Poor Database Management

In a shocking bit of news, ISAF has announced that the drop in attacks that was reported is not actually correct, it was a mis-count of the stats.

Here's another article on the situation by the Christian Science Monitor.

This bit of "whoops we kind of screwed up the data" doesn't shock me at all from this organization. I'm not suggesting that ISAF Joint Command is a bunch of bumbling idiots, but battle tracking doesn't really seem to be their strong suit. They can certainly track incidents that occur on a big map that is displayed, but getting those incidents into the database seems to be a challenge. A few times I've been on current operations floor and seen an incident or two displayed that I've tried to look up when I got back to my desk only to discover that the incident isn't in the database.

Same for the next day, and the day after.

Hell, even the target set that I'm currently assisting in, Green on Blue attackers who have fled, is not immune to this problem. In the past couple of weeks there have been multiple GoB attacks that we have "discovered" that somehow never made it into the database and had to be added.

How does this happen? Is it incompetence or an attempt to hide the truth?

From my perspective it is neither. It's just what happens when you have a large headquarters with multiple different nations attempting to do several things at once. Plates are going to get dropped.

I've mentioned this before, but it bears repeating...the number of attacks isn't even that critical of a metric to track when it comes to an insurgency. A low number of attacks in an area may indicate that the insurgency is defeated in that area, or that there are no security forces in that area and the insurgents actually control it. The flip side, a high number of attacks may indicate that insurgents are not in control and are trying to gain dominance.

So I suppose what I'm trying to say is, this failure by ISAF to properly account for attacks isn't that big of a deal. However, ISAF needs to get its shit together.

Ready For A Bit Of The Old Ultra-Violence

So other than defeating lawyers with nonsense words what has been going on in Afghanistan during the Winter lull prior to the start of the fighting season?

Well, ISAF/Coalition/US forces are methodically pulling out of all those smaller bases we (and by "we" I mean all those folks who were here when I was chilling in Iraq) had slowly and painstakingly established over the years. In most cases ISAF is handing the bases and outposts over to Afghan forces who hopefully are willing and able to continue the counter-insurgency operations ISAF troops were doing before. So what occurs when ISAF begins pulling troops out of these bases?

Violence of course. Those Taliban/Haqqanni forces still operating during the winter are attacking the retrograding troops as they pull out of those bases. As there are less and less ISAF troops the Taliban increases its attacks in order to attempt to retake territory previously lost. The article linked just discusses US forces but believe me, it's happening to other coalition partners as well.

We're also removing threats as they pop up. The author of the article makes it sound like the Special Forces shot the individual in cold blood on a base but that really wasn't the situation at all. Shocking, a news article that isn't accurate. Two quotes from the article I'd like to bring up:

“Even if he was supporting the Taliban, did the Americans have the right to kill him?” said Wali Khan, a Parliament member from Helmand...
 

Yes, yes we did. Why? Because of this other quote:

Mr. Khan was on the American military’s list of people to be killed or captured, known as the Joint Prioritized Effects List, according to officials
 

Don't get on my list people. It probably won't end well.
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Unicorns and Rainbows

About two weeks ago we had a target come up to my section for nomination that to me appeared pretty straight forward. Intel reporting stated that he was a weapons dealer for the Taliban and one of the reports mentioned a large amount of ammunition that he was acquiring.

The lawyer who reviewed the packet, however, determined that the reports just weren't quite good enough for them to fully approve the target. I argued the point about the report that mentioned the large quantities of ammunition and how from an analyst's perspective it was clear that he wasn't using that ammunition for good things. I was quite animated about it in fact and if you know me you know that I don't usually get worked up about things. The lawyer remained stubborn.

During the weekly update to the general about our target nominations the lawyer brought up her concerns about the target, specifically that only one report stated he was working for the Taliban and that the report of acquiring large quantities of ammunition didn't necessarily mean he was affiliated with the insurgency. Her argument was lengthy and I will admit, a bit convincing.

The general then looked at me for a rebuttal after the lawyer was finished, and I stated: "he's obviously not using *insert ammunition amount here* for unicorns and rainbows."

There was a bit of a stunned silence in the room as you can imagine. The general's reply?

"This target's good (for lethal nomination). Next."

I love beating a lawyer with nonsense.

Unless the ammo really was for rainbows and unicorns...oh hell, what have I done?

Al Qaida Is All Gone I Swear It!

Ahahahahahahaha

Hold on, need to catch my breath...

Hahahahahahaha

Apparently Pakistan's foreign secretary has his head buried in the sand. While I certainly assess Al Qaida's capabilities and size has been degraded, and much of its leadership killed/captured, Al Qaida is still very much active and running around in Pakistan.

If Foreign Secretary Jalil Abbas truly believes that drone strikes are unnecessary and that Pakistani security forces have eliminated Al Qaida from its territory then maybe he should take a little trip to the Federally Administered Tribal Areas and confirm this. Without a large military escort.

I want whatever Mr. Abbas is smoking, although I suspect he's just conducting some political posturing.

PowerPoint Really Does Make Us Stupid

Yeah, that's an actual PowerPoint slide

From my short time here at ISAF Joint Command it has become way too apparent that some people have an obsession with PowerPoint. It's almost as if they believe the PowerPoint slide they are working on will give that key piece of information that will defeat the insurgency here. They have it in their mind that their presentation is so glorious that GEN Allen will view it and state, "that's it folks, the Taliban can't possibly beat us now. Time to go home."

The other day I received a panicked call from someone in another analyst section asking for a target pack (basically a whole bunch of PowerPoint slides) on an individual. I was curious since this analyst doesn't have an action arm (ability to conduct a lethal strike) but I found an older packet on the guy and sent it. The analyst called again with even more alarm and informed me that there must be a more updated packet and she needed this urgently for a PowerPoint brief that was to be in 2 days.

Seriously?

Your lack of planning does not constitute an emergency on my part.

I've produced slides in the past couple of months that come back to me with so much added information on it as to make the slides pretty much unreadable and therefore useful to no one. Less is more people, especially when it comes to PowerPoint.

Excel on the other hand...

Teenagers, Ugh

I have blogged fairly recently about what I think will happen to Afghanistan after 2014 when most, if not all, international forces leave the country. But what do ordinary Afghans think? It's easy to sit up here at ISAF Joint Command and make assessements, it's the Afghans who actually have to face the current and future situation.

Luckily, the LA Times has provided everyone with an article interviewing average Afghans and asked them their view of the future...and by average I mean teenagers and 20-somethings who live a sheltered life in a gated section of Kabul. I had no idea a neighborhood like that existed. It's good to get their perspective but I take most of what they have to say with a grain of salt, especially when they say things like:

Tooba doesn't worry about what her life might look like after the departure of most U.S. and allied foreign troops next year.

"It will be the same," she says, nibbling a date. "This is a dangerous place for Americans, but not for Afghans."

And I thought I was out of touch up here at the IJC. I highly doubt rural Afghans who have daily dealings with the Taliban and other insurgents would agree with 16-year-old Tooba. Here's another gem:

"There are many modern men here in Afghanistan," Hazhir says, "so I don't think the war will begin again."


His friend Abdullah Hakimi, also 17, nods. "The Taliban just come with big turbans and long beards," he says between bites. "I think they look funny.… They are not as strong as people think."

These two are so out of touch I kind of feel sorry for them. Although I'm pretty sure I was a similar know-it-all-asshole when I was 17. I'm glad teenagers in Afghanistan are just as teentarded as teenagers in the States are (teen-tarded? I wish I could take credit for coming up with that word).

I prefer the attitude of the individual in the third part of the article. A 23-year-old shop owner whose family never left Afghanistan during the civil war and Taliban rule of the 90's. His cynical humor makes me smile and he's not completely naive about the future.

The ambition and dreams of the youths who were interviewed is to be admired. I feel for them and truely hope they are the future of Afghanistan. However, I believe many of them are in for a rude awakening come 2014 and beyond.

No Food = Revolution?

My Swedish Fish supplier emailed me this article by Matthew Lynn about how rising food prices may be a cause for revolutions in 2013. It's an interesting article that points out many regimes have fallen in the past due to food shortages and the rise of prices that accompany those shortages. Lynn points to Algeria, Greece, and possibly Russia and China as potential hotspots for revolutions this year.

While I agree with Mr. Lynn that food shortages/prices can certainly be one factor in a revolution (insurrections in Ethiopia during the 80s comes to mind), and I agree that it can be a spark leading to a revolution, but I do not believe high food prices or food scarcity is the primary cause of a revolution. In fact, I find one statement by the author as, well not wrong, but certainly not entirely factual as it ignores multiple other factors at play:

...a shortage of food and soaring prices led to strikes in Petrograd in 1917 — and sparked the Russian Revolution.  

I would argue the war with Germany, which was going poorly, and a strained economy were more of a factor in the Russian Revolution than food shortages in Petrograd...but I'm sure one could link everything together.

Revolutions in Russia and China this year seem highly unlikely since both those countries currently have regimes that are quick to subdue any potential revolts. Algeria is a possibility, but only because of Al Qaida In the Islamic Maghreb and Al Qaida linked elements currently operating in the region. I could see an argument that food shortages could cause an increasing amount of the population to side with AQIM and friends thus leading to a revolution but that's a stretch in my opinion.

Then there's Greece. I will admit I know little of the causes of the current problems facing Greece other than they are economic in nature but if revolution does occur, it will occur because of a tanked economy...food prices being only one part of that.

Mr. Lynn does have one statement in his article where he points out "there are other factors at play", but then wouldn't other factors be "at play" to prevent a revolt despite high food prices? If food prices really caused revolutions than why wasn't there any kind of violent revolution in Zimbabwe between 1999 and 2000, a time period of forced land redistribution and droughts caused food shortages and hyperinflation?

In any regard, it's an interesting article and a reminder that people don't just up and storm the streets over nothing.