burke's list of uncomfortable questions, here is my list of questions I've been asked that I dislike:
"What's Iraq like?" (How does one answer this question? Next person who asks this gets a snarky response along the lines of "it's a mystical place full of unicorns and Skittle rainbows!")
"Did you ever fire your gun?" (My dear sister asked me this once. In my opinion it's only a couple of steps away from the dreaded "did you kill anyone" question.)
"What's it like to kill someone?" (Ahh, there it is. Ask this and I automaticaly label you a douchebag who I will avoid interacting with in the future.)
"Are you a Fobbit?" (My dad asked this one. He did not know what the term meant and also did not know it's a derogatory word slung at support soldiers by combat arms so I'll give him a pass. Yes, my job kept me on the base most of the time. No, I did not avoid going "outside the wire", in fact, I did my best to get off the FOB.)
"When can you get out/When are you getting out?" (Not annoying if it's centered around me stating that I'm leaving the Army. Teeth-gnashingly irritating if it's someone I just met who thinks my time in the military is similar to a prison sentence. I think I might start asking teachers when they are getting out, see what their reaction is.)
"Where are the weapons of mass destruction?" (With Jimmy Hoffa and the Chicago Cubs' chances at a World Series.)
There you have it. A short lesson on what to do and what not to ask when a wild veteran appears. We are not victims nor are we Batman. We're just people.
The article itself is about how the author dislikes telling people he's in the military because of all the follow up questions he inevitably gets. I completely understand his reasonings and some of the questions he uses as examples make me cringe.
Now, I think it's understandable to ask someone questions when you meet them and learn what they do for a living...it's human nature. It's also polite and shows interest in what that person does. However, there are certain questions that are just plain inappropriate and I'll share some of the more irritating questions I've received in a bit.
The author goes on to explain the two general reactions that service members and veterans encounter that often make us feel uneasy The first is the hero-worship and lavish praise that, at least to me, is uncomfortable when coming from complete strangers. If you want to thank us for our service or buy us a beer, that's fine; but please, please, please do not go overboard and treat us like we're the second-coming of George Washington. A vast majority of us are not superheroes (except this guy), we're just human. Please treat us that way.
The second reaction is one of horror that we are in the military and that we are victims and should be treated as such. It's as if those individuals believe we were kidnapped from our mother's arms, forced into service, and then brainwashed to obey orders all day (for the record, I've been given only one order today, which is one more than yesterday, and that order was to go home at lunch...an order I will be following with unquestioned loyalty). Like I mentioned above, we're human and we can think for ourselves. Shocking statement I know.
So along with MAJ Burke's list of uncomfortable questions, here is my list of questions I've been asked that I dislike:
"What's Iraq like?" (How does one answer this question? Next person who asks this gets a snarky response along the lines of "it's a mystical place full of unicorns and Skittle rainbows!")
"Did you ever fire your gun?" (My dear sister asked me this once. In my opinion it's only a couple of steps away from the dreaded "did you kill anyone" question.)
"What's it like to kill someone?" (Ahh, there it is. Ask this and I automaticaly label you a douchebag who I will avoid interacting with in the future.)
"Are you a Fobbit?" (My dad asked this one. He did not know what the term meant and also did not know it's a derogatory word slung at support soldiers by combat arms so I'll give him a pass. Yes, my job kept me on the base most of the time. No, I did not avoid going "outside the wire", in fact, I did my best to get off the FOB.)
"When can you get out/When are you getting out?" (Not annoying if it's centered around me stating that I'm leaving the Army. Teeth-gnashingly irritating if it's someone I just met who thinks my time in the military is similar to a prison sentence. I think I might start asking teachers when they are getting out, see what their reaction is.)
"Where are the weapons of mass destruction?" (With Jimmy Hoffa and the Chicago Cubs' chances at a World Series.)
There you have it. A short lesson on what to do and what not to ask when a wild veteran appears. We are not victims nor are we Batman. We're just people.
Sunday, November 20, 2011
Love me some Somalia
Haven't written anything about Somalia in awhile, but not because there hasn't been anything going on in that little crap hole (is crap hole too harsh? Should I say dump? Or am I being too judgemental?) As I've mentioned before, Somalia fascinates me, mostly because no matter what else is going on I know I can take a look at the news in Somalia and say to myself "well the economy sucks here but at least it's not Somalia!".
I love mocking other nations. But maybe I'm just a cynical asshole.
Anyway...what's going on there these days? Kenya recently recently decided to jump into the mix after the African Union pushed Shabaab (the fundamentalist group/organization/militia fighting against the Transitional Federal Government) out of Moqadishu. Kenya entered into southern Somalia to remove the Shabaab threat in that area as well as help prevent violence from spilling over the border.
Ethiopia then decided it wanted in on some of that sweet Shabaab bashing action and sent troops into areas along its border. This is not a repeat from 2006. The government of Ethiopia is now denying that their troops entered into Somalia. Don't hide it Ethiopia. We all know Somalia is just a proxy war between you and Eritrea.
So Shabaab is now on the run and apparently can only conduct occasional attacks in Moqadishu against AU and TFG forces. On top of that Kenya is threatening to remove them from their strongholds in southern Somalia. Plus Ethiopia is likely to prevent the organization from fleeing to western Somalia and making a stand there.
What can Shabaab do? They could make an appeal to Eritrea for assistance but I don't know what good that will do. Eritrea is already in the dog house for covertly supporting Shabaab and any overt help would likely bring unwanted attention from the West like the Eye of Sauron staring down some defenseless Hobbits.
Beg big brother Al Qaida for help? That likely won't go anywhere since AQ has its own problems right now. Losing your leadership and facing constant pressure from scary UAVs in the sky makes one less inclined or capable to render assistance. Al Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula is a little busy in Yemen and Al Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb is...well hell, what has AQIM been up to? Oh, just kidnapping Europeans in Algeria. Yeah, go ask them for help Shabaab, I'm sure they'll get right on it.
I give Shabaab 6-8 months. Who knows though, they may pull a rabbit out of their hat and keep the chaos in Somalia going. Even if Shabaab is defeated though, I just can't see stability occuring in Somalia. It's just so unnatural.
I love mocking other nations. But maybe I'm just a cynical asshole.
Anyway...what's going on there these days? Kenya recently recently decided to jump into the mix after the African Union pushed Shabaab (the fundamentalist group/organization/militia fighting against the Transitional Federal Government) out of Moqadishu. Kenya entered into southern Somalia to remove the Shabaab threat in that area as well as help prevent violence from spilling over the border.
Ethiopia then decided it wanted in on some of that sweet Shabaab bashing action and sent troops into areas along its border. This is not a repeat from 2006. The government of Ethiopia is now denying that their troops entered into Somalia. Don't hide it Ethiopia. We all know Somalia is just a proxy war between you and Eritrea.
So Shabaab is now on the run and apparently can only conduct occasional attacks in Moqadishu against AU and TFG forces. On top of that Kenya is threatening to remove them from their strongholds in southern Somalia. Plus Ethiopia is likely to prevent the organization from fleeing to western Somalia and making a stand there.
What can Shabaab do? They could make an appeal to Eritrea for assistance but I don't know what good that will do. Eritrea is already in the dog house for covertly supporting Shabaab and any overt help would likely bring unwanted attention from the West like the Eye of Sauron staring down some defenseless Hobbits.
Beg big brother Al Qaida for help? That likely won't go anywhere since AQ has its own problems right now. Losing your leadership and facing constant pressure from scary UAVs in the sky makes one less inclined or capable to render assistance. Al Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula is a little busy in Yemen and Al Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb is...well hell, what has AQIM been up to? Oh, just kidnapping Europeans in Algeria. Yeah, go ask them for help Shabaab, I'm sure they'll get right on it.
I give Shabaab 6-8 months. Who knows though, they may pull a rabbit out of their hat and keep the chaos in Somalia going. Even if Shabaab is defeated though, I just can't see stability occuring in Somalia. It's just so unnatural.
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